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Daily News Brief

July 28, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering a tariff agreement between the United States and the European Union (EU), as well as...

  • Israel’s announced pauses in Gaza 
  • A ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand
  • China’s AI strategy
 
 

Top of the Agenda

The United States will tax most EU imports at 15 percent as part of a deal announced yesterday to avert a wider trade war. The EU will also commit to a $750 billion purchase of U.S. energy products. U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced some elements of the framework agreement after meeting in Scotland. Trump called the deal a major victory, while von der Leyen said it “creates certainty in uncertain times” and “was the best we can get.” 

 

Early details.

  • The baseline 15 percent tariff rate will cover goods including cars and pharmaceuticals, which are among the top EU exports to the United States.
  • Von der Leyen said the bloc’s commitment to spend on U.S. energy products would span a three-year period. She also said that both parties’ tariffs on some goods including aircraft, certain drugs, and some agricultural products would be reduced to zero.
  • Trump said current 50 percent U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum products would not be lowered for the EU, while von der Leyen suggested further talks could change this.  
  • France’s prime minister, Germany’s largest industry body, and some far-right groups in Europe criticized the agreement as submissive. European stocks rose after it was announced. 

 

The context.

  • The EU’s 15 percent rate is the same amount announced last week for Japanese goods but less than the 19 and 20 percent tariffs that the Trump administration set for some Southeast Asian countries. It does, however, exceed the 10 percent rate for goods from the United Kingdom. 
  • The Trump administration’s talks with countries including Canada and Mexico are still ongoing as its August 1 deadline approaches for higher tariff rates to take effect. Talks are also underway with China, though U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are not scheduled to rise until August 12. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is holding trade negotiations with a Chinese delegation in Sweden today.
 
 

“The constant change of tariffs has made it difficult for other countries to take the difficult steps—the domestically difficult steps—for them to address trade obstacles, protectionism, etcetera. So we’re making it harder for other countries, and it’s undermining our credibility in the meantime.”

—CFR President Michael Froman, Why It Matters podcast

 

Trump’s Tariffs and U.S. Inflation

A family shops in a Walmart Supercenter on May 15, 2025 in Austin, Texas.

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

The latest consumer inflation report, from June, showed a four-month high of 2.7 percent. A deeper dive into the data suggests that stagflation is an increasingly likely probability as tariff costs are passed onto consumers, CFR expert Rebecca Patterson writes in this article.

 
 

Across the Globe

“Tactical” pauses in Gaza. The Israeli military announced a start to daily ten-hour pauses in fighting in three population centers in Gaza to allow in more aid trucks. Israel has also increased permissions for aid airdrops and restarted the power to a water desalination plant. Humanitarian groups welcomed the permissions but said they were still not enough to address rising hunger in the enclave. Gaza’s health ministry said today that fourteen people died of malnutrition over the previous twenty-four hours.

 

Cambodia-Thailand truce. Leaders from the two countries agreed to halt hostilities across their border, according to Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who met with both sides in his capacity as the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The truce is due to begin at midnight local time today. It comes after at least thirty-five people have been killed in nearly a week of fighting along the border.

 

Trump’s threat to Russia. Trump told reporters today that he is “disappointed” in Russian President Vladimir Putin over the status of the war in Ukraine and that he would reduce a fifty-day deadline he gave Putin to reach a truce. Trump said on July 14 that he would impose “severe” tariffs on Russia’s trade partners if no peace deal was reached in fifty days. While Russia and Ukraine held bilateral talks last week, they did not yield immediate breakthroughs.

 

Sudan’s shadow government. The paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has been fighting the Sudanese army in the country’s civil war since April 2023, announced the composition of a self-declared rival government on Saturday. The step spurred fears of a lasting territorial split in the country. RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo is its president and Mohamed Hassan al-Taishi, a politician who served in Sudan’s transitional government prior to a 2021 military coup, is its prime minister. Regions including Darfur now have two rival governors.

 

China’s AI plan. Beijing on Saturday released an action plan for artificial intelligence (AI) following Washington’s release of its own plan last week. China said it aimed to encourage international cooperation on the regulation and development of AI, whereas the U.S. plan calls for blocking adversarial technologies out of its AI supply chains. Beijing debuted its plan at a Shanghai conference where two groups of Chinese AI companies also announced industry alliances to boost China’s AI ecosystem and reduce dependence on foreign technologies. 

 

Syria plans elections. Syria’s interim government plans to hold parliamentary elections between September 15–20, the head of the electoral body told state media. They would be the first elections held since the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad in December. One-third of legislators are due to be appointed by interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the other two-thirds elected. They will serve in an interim parliament until general elections at a future date.

 

Taiwan’s recall vote. An effort to recall twenty-four politicians from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party failed on Saturday. It was Taiwan’s largest such recall vote. The Democratic Progressive Party, which holds Taiwan’s presidency, holds only a parliamentary minority. It has accused KMT members of being too friendly to Beijing.


UN warning on refugees. Funding cuts to the UN refugee agency are already increasing migration to Europe, the agency’s head Filippo Grandi told the Financial Times. The Trump administration slashed its support for the agency this year by over $1.6 billion. With many African migrants moving toward Europe, Grandi urged donor countries to give money to countries already hosting large numbers of refugees such as Chad, Kenya, and Iran.

 
 

The Real Reasons for the Cambodia-Thailand Conflict

A Cambodian military personnel stands on a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher in Oddar Meanchey province, Cambodia, on July 25, 2025.

Soveit Yarn/Reuters

While long-standing border disputes explain some of the current violence, the escalation is primarily driven by Thai elites’ desire to consolidate military and royal power, CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick writes for Asia Unbound. 

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, ASEAN senior officials begin a four-day meeting on the environment in Malaysia.
  • Today, a two-day UN conference about a potential two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, organized by France and Saudi Arabia, begins in New York.
  • Today, the Inter-Parliamentary Union holds a summit of Women Speakers of Parliament in Geneva.
  • Tomorrow, the International Monetary Fund will release an update to its World Economic Outlook.
 
 

Health Care Under Fire

Rescuers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli strike near Rafik Hariri University Hospital, in Beirut, Lebanon, on October 22, 2024.

Emilie Madi/Reuters

The Middle East is at the center of a global crisis of military attacks on health care workers, Insecurity Insight’s Tim Bishop writes for Think Global Health.

 
 

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