June 25, 2020
Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.
Has cancel culture created a silent majority for Trump? You better believe it.
In 2016,
President Donald Trump consistently underperformed in presidential election
polls versus actual voting results leading up to his historic victory against
Hillary Clinton. In Florida, polls underreported Trump support by 2 percentage
points, in North Carolina by 3.3 points, in Ohio by 5.5 points, in Pennsylvania
by 3.5 points and Michigan by 4.1 points. Trump won with 49 percent of the vote
in Florida, 49.8 percent of the vote in North Carolina, 51.7 percent of the
vote in Ohio, 48.2 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania and 47.5 percent of the
vote in Michigan. How could this be? In 2016, there was a lot of social
pressure among families, friends and even professionally. If you were a Trump
supporter, you could expect personal ostracization from peers and employers. You
might be called a bigot. A racist. A fascist. A Nazi. You name it. And so, 2016
was a notoriously hard year to poll politically, given the fear of
repercussions among Trump supporters. In 2020, the climate of social fear is
arguably even worse. It’s cancel culture run amuck. So, what do we see in June 2020? Former Vice
President Joe Biden has a “comfortable” lead in the race, naturally. Biden
leads Trump by 10 points nationally, by 6 points in Florida, he’s tied in Ohio,
he’s up by 5.6 points in Pennsylvania and by 8 points in Michigan. In North
Carolina, surprisingly, the polls show Trump up by 0.5 points.
Video: BIDEN WATCH: Look who's talking about Tweets!
Gaffe-prone
former VP turned candidate for President of the United States Joe Biden uses
the topic of Trump's Tweets as a political weapon. But look at the crazy things
he says on his Twitter account. Is the mainstream media picking up on it? Nope. But Biden Watch is!
Trump-McConnell praised for 200th judicial confirmation
Americans for
Limited Government President Rick Manning: “President Trump has appointed and
had confirmed 200 federal judges. To put this into perspective, there are only
870 federal judges on the bench, meaning the President has already impacted
almost 23 percent of the federal judiciary. Why does this matter? You only have
to look at today’s ruling from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals to put a writ
of mandamus on the Judge Emmet Sullivan who was seeking to continue the prosecution
of Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn. The opinion overturning Judge Sullivan and demanding
he allow the Justice Department to dismiss the charges against Flynn was
written by Trump appointee Naomi Rao. Rao’s clear concise opinion that upholds
the rule of law and the Constitution is a refreshing change from the out of
control federal judiciary that we’ve become all too accustomed to. If you don’t
think judges matter, ask Lt. Gen. Flynn. To him, they made all the difference
in the world.”
Andrew McCarthy: Federal Appeals Court orders Judge Sullivan to dismiss the Flynn case
“The ruling is legally
sound, but I confess to being surprised. As I’ve explained, mandamus is a rare
remedy because appellate courts do not like to conclude that district judges
are in profound error and need to be corrected. My sense, after listening to
the oral argument nearly two weeks ago, was that the D.C. Circuit would
probably allow Judge Sullivan to go forward with the proceeding he had
scheduled for mid-July but would respectfully nudge him to follow settled law
and dismiss the case, which he has seemed disinclined to do. The appellate
court could then have reversed any further errors he made in the normal course
of litigation. Clearly, however, the panel majority decided Sullivan had gone
too far and needed more than gentle prodding. Thus, it has issued the extraordinary
mandamus writ. The majority ruled that Judge Sullivan’s recent orders,
encouraging the filing of amicus briefs and commissioning such a brief from
former federal judge John Gleeson in order to oppose the Justice Department’s
dismissal, impermissibly intruded the court into the deliberations of the
executive branch, flouting separation-of-powers principles. The panel found
that this process was already prejudicing the Justice Department. Judges Rao
and Henderson rejected the contention of dissenting Judge Robert L. Wilkins (an
Obama appointee) that the Justice Department’s interests were irrelevant since
it had not formally joined Flynn in seeking mandamus.”
Has cancel culture created a silent majority for Trump? You better believe it.
By Robert Romano
In 2016, President Donald Trump consistently underperformed in presidential election polls versus actual voting results leading up to his historic victory against Hillary Clinton.
Using the RealClearPolitics.com average of polls in the days before the election, polls underreported Trump’s support in key battleground states that he ended up winning.
In Florida, polls underreported Trump support by 2 percentage points, in North Carolina by 3.3 points, in Ohio by 5.5 points, in Pennsylvania by 3.5 points and Michigan by 4.1 points.
Trump won with 49 percent of the vote in Florida, 49.8 percent of the vote in North Carolina, 51.7 percent of the vote in Ohio, 48.2 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania and 47.5 percent of the vote in Michigan.
Nationally, polls underreported Trump’s nationwide support by 2.5 percentage points, when in the election he received 46.1 percent of the popular vote to Clinton’s 48.2 percent.
And those were the polls taken right before the election, which tend to be more accurate than those taken in the spring and summertime, which tend to oversample Democrats and appear intended to create panic in the GOP establishment and among voters, showing ridiculous lopsided margins against the Republican candidate.
At this point in the 2016 cycle, Clinton was leading Trump in polls taken across the country. A Quinnipiac poll in mid-June had Clinton up by 8 points in Florida, 47 percent to 39 percent. Off by 10 points to final outcome.
In early July an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll had Clinton up 6 points in North Carolina, 44 percent to 38 percent, a lead that would supposedly grow to 9 points by early July, 48 percent to 39 percent. Trump’s actual support was off by almost 11 points.
A PPP poll from late June had Clinton up by 4 points in Ohio, 44 percent to 40 percent. Off by almost 12 points.
An NBC/Marist poll had Clinton up by 9 points in Pennsylvania in late June, 45 percent to 36 percent. Off by 12 points.
In Michigan in early July she was said to be up 7 points according to Gravis, 48 percent to 41 percent. Off by 6.5 points.
Nationally, a late June ABC News/Washington Post poll had Clinton up 12 points, 51 percent to 39 percent. Off by 7 points.
These consistently inaccurate polling results defeated the predictive model of Nate Silver in the 2016 election, which said that state polls predict the outcome of presidential races. The bogus assumption then was that the polls would be accurate. They weren’t.
How could this be? In 2016, there was a lot of social pressure among families, friends and even professionally against Trump. If you were a Trump supporter, you could expect personal ostracization from peers and employers.
You might be called a bigot. A racist. A fascist. A Nazi. You name it.
And so, 2016 was a notoriously hard year to poll politically, given the fear of repercussions among Trump supporters. In 2020, the climate of social fear is arguably even worse. It’s cancel culture run amuck.
Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar Group, the only poll that called the 2016 race for Trump in Michigan, says in 2020 the race is a dead heat and that “social desirability bias” is “worse than it was four years ago.”
The goal was to make it socially unacceptable to support Trump. Instead, all that’s been accomplished is driving his support underground.
So, what do we see in June 2020? Former Vice President Joe Biden has a “comfortable” lead in the race, naturally. Biden leads Trump by 10 points nationally, by 6 points in Florida, he’s tied in Ohio, he’s up by 5.6 points in Pennsylvania and by 8 points in Michigan. In North Carolina, surprisingly, the polls show Trump up by 0.5 points.
In fact, Trump is ahead of where he was in 2016 at this point in the race, leaving Biden in a deceptively weak position compared to Clinton. If we’re seeing a similar cycle as last time, as the summer goes on and we hit the presidential nomination conventions, watch for Trump’s picture to improve somewhat, take a nose dive in the fall with <insert media-driven narrative catalyst here> and then by late October it will be a “dead heat.”
We’ve seen this movie before. It’s the one where the incumbent usually wins.
A silent majority? You better believe it.
Robert Romano is the Vice President of Public Policy at Americans for Limited Government.
To view online: http://dailytorch.com/2020/06/has-cancel-culture-created-a-silent-majority-for-trump-you-better-believe-it/
Video: BIDEN WATCH: Look who's talking about Tweets!
To view online: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vdkpb0fm4sU
Trump-McConnell praised for 200th judicial confirmation
June 24, 2020, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government President Rick Manning today issued the following statement praising President Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) for getting the 200th judge confirmed since Jan. 2017:
“President Trump has appointed and had confirmed 200 federal judges. To put this into perspective, there are only 870 federal judges on the bench, meaning the President has already impacted almost 23 percent of the federal judiciary.
“Why does this matter? You only have to look at today’s ruling from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals to put a writ of mandamus on the Judge Emmet Sullivan who was seeking to continue the prosecution of Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn. The opinion overturning Judge Sullivan and demanding he allow the Justice Department to dismiss the charges against Flynn was written by Trump appointee Naomi Rao. Rao’s clear concise opinion that upholds the rule of law and the Constitution is a refreshing change from the out of control federal judiciary that we’ve become all too accustomed to. If you don’t think judges matter, ask Lt. Gen. Flynn. To him, they made all the difference in the world.
“Due to President Trump’s aggressive approach to finding and appointing constitutionally solid jurists, it is fair to say the federal judiciary has been changed for a generation. President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell have done a great job of tag-teaming judicial nominations and deserve the thanks of those of us who believe in constitutional limited governance.”
To view online: https://getliberty.org/2020/06/trump-mcconnell-praised-for-200th-judicial-confirmation/
ALG Editor’s Note: In the following featured column from the National Review, Andrew McCarthy unpacks the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals decision order Judge Emmet Sullivan to dismiss the case against former National Security Advisor Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn:
Federal Appeals Court orders Judge Sullivan to dismiss the Flynn case
By Andrew C. McCarthy
A divided panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals this morning ordered Judge Emmet Sullivan to grant the Justice Department’s motion to dismiss the indictment against Michael Flynn, who fleetingly served as President Trump’s first national-security adviser.
In a majority ruling written by Judge Naomi Rao and joined by Judge Karen LeCraft Henderson, appointees of Presidents Trump and Bush 41, respectively, the court held that the executive branch has the constitutional power of prosecutorial discretion, including the authority to decide which cases to charge and whether to persist in charges once they’ve been brought. This power is in tension with Rule 48(a) of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure, which requires the Justice Department to seek “leave of the Court” before dismissing an indictment. While not deciding the potentially legitimate parameters of this requirement, the majority reasoned that it is for the protection of defendants from prosecutorial harassment.
Relying on the D.C. Circuit’s 2016 Fokker precedent, the court found that Rule 48(a) does not permit a thoroughgoing inquiry into the executive branch’s reasoning for dismissal — at least in a case in which the accused joins the prosecution in seeking a dismissal with prejudice (such a dismissal stands as a final judgment and bars the government from re-charging the defendant with the same offense at a later date).
The ruling is legally sound, but I confess to being surprised. As I’ve explained, mandamus is a rare remedy because appellate courts do not like to conclude that district judges are in profound error and need to be corrected. My sense, after listening to the oral argument nearly two weeks ago, was that the D.C. Circuit would probably allow Judge Sullivan to go forward with the proceeding he had scheduled for mid-July but would respectfully nudge him to follow settled law and dismiss the case, which he has seemed disinclined to do. The appellate court could then have reversed any further errors he made in the normal course of litigation. Clearly, however, the panel majority decided Sullivan had gone too far and needed more than gentle prodding. Thus, it has issued the extraordinary mandamus writ.
The majority ruled that Judge Sullivan’s recent orders, encouraging the filing of amicus briefs and commissioning such a brief from former federal judge John Gleeson in order to oppose the Justice Department’s dismissal, impermissibly intruded the court into the deliberations of the executive branch, flouting separation-of-powers principles. The panel found that this process was already prejudicing the Justice Department. Judges Rao and Henderson rejected the contention of dissenting Judge Robert L. Wilkins (an Obama appointee) that the Justice Department’s interests were irrelevant since it had not formally joined Flynn in seeking mandamus.
Judge Wilkins would have permitted Judge Sullivan to proceed with the hearing the latter had scheduled for mid-July, and to conduct some measure of exploration into the Justice Department’s motives. As the majority countered, Fokker and the Supreme Court jurisprudence on which it relied simply do not allow for “any substantial role for courts in the determination whether to dismiss charges.”
In granting mandamus, the court directed Judge Sullivan to permit the Justice Department to dismiss the case, notwithstanding that Flynn had pled guilty to a false-statements charge. Flynn had moved to vacate his plea, arguing that he had been coerced into it and that the government had withheld exculpatory evidence — part of a pattern of what Flynn’s counsel, Sidney Powell, alleged was outrageous misconduct warranting dismissal of the charges.
The Justice Department reviewed Flynn’s case at the direction of Attorney General Barr. The review was done by St. Louis U.S. attorney Jeffrey Jensen, a longtime federal prosecutor and former FBI agent. The DOJ concluded that there had been no basis for the FBI to investigate Flynn, and therefore that any alleged misstatement he’d made in a January 24, 2017, interview could not have been material to a legitimate government investigation, as the false-statements statute requires. The DOJ thus moved to dismiss. The panel majority endorsed this course of conduct, reasoning that the government should be encouraged to self-correct if it perceives it has been in the wrong.
To the extent Flynn sought to have the case reassigned to another district judge, the D.C. Circuit denied that application. Obviously, the court expects that Judge Sullivan will carry out its instruction. At oral argument, Judge Sullivan’s counsel assured the panel that he is an experienced and well-regarded judge, who would do what the law requires. While it is possible that Sullivan could ask the full D.C. Circuit Court (i.e., all of its active judges) for an en banc review of the panel ruling, he has little to gain from such a move and will look worse if he is rebuffed. The Flynn case has been a travesty from beginning to end, and it’s past time to drop the curtain.
To view online: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/06/federal-appeals-court-orders-judge-sullivan-to-dismiss-the-flynn-case/