July 11, 2025

Permission to republish original opeds and cartoons granted.

 

Poll: Dems Fail To Gain Momentum After ICE Protests, Iran Strike And Passage of One Big Beautiful Bill

By Manzanita Miller

Democrats are continuing to struggle to gain ground in generic Congressional ballot polls, despite the midterm elections inching closer. The latest Real Clear Polling average has Democrats ahead of Republicans by just 2.4 points, and Cygnal, a polling organization that challenges mainstream narratives with data, shows Americans largely back President Donald Trump on deportation and the Iran missile strike, and say Trump keeps campaign promises better than most politicians.  

According to the latest Cygnal poll of 1,500 likely midterm voters conducted July 1-2, concerns over inflation are dropping as Trump’s tariffs take effect. In addition, half of Americans support ICE’s mission to deport illegal aliens (and Hispanic support has risen over the past two months), Americans largely support Trump’s nuclear strike.  

While Cygnal found Democrats ahead of Republicans in the generic Congressional ballot by a single percentage point, 47 percent to 46 percent, swing voters could present a challenge for Democrats. For example, college-educated males are split down the middle, with 47 percent intending to support Republicans and 47 percent intending to support Democrats. Suburban voters are narrowly leaning Democrat, 48 prevent to 47 percent. According to the survey 19 percent of Blacks and 40 percent of Hispanics are also intending to support Republicans, a historically significant swing if it materializes. 

According to the survey, concerns about inflation are dropping. Just 17 percent of Americans say inflation, or the economy are their top concerns, an 18-point decline since June. This is the first time first since September of 2022 according to Cygnal that inflation and the economy have not registered as the top concern to voters. Instead, threats to democracy (18%) has risen in priority among voters. Democrats, younger voters, and non-white voters all measured a marked decrease in concerns over inflation.  

The survey found strong support for President Trump’s approach to the tenuous Israel-Iran standoff, with 57 percent of Americans saying Trump was definitely or probably justified in destroying Iranian nuclear facilities. A larger share of voters (41 percent) say Trump was definitely justified than the share who say he was probably not justified (13 percent) or definitely not justified (22 percent). 

Even among left-leaning and swing voters, support for Trump’s approach to Iran is relatively strong. Independents say Trump’s moves were justified by seven points (49 percent to 42 percent), younger women agree by five points (47 percent to 42 percent), and even urbanites say Trump’s moves were justified by a narrow three points (47 percent to 44 percent). Union households support Trump’s moves by a resounding 16 points, 55 percent to 39 percent, and moderates support his moves by nine points, 50 percent to 41 percent.  

On ICE and deportation, Americans support the effort to deport illegals by two points, 49 percent to 47 percent. A full 36 percent strongly support the ICE deportation effort. Here, swing voters are more divided, with men, including college-educated men, forming the bulk of support for the deportation effort. Men over age 55 support the deportation effort by a full 29 points, 64 percent to 35 percent. Men under age 55 support deportation by 13 points, 56 percent to 43 percent. While Hispanics oppose the deportation effort by 17 points, 57 percent to 40 percent, a full 32 percent strongly support deportation. Married Americans support deportation by 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent and parents support deportation by seven points, 52 percent to 45 percent. 

The survey also found that half of voters believe President Trump keeps campaign promises better than most politicians, with 38 percent saying he keeps promises “much better than most”. According to Cygnal, among voters who switched from Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024, a full 78 percent say Trump keeps promises better than most, indicating that regardless of the mainstream media spin, newcomers view Trump as more trustworthy than the average politician.     

Despite attempting to divide Americans by using the ICE protests, criticizing Trump’s handling of the tense Iran-Israel standoff, and attempting to block the One Big Beautiful Bill, Democrats are ahead by a historically low margin compared to past midterm cycles, and have not grown that advantage over the past several months. Concerns over inflation are dropping significantly since President  Trump’s trade policies began to take effect, and voters — particularly newcomers to the GOP — say Trump keeps promises better than any politician.  

Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation. 

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/07/poll-dems-fail-to-gain-momentum-after-ice-protests-iran-strike-and-passage-of-one-big-beautiful-bill/

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White House Report: Import Prices Dropped From March Through May 0.58 Percent As August Tariff Deadline Approaches

By Robert Romano

“Are the prices just not passed through yet? No, I think what's happening is everything's evening out. You know, when we charge, see what people don't understand the other countries have been charging almost — every country charges us tariffs. We had deficits with everybody for years for… decades. And we were like this big monolith that made bad deals with everybody.”

That was President Donald Trump’s reaction at a July 8 Cabinet meeting at the White House to a question inquiring about a Council of Economic Advisors report showing that the price of imported goods has been in outright decline throughout 2025.

Citing data from the Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Council — a think tank inside the White House — found that the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price index for imported goods dropped 0.11 percent from January through May, and the Consumer Price Index for imported goods dropped 0.76 percent.

Focusing on March through May, the PCE Price Index for imported goods dropped 0.58 percent and the CPI dropped 1.04 percent. This was in the run-up and initial to President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs that began in April, but also the first rounds of tariffs announced against top trade partners Canada, Mexico and China in February. 

Throughout the process, critics of the President’s trade policies, including Democrats in Congress and a couple of Republicans, have insisted—without evidence—that prices would increase. They still haven’t, whether in anticipation of the February or April announcements, or in response to them.

The reasons for this are certainly dynamic, but a few factors to consider: Real inflation-adjusted consumer expenditures have slowed down slightly from 3.1 percent monthly in December to 2.2 percent in May, and consumer credit owned and securitized was in outright contraction from December through February and only grew at 0.4 percent in May compared to 9.9 percent near the peak of the inflation in May 2022. 

This shows lower demand, not surprising following the recent bout of inflation as households get their budgets in order and pay down debt. High interest rates also slow down consumer spending as big purchases are forestalled.

But besides those macro factors, there is also an element of anticipation of the tariffs by trade partners, who whether through currency weakening or just competitive pricing have to the ability to bring prices down to offset the tariffs, even if they haven’t been fully levied yet.

Meaning, with a slower economy in the first quarter, a drop of 0.5 percent in the real inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product, plus anticipation of the Trump tariffs, there is actually wiggle room for prices, defying the gloomy pessimism of the critics of the policy who maintained the sky was falling. 

Now, with the President’s August 1 deadline for trade negotiations looming, if and when there is a price increase, it might just be a one-time hike, with an open question of whether will it even exceed the preceding drops. 

In the meantime, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been keeping interest rates high throughout this entire discussion, even with central banks all over the world cutting rates in the midst of a drop in global demand, and as consumer inflation continuing to slow, currently at 2.4 percent over the preceding twelve months as of May.

To be fair, usually the central bank will keep rates elevated following an inflation event until unemployment ticks up significantly. 

At the moment, the unemployment rate is relatively low historically at 4.1 percent, although elevated from its 3.4 percent low from April 2023. And, since Jan. 2023, the overall unemployment level has in fact increased by 1.26 million to its current 7 million. Which is what usually happens when prices and demand slows down. Is that significant enough?

For his part, President Trump still thinks there’s room to lower the rates, noting the rate cut last September during the election at the Cabinet meeting, “We should get somebody in there that's going to lower interest rates… I think he's terrible. I think look, we're paying I call him too late. Too late. Like two tall Jones for the Dallas Cowboys, right? Too late. Uh he's always late, but he wasn't late with Biden before the election. He was cutting him like crazy. It didn't help too much, did it? But he was cutting them like crazy before the election with Kamala and Biden. He was trying to get them in, I guess.”

In other words, the slowing economy and rising unemployment was enough to prompt an interest rate cut last year, so what about now? Not every prediction will turn out to be true, so when the Fed does finally resume cutting rates, you’ll know for certain they have given up on the fantasy of the tariff inflation. Stay tuned.

Robert Romano is the Executive Director of Americans for Limited Government Foundation. 

To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2025/07/white-house-report-import-prices-dropped-from-march-through-may-0-58-percent-as-august-tariff-deadline-approaches/