1. Castro becomes 10th candidate to qualify for next Democratic debates
2. Early voting begins in two North Carolina special elections
3. Three Idaho school board members face recall election August 27

Castro becomes 10th candidate to qualify for next Democratic debates

Julián Castro tweeted Tuesday that he had achieved the polling requirement—2% support or more in four national or early state polls conducted by certain specific organizations or institutions—to qualify for the third and fourth Democratic presidential debates. 

Castro had announced previously that he had reached the fundraising threshold by receiving donations from at least 130,000 unique donors with a minimum of 400 unique donors in each of at least 20 states. He becomes the 10th candidate to qualify under these criteria.

Unlike the first two debates, candidates must reach both a fundraising and polling threshold to qualify. In addition to Castro, the following nine candidates have reached both thresholds: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Andrew Yang.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) is using the same qualifying criteria for the third set of debates—which will take place September 12-13 in Houston—and the fourth debates scheduled for October at a location to be announced. The DNC has also said that a maximum of 10 candidates will appear on stage during any debate, so if an additional candidate qualifies, both upcoming debates will be held over two nights.

Candidates have until August 28 to meet both thresholds. Four candidates—Jay Inslee, Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer, and Marianne Williamson—have achieved the fundraising criteria. In order to meet the polling threshold, Steyer needs to receive 2% support or more in one additional qualifying poll and Gabbard needs two. Inslee and Williamson have not yet achieved 2% support in any qualifying polls. 

One week from today—on August 29 at 11 a.m. Central Time—we’ll be conducting our quarterly presidential briefing webinar. I’ll be joined by Emily Aubert, one of the primary authors of our daily and weekly Presidential News Briefing newsletters, to discuss the next debates and what the candidates from both parties are doing as we head into the final four months of 2019. It’s going to be an informative session that is also free—we hope you’ll join us. Click the link below to register.

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Early voting begins in two North Carolina special elections 

Early voting began August 21 for two congressional special elections in North Carolina taking place September 10. ICYMI, here’s a quick summary of those two races.

North Carolina’s 9th

Dan Bishop (R), Dan McCready (D), Jeff Scott (L), and Allen Smith (G) are running in this special election after the state board of elections did not certify the results from the 2018 election following an investigation into allegations of absentee ballot fraud.

Bishop says his record includes working for voter ID requirements, opposing abortion, and reducing state income taxes. McCready says he'd seek bipartisan legislation on healthcare, education, and taxes in the House. McCready—who was also his party’s nominee in 2018—was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Bishop won the Republican primary against nine other candidates.

The race has seen satellite spending from a number of groups, including the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), Club for Growth, Congressional Leadership Fund, Environmental Defense Fund, and House Majority Forward. The NRCC has released three ads opposing McCready and the group had reserved $2.6 million in airtime as of July 31. The DCCC spent $626,000 on an ad opposing Bishop and announced it was spending more than $2 million on non-advertising efforts, such as increasing voter turnout in the district.

The 2018 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+8, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Republican than the national average.

North Carolina’s 3rd

Greg Murphy (R), Allen Thomas (D), Tim Harris (L), and Greg Holt (Constitution Party) are running in the special election for this seat that was vacated by Walter Jones (R), who died in February.

Murphy finished first among 17 candidates in the April 30 Republican primary and defeated Joan Perry in a primary runoff July 9. He has campaigned on his support of President Donald Trump (R) and has described himself as a consistent conservative, highlighting his work as a doctor and state legislator. Thomas won the six-candidate Democratic primary and has emphasized economic development, small-town revitalization, and improving access to healthcare.

The Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+12, meaning that this district's results were 12 percentage points more Republican than the national average in the previous two presidential elections.

In the only other congressional special election held this year, State Rep. Fred Keller (R) defeated college professor Marc Friedenberg (D) on May 21 in Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District for the seat vacated by retiring Rep. Tom Marino (R). From 2013 to 2018, 40 congressional special elections were held in 26 states—13 for seats vacated by Democrats and 27 for seats vacated by Republicans. Four seats changed party control as a result of those elections.

Click here to learn more about the special election in North Carolina's 9th District→

Click here to learn more about the special election in North Carolina's 3rd District→

Three Idaho school board members face recall election August 27

We cover thousands of elections every year at Ballotpedia. Once in a while, we like to highlight one of those local races. This week, the mayor pro tem of Estes Park, Colorado, was recalled by a vote of 60-40%—marking the 20th official recalled nationwide so far in 2019. Another recall election takes place next week that could remove three school board members from their positions on the Middleton School District board of trustees in Idaho. Middleton is a city of about 5,500 people located 25 miles west of Boise. 

The recall effort against two board members—Tim Winkle and Alicia McConkie—began after they voted to accept the superintendent's personnel recommendations which did not renew the contract of the high school’s principal in May. Another board member was also targeted for recall at that time, but his petition was rejected by the county because he had not served in office long enough to be recalled. 

A separate recall petition against Marianne Blackwell said she “set an unprofessional and unacceptable precedent for school board trustees” and violated the board's code of ethics. Blackwell was the only board member to vote against the personnel recommendations. The school board’s fifth member resigned in April due to personal reasons.

Winkle said that because the decision to not renew the principal’s contract was a personnel matter, the board was limited in what they could share with the public. McConkie said she has served the best she could for the last two years and felt she was being targeted for recall over a single decision. Blackwell did not respond to the recall effort against her.

In order for Middleton School District board members to be removed from office, a majority of voters must vote in favor in the recall election. Additionally, the number of voters who cast ballots in favor of the recall must also be higher than the total number of people who voted for the officeholders when they were last up for election.

In 2018, Ballotpedia covered a total of 206 recall efforts against 299 elected officials. Of the 123 officials whose recalls made it to the ballot, 77 were recalled for a rate of 62.6%. That was higher than the 56.9%rate and 56.3% rate for 2017 and 2016 recalls, respectively.

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