New York by the Numbers
Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook
No. 103 - July 2025
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Photo Credit: evgeeenius/Shutterstock
A Message from the Comptroller
Dear New Yorkers,
Did you miss us?! New York City’s conflict-of-interest laws prohibit elected officials from sending out communications during a “blackout period” in advance of an election when they’re on the ballot, so we haven’t been able to e-mail you our monthly Economic Newsletters and Spotlights since March. (We take the rule-of-law very seriously over here).
If you missed them, you can check out the Spotlights from those months on Student Loans and the Cost of Higher Education, [[link removed]] Job Quality in New York City [[link removed]] , the potential impacts of Trump’s Tariffs, [[link removed]] and Tourism’s Role in the NYC Economy [[link removed]] .
There’s been a lot of budget news as well. On June 30, the City Council adopted the City’s FY 2026 Budget. At $115.91 billion, it’s an increase of $842 million over the Mayor’s Executive Budget proposal released in May – with increases for childcare ($229M), rental assistance ($100M), and legal services for immigrants ($50M). One thing it does not include, unfortunately, is any deposits into the City’s rainy day fund or reserves, despite repeated calls from my office to add $1B to protect us from looming threats from Washington.
Alas, Trump’s Budget Reconciliation Bill poses grave risks for New York City and State budgets, and essential services that so many New Yorkers rely on. As we detail in our newsletter [[link removed]] , the bill will likely kick 2 million children off the Child Tax Credit, take health insurance away from 1.5 million New Yorkers, and cut over $13 billion in funding to New York State for health care.
Trump’s bill adds $4 trillion to the federal deficit and gives huge tax breaks to wealthy individuals and corporations. It increases funding for Immigrant and Customs Enforcement (ICE) by 500%—making it the largest federal law enforcement agency in history, ramping up Trump’s cruel efforts to detain and deport asylum seekers, often with no legal basis. Last month, as you may have seen, I was detained myself by ICE agents, while asking to see a judicial warrant and questioning their legal authority. I’ve been back every week since, and I’m afraid things have only gotten worse.
On the brighter side, our Spotlight [[link removed]] this month finds strong resilience in the NYC economy since the Covid-19 pandemic. The primary constraint on growth – no surprise – is housing. So look out for this month’s Fiscal Note [[link removed]] , which collects data on 44 completed, ongoing, and potential office-to-residential conversions totaling 15.2 million SF, which could absorb more than one third of the occupancy lost since the pandemic and produce approximately 17,400 apartments.
We’ll keep watching the numbers. And doing what we can to insist on the rule of law, too.
[[link removed]]
Brad Lander
Table of Contents
* The U.S. Economy [[link removed]]
* New York City Economy [[link removed]]
* City Finances [[link removed]]
Highlights
* The U.S. job market was mixed in July: overall payroll job creation was a bit above expectations, but all of the gain was concentrated in state & local government, healthcare and social assistance. Meanwhile, employment in the more cyclical sectors of the economy was essentially flat. Unemployment edged down, but so did labor force participation.


* Weekly jobless claims have remained subdued through early July, both nationally and locally.


* Regional consumer and business confidence have stabilized but at fairly weak levels as of June.


* The housing rental market has tightened further, while the sales market has been mostly flat. The Rent Guidelines Board recently approved a 3% rent cap for stabilized apartments for the coming year.


* The city's office market remains mixed but generally slack, aside from top-tier (5-star) properties in Manhattan. Estimated office attendance bounced back in June, both nationally and locally; New York continues to lead most major cities.


* The number of asylum-seekers in City shelters continued to trend down modestly in June; excluding asylum seekers, the shelter population was little changed.


* The City ended FY 2025 on June 30th with a cash balance of $12.2 billion, up nearly 20% from a year earlier, but about the same as at the end of FY 2023.
View the July Newsletter [[link removed]]
Spotlight
New York City’s Post-Pandemic Rebound: Resilience Meets Headwinds
This month's spotlight focuses on the city's economic rebound from yet another shock— the Covid pandemic-with a discussion of what makes the city so resilient, as well as what is constraining it from growing more rapidly (spoiler alert): housing.
Read More [[link removed]]
June: Student Loans and the High Cost of Higher Education [[link removed]]
June’s spotlight focuses on the brewing crisis in student loan debt, the high and rising cost of higher education, and proposed changes in federal policy and their potential effects.
May: The State of Job Quality in New York City [[link removed]]
May’s spotlight focuses on levels of and trends in the number of “good” jobs across New York City—jobs that are well compensated (in terms of both pay and benefits), stable (providing year-round, full-time employment), and meet basic safety thresholds.
April: Taking Trump’s Tariffs Seriously: The Fiscal and Economic Impact for NYC [[link removed]]
April’s spotlight focuses on the economic and fiscal outlook for New York City, with an emphasis on risks arising from federal policy changes.
March: Tourism’s Role in New York City’s Economy [[link removed]]
This March spotlight focuses on New York City’s tourism cluster, tracking it over time, comparing it with other major cities, and assessing its impact on tax revenues
February: Access to Banking & Credit in New York City [[link removed]]
The February spotlight focuses on access to banking and consumer credit in New York City.
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Office of the New York City Comptroller
Office of New York City Comptroller Brad Lander
1 Centre Street
New York, NY 10007
United States
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