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Money Metals News Alert
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July 14, 2025 –
Gold prices rose last week while silver exploded higher -- gaining $1.39/oz (3.7%)
on Friday alone.
The Trump administration announced
plans for a 50% tariff on imported copper, leading to an immediate 10% up move in
copper prices that shook the silver market too.
Exchange of Futures for Physical (EFP)
premiums on silver are also back in the news. Traders who need physical COMEX bars
now are once again paying a hefty premium to get them.
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Gold : Silver Ratio (as of
Friday's closing prices) – 87.1 to
1
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Precious Metals Outlook: How Will 2025???s Second
Half Compare to the First?
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Gold and silver prices outperformed
nearly every asset class in the first half of the year. Geopolitical uncertainty,
a weaker U.S. dollar, the threat of tariffs, central bank gold buying and silver
inventory scarcity all contributed to stellar performance.
Since mid April, however, prices have
been range bound. The question is whether there is still some fuel in the tank to
power a strong second half of the year.
Let???s take a look at some of the
bullish factors as well as some of the risks, starting with gold.
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Bullish Gold
Factors:
-
Ongoing geopolitical
risks and potential trade disruptions from U.S. tariffs could sustain safe-haven
demand. For example, the war in Ukraine is ongoing, with the potential to
escalate. Likewise, plenty of uncertainty remains around tariffs. Last week, the
markets were roiled by the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper,
commencing in August.
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Central banks are expected to
continue to stockpile gold. This, along with investment demand from institutional
buyers around the world suggests global demand will remain strong.
- Inflation remains persistent.
The political pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is mounting. Some
speculate that Powell may not survive til the end of his term next year and will
be replaced by someone ready to meet the president???s demand for lower interest
rates.
- Gold is getting some buzz on
Wall Street with major banks forecasting higher gold. Bank of America is
anticipating $4,000 gold by early next year, while JPMorgan Chase has told clients
to expect $3,675/oz by the 4th Quarter.
Bearish Gold Risks:
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A stronger U.S. dollar
could pressure gold prices. So far this year, the U.S. dollar has had its worst
performance in 52 years relative to other major currencies. Some say the sell-off
in the dollar may be overdone.
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Bitcoin and U.S.
stocks are also performing well, though gains in the S&P 500 are lagging those of
gold. If the buzz currently surrounding gold shifts to other assets and
institutional money decides to go fully risk-on, the gold market could encounter
headwinds.
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- Geo-political uncertainty is
always a big driver in gold markets. Developments such as a peace deal in Ukraine,
or trade deals which put an end to questions over tariff policy could put a damper
on safe-haven buying.
Now let's take a look at silver…
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This week's Market Update was
authored by Money Metals Director Clint Siegner.
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