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** Big Beautiful Bill Projected to Lead to Preventable Deaths
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Democrats have alleged that "tens of thousands" of people will die as a result of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The massive budget reconciliation bill, which President Donald Trump signed into law on the nation’s birthday, partially offsets lost revenue from tax cuts with reduced spending on Medicaid, the country’s health insurance program for low-income people.

Republicans, meanwhile, have denied those claims.

"It is not going to cause death. It’s going to keep people alive and it’s going to make our country successful," Trump said of the law in a July 12 interview on Fox News, calling the criticism a Democratic "soundbite."

But as Science Editor Jessica McDonald explains, it’s not just a soundbite. An analysis ([link removed]) from the University of Pennsylvania and Yale University estimated that the legislation’s changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act will result in at least 42,500 preventable deaths each year.

Dr. Rachel Werner, a co-author of the analysis and executive director of the Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics at Penn, told Jessica that it’s "incorrect to say that no one will die as a result" of the legislation. "There is strong evidence that Medicaid coverage saves lives," she said.

At the same time, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent, has been slightly overstating the projected mortality effects.

"51,000 Americans will die each year so that the top 1% can get a $1 trillion tax break," he wrote in a July 3 post on X. "This bill is a death sentence."

The higher figure of 51,000 does appear in the Penn-Yale analysis, but it includes additional deaths that are not part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act itself.

For more, read the full story, "Big Beautiful Bill Projected to Lead to Preventable Deaths ([link removed]) ."
HOW WE KNOW
When social media posts made the unfounded claim that the July 4 deadly flooding in Texas resulted from human attempts to modify the weather, in particular cloud seeding, we turned to experts. Katja Friedrich of the University of Colorado Boulder’s Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences has researched the subject. (Cloud seeding “had no influence on the outcome of the July 4th flooding,” she told us.) We also consulted Michael Wehner, a senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, who researches extreme weather events and the impact of climate change. Read more: "Weather Modification Played No Role in Texas Floods ([link removed]) ."
FEATURED FACTS
Of the total 647,572 noncitizens in the U.S. with criminal histories who were listed as being “non-detained” by ICE as of July 2024, 126,343 — or, about 20% — had “traffic offenses.” Another 92,075 had “immigration” offenses. In comparison, 14,944 were listed as having “homicide” charges; 20,061 were listed as having “sexual assault” charges; 105,146 had “assault” charges; 30,631 had “larceny” charges; and 21,106 had “fraudulent activities” charges. Not all of those listed in the data had been convicted. Of the 647,572 total, 222,141 — or 33% — had been only charged. Read more: "Border Czar Makes Misleading Claim About Immigrants With Criminal Records ([link removed]) ."
WORTHY OF NOTE
The Reuters Institute Digital News Report for 2025 ([link removed]) shows that the public is concerned about separating fact from fiction, and uses news sources, official sources and fact-checking websites when trying to verify information.

The report surveyed the public about news consumption habits. Among the findings: More than half of respondents worldwide are concerned about being able to discern what’s true and what’s false in online news, with nearly three-quarters (73%) of those in the United States expressing that concern.

“When it comes to underlying sources of false or misleading information, online influencers and personalities are seen as the biggest threat worldwide (47%), along with national politicians (47%),” the report said. In the U.S., those surveyed said politicians were the biggest threat (57%).

When asked where they would go if they wanted to check something they suspected “may be false, misleading, or fake,” 25% worldwide said ([link removed]) they would go to a fact-checking website, and the percentage was higher -- 32% -- in the U.S. alone, according to the U.S.-specific data the Reuters Institute shared with us. Among respondents in the U.S., that answer came behind “a news source I trust” (42%); a search engine (38%); and an official source, such as a government website (33%). Respondents were asked to select all choices that apply.

Among those who said they would use a search engine, 38% said a fact-checker would be the source they would mostly be looking for, while 41% said an official source and 35% chose "specialist website or expert." Again, respondents selected multiple answers.

The report is published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at the University of Oxford.


** Wrapping Up
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Here's what else we've got for you this week:
* "MAGA Ad Distorts How Massie Diverges from Trump ([link removed]) ": An attack ad by a super PAC called MAGA Kentucky targets Republican Rep. Thomas Massie — a longtime conservative foil of President Donald Trump — with claims that distort the congressman’s votes on some of Trump’s policy goals.

* "The CBO Breakdown on Medicaid Losses, Increase in Uninsured ([link removed]) ": The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the House version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would reduce Medicaid enrollment and cause millions of people to become uninsured by 2034. It didn’t say that “5 million” of the people who are “going to lose insurance” would have “other insurance” so “they’re still insured,” as National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett misleadingly claimed.

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