“Republicans just can’t count on Trump’s more peripherally-engaged voters to show up when Trump isn’t on the ballot.
So far in 2025, the partisan intensity gap looks awfully similar to the one at this point in 2017.
...across two House special elections... Democrats have been averaging 63% of Harris’s 2024 vote totals while Republicans have been averaging just 45% of Trump’s.
If that pattern were extrapolated across all 435 districts next fall, Democrats would win a whopping 279 seats — 61 more than they need for a majority.”
[Source: Cook Political Report] |