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Edited by: Brady Africk and Lexi Baker

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine net migration estimates, Americans’ preferred energy policy, and the impact of personal relationships on life satisfaction.

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1. Immigration Expectations

Topline: Net migration for 2025 could land between −525,000 and 115,000, a new report from AEI and the Brookings Institution finds. As AEI’s Stan Veuger and his coauthors predict in the report, President Donald Trump’s immigration policies mean net migration is most likely to fall at zero or below in 2025.

The Next Four: Anticipating the heightened immigration enforcement to continue, the authors estimate 2026 numbers will range from −735,000 to 507,000. The figures are more likely to rebound in 2027 and 2028 as backlash and economic realities set in, eventually returning to typical numbers in 2029.

Labor Market Growth: Using estimates adjusted to reflect the civilian noninstitutionalized population over the age of 16, Veuger and his coauthors offer insight into how the labor market will change as immigration falls. Employment growth in 2025 is estimated at 60,000 to 90,000, significantly lower than 2024 estimates of 140,000 to 180,000.

“It is important to note that the predicted rebound of immigration in 2029–34 is not inevitable. For example, even if the policy environment normalizes, it is possible that the US will have lost its global competitive edge in technology and higher education.” —Stan Veuger, Wendy Edelberg, and Tara Watson

2. Energy Preferences

Topline: Over three-fourths of Americans say that energy cost and availability are the two most important factors when deciding between energy sources. As AEI’s Roger Pielke Jr. argues, politicians and experts should put more weight behind these preferences when approaching energy policy.

The Iron Law: Coined by Pielke, the “Iron Law” refers to the favoritism of economic growth over emission reductions in climate policy. Of survey respondents, 37 percent say that the cost of energy is their highest priority in deciding between energy options.

All of the Above: When asked whether they favored a rapid green transition, stopping the push to replace fossil fuels, or all of the above, 55 percent of respondents said they favored an all-of-the-above approach to energy policy.

Climate Cheerleading: Energy policy debates have become increasingly polarized as politicians and experts take stark sides over fossil fuels, solar and wind, and nuclear power. Pielke asserts that listening to Americans’ preferences for the "Iron Law" and an all-of-the-above approach would be more effective in the debate over energy.

“It turns out that most Americans are pragmatic centrists when it comes to energy policy—lower costs, security of supply, and a balanced portfolio of energy systems has strong, bipartisan support.” —Roger Pielke Jr.

3. Life Satisfaction

Topline: Of married Americans, 54 percent say that they are very or completely satisfied with their personal lives, in contrast with only 23 percent of single Americans who claim the same. In his new report on the state of American culture, AEI’s Daniel A. Cox offers insight into the correlation between strong personal relationships and greater life satisfaction.

Friendship: While marriage is connected with higher life satisfaction, the number of close friends also plays an important role. More than half (56 percent) of Americans with at least six close friends report feeling very or completely satisfied. When combined with marriage, more than two-thirds report the same levels of satisfaction.

The Bigger Picture: The strength of American social networks is in decline, according to data collected by Cox, especially as the amount of time spent in social spaces falls. In a time of cultural upheaval, relationships can offer a path to achieving greater personal satisfaction.

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