July 18, 2025

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

Early Midterm Poll: Swing Voters Moving Right By Double-Digits Plus College Educated Moving Back Toward Republicans?  

By Manzanita Miller  

We have covered at length the vast, often double-digit shifts among swing voters — notably young, minority and independent voters — toward President Donald Trump between 2020 and 2024, with some left-wing pundits speculating the momentum would not last. However, with each survey we cover leading into the midterm election cycle, swing voters appear to be shifting rapidly away from Congressional Democrats just as much as they fled from the Kamala Harris campaign.   

A blistering new survey from Echelon Insights fielded July 10-14 finds that swing voters are shifting by double-digits toward Congressional Republicans in a generic Congressional ballot.    

Young voters, a group that has been causing Democrats a significant headache by moving toward President Trump in the 2024 election, appear to be on track to vote for Congressional Republicans at a significantly higher rate than they did even three years ago in the 2022 midterms.  

The Echelon survey shows young voters still supporting Democrats next year, but by a mere eleven percentage points, 51 percent to 40 percent. Just three years ago, Democrats won young people by 28 points, 63 percent to just 35 percent according to CNN exit polls. This would cut Democrats’ advantage over Republicans from 28 points to 11 points.     

Black voters — while still broadly supporting Democrats — are showing one of the largest shifts toward Congressional Republicans compared to how they voted in the 2022 midterm cycle. The Echelon survey reveals nearly a fifth (19 percent) of Black Americans plan to support Republicans, while 73 percent plan to support Democrats, which translates to Democrats winning their vote by 54 points.   

This is a substantial shift from just three years ago, when Democrats won Black voters by 73 points, 86 percent to 13 percent. This would cut Democrats’ advantage over Republicans from 73 points to 54 points, a nineteen-point difference. Compared to 2018, the shift is even larger. Democrats won Black voters by 79 points, 90 percent to eleven percent, just eight years ago.  

In the 2022 midterm elections under the ailing President Joe Biden, Democrats experienced a strong decline in support from Hispanic voters, and that decline appears to be holding. The Echelon survey shows a nearly identical share of Hispanics, 36 percent nationwide, plan to support Republicans in 2026. This is up from 29 percent in 2018, indicating that the Latino vote for Republicans rose significantly over the past eight years and has remained fairly steady from the Biden to the Trump terms, although other surveys have shown more signs of a shift towards Republicans. A spring 2025 UnidosUS survey for instance, found that over half of higher-earning Hispanics and half of Millennial Hispanics hold a favorable view of Congressional Republicans.   

Independents are also moving back toward the GOP, after supporting Democrats in the two most recent off-year elections, 2022 and 2018. The Echelon survey shows independents supporting Republicans by two points in 2026, 40 percent to 38 percent, after supporting Democrats by two points, 49 percent to 47 percent, in 2022. Compared to 2018, the shift is even larger. In 2018, independents supported Democrats by twelve points, 54 percent to 42 percent.  

While swing voters are moving toward the GOP compared to past midterm cycles according to early polls, groups that have been large supporters of the Democratic base are also moving away. For example, college educated voters are shifting toward the right.  

While the GOP maintains a strong advantage among Americans without a college degree, polls have been showing a shift back toward the Republican Party among college graduates. Perhaps burnt out by the perpetual chaos-stoking of the left, college-educated Americans are reconsidering the GOP.   

The Echelon survey shows Republicans winning Americans with a college degree by five points, 50 percent to 45 percent. This is a shift from 2022 when Democrats won college graduates by six points, 52 percent to 46 percent. It is an even more substantial swing toward the GOP compared to 2018. In 2018, college-educated Americans voted for Democrats by twelve percentage points, 55 percent to 43 percent.        

The potential loss of even college-educated voters is a signal that the Democratic Party is losing support at all levels. While the midterm elections are still fifteen months away, early surveys offer a look at how the midterm cycle could shape out. Democrats are at risk of continuing to lose members of the “Obama Coalition” — young, working-class and minority voters — and are also at risk of losing college-educated voters.  

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.  

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/07/early-midterm-poll-swing-voters-moving-right-by-double-digits-plus-college-educated-moving-back-toward-republicans/  

Import Prices Remain Flat As Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Elevated 

By Robert Romano 

Consumer prices increased slightly in June by 0.3 percent to an annual rate of 2.8 percent, but not because of imports, the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows, with import prices only rising 0.1 percent. In the past year, import prices are actually down 0.2 percent. 

The Federal Reserve has been holding interest rates at an elevated level since 2022 to deal with the crippling inflation that followed the Covid recession and global supply crunch, wherein production did not catch up to demand fast enough following the global economic lockdowns. 

The Fed raised the federal funds rate to 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent by the summer of 2023 and then performed three rate cuts last year down to 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent by December 2024. 

Now, as inflation has continued declining, the Fed has so far kept rates steady in 2025 while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says he is waiting for how President Donald Trump’s new tariffs he has been imposing since assuming office on Jan. 20 impact prices. 

So far, however, there has been no discernable price increases from the tariffs following implementation of much of the President’s initial tariffs through April, and that’s with the 10 percent global baseline tariff in effect, 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada for non-compliant USMCA goods, a 10 percent tariff on Canadian oil, a 25 percent tariff on vehicles and automobile parts, a 30 percent tariff on Chinese goods and a 50 percent tariff on steel and aluminum (excepting the UK which is at 25 percent).  

The President has also imposed a August 1 deadline looming for implementation of many of the other tariffs to take effect as the administration issues its letters to nations on the new rates, plus a 30 percent tariff on Mexico and the European Union, a 35 percent tariff on Canada, a 50 percent tariff on Brazil and a 50 percent tariff on copper.  

There are also 100 percent tariffs on Russia that could come if it fails to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine and another 200 percent on pharmaceuticals although the date is not certain there.   

Suffice to say, the tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China are already largely in effect, plus the 10 percent global baseline, and we’re still not seeing major jumps in prices. This is generally not too surprising, considering the minimal impacts that import prices have on the overall consumer price index but also one must take into account any weakening of foreign currencies that can also offset the price impacts of the tariffs.  

Other factors have included gradually increasing unemployment since January 2023, which is up more than 1.2 million that can have a lessening of demand impact on overall prices, plus the negative growth in the first quarter following consumers slowing down credit allocation. 

So far, the price hikes the President’s political opponents in the Democratic Party and also a couple in the Republican Party have proven to be incorrect. Gloom and doom can be used to frighten people but what actually happens is what truly matters. 

In the meantime, President Trump is coming out on top, able to reorient U.S. trade policy while the economy is buzzing along without too much price volatility, while the economy appears  resilient and now buoyed by the new tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. And the country still awaits lower interest rates, although the Fed could be keeping its powder dry for unemployment to increase more. Stay tuned. 

Robert Romano is the Executive Director at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.  

ALG Praises Congress’ $9 Billion Rescission Of USAID And CBP 

July 18, 2025, Fairfax, Va.—Americans for Limited Government Executive Director Robert Romano today issued the following statement praising the House and Senate for completing its work on a $9 billion rescission package  

“Congress has completed its work on the $9 billion rescissions package that will cut $8.4 billion in foreign aid and another $1 billion from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. For now, this will end needless state propaganda and aid operations that were harmful to U.S. interests at home and abroad and cuts of people who hate our guts, think America is evil and wish us harm. USAID in particular has been used to funnel money into censorship of American citizens and into supporting governments abroad that are adverse to U.S. interests and values. It’s also time for public broadcasting to sink or swim, do more pledge drives, sell some ad space or whatever it takes to continue operations for which there is demand. It’s been long enough.  

“Overall, the successful votes situate Congress in a strong position now for further rescissions under the rules that only require simple majorities in both the House and Senate. Congress could go further and reform the Impoundment Control Act if it wished to give the executive more discretion over impoundment, but for now, Congress should continue working through the President’s proposed rescissions so that taxpayers are not funding programs the President says no longer serve American interests and values at home and abroad.” 

To view online: https://getliberty.org/2025/07/alg-praises-congress-9-billion-rescission-of-usaid-and-cbp/