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July 23, 2025

Welcome to The Lighthouse, the weekly email newsletter of the Independent Institute covering politics, economics, current events, and everything in between.

Dear Readers,

President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil, accusing the country of carrying out a “witch hunt” against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro is facing charges of plotting a coup to block the current president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, from taking office back in 2023. The proposed tariff would be the highest rate set since the extended July 9th pause in additional import taxes.

Focusing on this issue, Alvaro Vargas Lllosa points out how interventionist posturing actually props up authoritarian regimes abroad. While the tariffs are ostensibly to punish Lula’s prosecution of Bolsonaro, the danger of wielding trade as a geopolitical tool risks freedom both abroad and domestically.

Also this week, Brady Leonard highlights a small but meaningful victory hidden among the Big Beautiful Bill.

Ricardo E. Calvo argues that Cuba’s future requires substantial reform, not window dressing.

Samuel R. Staley warns that uncertainty is itself an economic cost.

Allen Gindler provides insight on the boom-bust cycle.

Happy reading!

Jonathan Hofer
Managing Editor

Top picks this week
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** Trade War with Brazil? Why Trump’s Tariff Threat Makes No Sense ([link removed])
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** by Alvaro Vargas Llosa
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Trump’s tariffs on Brazil are more likely to strengthen the very regime he’s trying to punish.
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** The Second Amendment Victory in GOP’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” ([link removed])
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** The mandatory $200 tax stamp on suppressors will be eliminated January 1st. ([link removed])
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** by Brady Leonard
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Slashing the suppressor tax is a rare rollback of prohibitive firearm regulation.
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** The Big Challenge: De-Socializing Cuba ([link removed])
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** Cuba cannot be free until socialism is not just reformed, but fully dismantled. ([link removed])
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** by Ricardo E. Calvo MD, PhD
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Cuba’s days of hesitation and ambivalence must end, and the days of worrying about trivial emotions must be left behind.
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** The Tariff Whipsaw: How Uncertainty Undermines Economic Growth ([link removed])
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** by Samuel R. Staley
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Uncertainty, even more than individual policies consistently applied, is the silent killer of jobs and private investment.
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** Boom and Bust: Rethinking Austrian Business Cycle Theory ([link removed])
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** Estimating the natural interest rate and problems with the Fed ([link removed])
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** by Allen Gindler
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Fed independence still beats presidential improvisation, though neither belongs in a free market economy.
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** FEATURED BOOK
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** The 1619 Project Myth ([link removed])
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** By Phillip W. Magness
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“There is no one better to pick apart the disastrous 1619 Project than Phil Magness. If every classroom that incorporated the 1619 Project into its curriculum replaced it with this book, the country would be better off.”

—Coleman Hughes, host of Conversations with Coleman, visiting professor at the University of Austin
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