Everyone knows polling doesn’t matter … except for when it does. It might not be as predictive as we’d like it to be (‘16, ‘20, ‘24, anyone?), but polling provides at least a snapshot into the moods, temperaments, and temperature of the people who are paying attention, and, more importantly, those who are not.
And that’s often why we find ourselves saying, What the hell is going to break through with these MAGA people?! It’s not that they aren’t paying attention — they are often some of the most online people in the country. It’s what they’re paying attention to that matters.
This is where the Epstein files come into play — because this is something that MAGA has been paying attention to for years. They already know the whole story (or what they believe to be the story, anyway). They know the characters, the shadowy figures in the background pulling the strings, the heroes, the villains, etc., etc. So when the story gets turned on its head by the very same people they thought were the heroes, it has a good chance of moving the needle with them.
And, as Rick Wilson & Andrew Wilson show in this week’s Behind the Numbers, the needle is indeed moving.
At least for now.
So … what does all of this mean for other races, other polling, other candidates? It remains to be seen, to be sure, but the Wilsons have other polling from Virginia — which has a big election this fall — that should be a welcome sign for Dems and all of us.
Be sure to watch the episode and share out to your socials. We can’t do this without you. In fact, Lincoln Square IS you.
