This much is clear: Donald Trump is in a full-scale panic. What started Saturday night with a long, rambling social media post has now turned into a full-blown crisis for him, his administration and the GOP. His effort to silence calls for the Department of Justice to release the Epstein Files has only served to broaden and amplify the voices insisting on transparency.

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July 16, 2025

I’m back again with another special newsletter addressing the fast moving Epstein Files crisis that has engulfed Trump and the GOP. I am sharing my full thoughts with all Democracy Docket subscribers given the importance of the subjects and their unique threat to democracy. I started Democracy Docket precisely for times like this — when accurate news, information and analysis about what is happening to democracy is imperative.

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This much is clear: Donald Trump is in a full-scale panic. What started Saturday night with a long, rambling social media post has now turned into a full-blown crisis for him, his administration and the GOP. His effort to silence calls for the Department of Justice to release the Epstein Files has only served to broaden and amplify the voices insisting on transparency.

Since then, he has tried various strategies to contain the damage: deny the files exist, suggest Epstein is irrelevant and even claim the files are forgeries. But within the last 24 hours, things have quickly escalated as Trump has gone into a full meltdown.

As of this morning, Trump is attacking his own base, lashing out at Republicans, and complaining about Democrats. His latest rant, posted only hours ago on Truth Social, attacks Republicans and — what he now calls — his “PAST supporters” who have abandoned him over the newly branded “the Epstein Hoax:”

“...these scams and hoaxes are all Democrats are good at - It’s all they have - they’re no good at governing, no good at policy, and no good at picking winning candidates… all these people want to talk about, with strong prodding by the Fake News and the success starved Dems, is the Jefferey Epstein Hoax.”

Trump’s efforts to talk his way out of this dilemma have backfired. His rambling style of speaking — moving from one incomplete sentence to an entirely different unrelated topic — often serves him well by distracting from the issue at hand. In this circumstance, however, it seems evasive and calculated, rather than carefree and free-flowing.

Trump’s message has increasingly boiled down to two points:

- Epstein is a minor figure that people should not care about.

- The Epstein Files are forgeries written by his political enemies, aimed at smearing him.

On the first point, as he stood on an airport tarmac, Trump’s dismissal of his supporters’ interest in Epstein was awkward and, well, weird: “He's dead for a long time. He was never a big factor in terms of life.” On the second, Trump claimed that “these files were made up by Comey, they were made up by Obama, they were made up by the Biden” administration.

This last point is the key and the one he seems most settled on today.

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It seems increasingly clear that Trump believes he is named in the files in some unflattering way and that their release is likely or inevitable. To hedge against that, he is trying to decrease the pressure on their release — by downgrading Epstein as a figure and shaming his own supporters who continue to promote their importance while at the same time discrediting the content of the files altogether as the product of Democrats.

Trump’s biggest problem? His claim that the files are the product of his political enemies is easily disproven.

First, there is the timing — Epstein was prosecuted, and thus the bulk of the files were created and collected under Trump’s first administration — not Obama’s and certainly not Biden’s.

Second, scores of career prosecutors and FBI agents have no doubt been involved in the collection and compilation of the files. They will know the truth and can easily dispute any claim of fabrication.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, Epstein’s accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell, can no doubt corroborate and expand on the contents of the files if she is ever called to testify publicly on the matter.

There are also increasing signs that Trump’s efforts to save himself are exposing his movement and his party to claims of lying, cover-up and hypocrisy. While many on the right — like Fox News — are toning down their coverage of the issue, others are not.

The biggest losers in this entire mess are Congressional Republicans. They are on record as being in on the Epstein conspiracy for years. Previously, they promised they would fight for the files to be released. Their voters — who they will face in 2026 — believe the files exist and must be made public.

Yet, the GOP voted yesterday in near unison to keep the Epstein Files a secret. And their so-called leader, Speaker Mike Johnson, has been transformed from a spineless coward into someone who simply spews gibberish: “I’m for transparency. We’re intellectually consistent in this… It’s a very delicate subject, but we should put everything out there and let the people decide it.”

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Nothing Johnson said is true:

- He is blocking transparency.

- The GOP is completely inconsistent on the release of the files.

- There is nothing delicate about this, other than potential embarrassment for Trump.

- Johnson and his conference are literally preventing the files from being released to let the “people decide.”

In contrast to Trump and the Republicans, Democrats are increasingly willing to raise the subject of the Epstein Files and seek their release. This is not just an 80/20 issue for Democrats (actually 79/4 according to a recent poll), but it also works effectively to galvanize the Party and send the other into disarray.

The fight over Epstein is energizing the Democratic coalition and it has been embraced across all factions of the Party. Meanwhile, it deeply splits Republicans in a way that harms their electoral prospects while sidelining Trump as someone who can fix these divisions — since he is the cause of them.

None of this is to say this issue will endure until 2026 — or even until next month. However, unless and until Trump can answer some basic questions, he will struggle to change this narrative. While he remains on defense, other Republicans, who are on the ballot next year, will suffer.

Faced with this reality, Trump will almost certainly seek to divert attention away from the Epstein Files to some other topic. The most obvious move is for him to escalate the weaponization of the DOJ against his political opponents, including appointing a new special prosecutor.

Will that work? It depends on two factors. First, does his base — which has been committed to this Epstein narrative for years — pivot with him or see it as another clumsy effort to distract from the current scandal? Second, does the legacy media treat that weaponization as a legitimate use of government power or an abuse in furtherance of a cover-up?

This is where things stand as of today. More later this week.

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