The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the global economy to shrink by nearly 5 percent (WaPo), worse than the 3 percent drop predicted in April. This would cost the world $12.5 trillion in lost output by the end of next year. 

Officials attributed the cost to social distancing, lockdown measures, and new hygiene and safety rules. For comparison, the world’s economy shrank by 0.1 percent in 2009 after the Great Recession (Guardian). The IMF detailed a “catastrophic hit” to the global labor market, and said the equivalent of three hundred million full-time jobs could be lost (WSJ) in the second quarter of this year. It also said it would take two years for the economy to recover to its pre-pandemic state and warned governments against removing financial support to their economies too quickly.

The United States and South Korea urged North Korea to abide by its peace agreements (Korea Times) with them today, the seventieth anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War. Their statement came amid heightened tensions between Pyongyang and Seoul.
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China: The U.S. Defense Department determined that twenty Chinese companies, including telecom giant Huawei and surveillance company Hikvision, are backed by China’s military (Reuters). The determination could lead to new sanctions.

Pakistan International Airlines said it would ground more than a quarter (RFE/RL) of its 426 pilots after a government probe found that they had “dubious” licenses. The decision followed a plane crash last month that killed nearly one hundred people, which Pakistan’s aviation minister attributed to pilot error.
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India: The country reported nearly seventeen thousand new cases of coronavirus today (NDTV), eclipsing its single-day record set yesterday.

The United States said it would seek the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran (AP) if an arms embargo set to expire in October is not extended. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that without the embargo, Tehran could buy advanced weapons systems and provide them to terrorist groups.

CFR’s Philip H. Gordon and other experts discuss U.S.-Iran tensions at this virtual meeting.
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Israel: Palestinian officials condemned Israeli soldiers’ killing (Al Jazeera) of Ahmed Erekat, a twenty-seven-year-old man, claiming he was denied medical care after being shot. Israeli security forces said Erekat had injured a soldier while trying to ram his vehicle into a security checkpoint.

State and private media reported that opposition leader Lazarus Chakwera leads with 55 percent of the vote in the rerun of Malawi’s presidential election (Reuters), though there is not yet an official count. President Peter Mutharika won last year’s election, which a court overturned.
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CFR’s Michelle Gavin explains how the court’s decision could be a lesson for other countries.

DRC: Police used tear gas and water cannons to clear protesters who had gathered outside Parliament to oppose a law that would place prosecutors under the government’s authority rather than the court’s. Opponents say this would undermine the country’s judiciary (Reuters).

Kosovar President Hashim Thaci was indicted on ten counts of war crimes (NYT) for his role in Kosovo’s war for independence from Serbia in the 1990s. Thaci was due to visit the White House on Saturday for talks with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, but has canceled the trip.
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Poland: U.S. President Donald J. Trump said he would likely redeploy some U.S. troops (NPR) from Germany to Poland after meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda, who is seeking reelection, at the White House.

The United States imposed sanctions on five Iranian ship captains for delivering oil to Venezuela (Reuters) and warned mariners against doing business with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The United States recognizes opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim president.
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Guatemala: A Guatemalan official accused the United States of deporting more than two dozen people who tested positive for the coronavirus (WSJ) despite agreeing to prevent such deportations. A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) spokesperson said the United States does not deport migrants who test positive or are symptomatic.

Senate Democrats blocked a Republican police reform bill (WaPo), saying it would not bring meaningful change. Democrats are pushing a more expansive measure, which Senate Republicans and the White House oppose.