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ASI Bulletin: Out, damned State Pension! out, I say!
Is the Government keeping its promises? When will the State Pension collapse? How can we stop the Wealth Exodus? Find out what’s really going on - in our latest bulletin.
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IN THIS ASI BULLETIN
From Dr Eamonn Butler:
WE HAVE some good stuff on the blog. Why don’t you write for it?
NEW TRACKER: How good are governments at balancing the books? (Trick question?—Ed.)
WHY NORWAY isn’t a socialist country.
But first…
The editor tells me that my ‘but first’ sections are making the Bulletin too long. He wants me to confine it to three short jokes. So here they are:
1. Ed Miliband’s Net Zero policy.
2. Rachel Reeves’s growth forecasts.
3. The belief that the UK is a free country.
True, they’re not very funny jokes, but I’m just obeying orders. Reply and let me know what you think the Bulletin should look like in the future.
But I (briefly) digress...
ASI TRACKERS
State Pension — it's dead, Jim
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New Adam Smith Institute research warns that the state pension could become insolvent by 2036 - even after tax hikes.
The ASI’s updated dynamic model shows the pension system heading for fiscal collapse: the point when welfare payouts, mostly pensions, outstrip National Insurance receipts. Despite increases in Employer National Insurance Contributions, insolvency may only have been delayed by a year — the previous forecast was 2035. This is thanks to the ‘triple lock’, which ratchets up costs faster than revenues can keep pace. The looming crunch threatens the future of the public finances.
Government Accountability
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We have now launched an Accountability Tracker. Using clear KPIs (Aren’t they nuts?—Ed), it measures how well governments deliver their own targets. Fresh analysis shows that this government is largely hitting its spending promises but failing on the economy.
On the spending side, the government is on course to add 2 million NHS appointments, hire more mental health staff and boost defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027. But economic growth has averaged just 0.09% per month since July 2024 -- far below the 2.5% annual target by 2029 -- and Inflation has climbed to 3.4%, missing the 2% goal.
The fact that the government is meeting its spending pledges while failing on the economy spells trouble, hinting at more borrowing and higher taxes.
NEW RESEARCH
The Prosperity Package
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In collaboration with Onward, The Adam Smith Institute has proposed The Prosperity Package to address the UK’s ongoing wealth exodus. With the abolition of the non-dom regime and talk of a wealth tax, high net worth individuals are leaving - taking investment, spending, and tax revenue with them.
The package offers a 15-year exemption from foreign income, capital gains, and global inheritance tax, in return for a £3 million upfront investment in strategic sectors and a £300,000 annual contribution. Participants must use private services, undergo due diligence, and receive no access to public funds. Economic modelling suggests it could deliver £30.5 billion in GDP growth and £13 billion in tax revenue over 10 years, with just 1,000 participants in year one. Polling shows strong public support, including from Labour voters, for targeted incentives tied to investment and contribution.
MEDIA
Our State Pension Tracker was a roaring success and was covered in The Times (twice), The Express, Guido Fawkes, City AM, GB News, (even) The Daily Star and a host of other outlets. What's more, Maxwell Marlow penned a fantastic op-ed in The Spectator, complimenting the research.
Our own Emma Schubart was in Cap X explaining how the FCA is suffocating the City while Seb Charleton was on BBC Scotland explaining why plans to make bus travel free in Scotland will backfire. And, Charles White-Thomson, Senior Fellow of the ASI, was in The Express and The Spectator making the case for using KPIs to hold our politicians to account.
Finally, The Prosperity Package made a big splash, appearing in The Times (twice), Times Radio and City AM.
UPCOMING EVENTS
The Next Generation with Claire Coutinho MP
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Join us for another Next Generation drinks on Tuesday, 2nd September!
This time, we're delighted to be chatting with the Rt. Hon. Claire Coutinho MP, the Shadow Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero. She previously held her Cabinet position in government, as well as ministerial positions in the Departments for Education as well as Work and Pensions. The Conservative MP for East Surrey since 2019, Claire is a former banker and aspiring Brillat-Savarin. She’s coming to discuss the UK’s energy crisis, and how we can make British electricity cheaper by building more energy sources and innovating new ones.
Please note this event is exclusively for under-35s.
PAST EVENTS
The Next Generation with Katie Lam MP
Katie Lam MP, shadow Home Office minister - and award-winning lyricist and playwright - came to talk about the storied history that England has had with liberalism. She explored what we could draw from the past, and what that tells us about the future. Katie argued that, in England, the real liberals are conservative.
Prof. Alain Bertaud on planning
Professor Alain Bertaud, author of Order Without Design: How Markets Shape Cities, is former Principal Urban Planner at the World Bank, a Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Mercatus Center and a senior research scholar at the New York University Marron Institute of Urban Management. So he knows a bit about urban planning, and came in to explain how we need a decentralised planning and housing policy
Attendees heard Bertaud explain how liberal economics and organic urban planning could be the solution to our housing crisis.
ASI ONLINE
On the blog
Have you ever thought of writing for the Adam Smith Institute superblog? We are always keen to hear new ideas from new writers. Contact [email protected].
Maxwell Marlow tells us that No, Lord Kinnock, a wealth tax is a dreadful idea!
Madsen Pirie asks What has Margret Thatcher ever done for us?
Joanna Marchong provides her take on Public goods.
Eamonn Butler sets out Ten policies a classical liberal would like to see introduced in the UK.
Tim Worstall argues that We’ve tested Modern Monetary Theory and it doesn’t work.
VIDEOS
Why Norway isn't a Socialist Country.
And I quote …
AND I QUOTE…
Given the prospect of a wealth tax appearing in this Autumn’s Budget, here’s a good point raised by the late great P.J. O’Rourke:
There is no such thing as a person’s ‘fair share’ of wealth. The gross national product is not a pizza that must be carefully divided because if I get too many slices, you have to eat the box. The economy is expandable and, in any practical sense, limitless.
Bye,
e
Dr Eamonn Butler
OUR SOCIALS
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