[link removed]
CRANK Call is a monthly review of developments involving cooperation, and at times contention, among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (the CRANKs ([link removed]) ).


** June Highlights
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** Russia and China condemn Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran but offer limited support
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When Israel launched military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and other targets on June 13, both China and Russia publicly condemned the action and convened an emergency session ([link removed]) of the United Nations Security Council later that day. However, neither country appears willing to provide significant material support. Iranian officials have expressed disappointment with the limited backing received from both Russia ([link removed]) and China ([link removed]) .

Russia had previously offered to mediate ([link removed]) negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran in early June, stating it would be willing to take and safeguard Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile ([link removed]) if it would help facilitate an agreement with Washington. However, the strategic cooperation agreement ([link removed]) ratified earlier this year between Russia and Iran included no mutual defense commitments—unlike Russia’s more robust agreement with North Korea.

Russia and Israel have maintained a relatively amicable ([link removed]) relationship in recent years despite Moscow’s ties to Tehran, a balance ([link removed]) Russia is unlikely to upset. Russia has also become less dependent on Iranian-supplied attack drones, having ramped up domestic production of drones based on the Shahed-136 design ([link removed]) , and it is now supporting drone production in North Korea as well. Nonetheless, damage to Iranian industrial facilities could hinder ([link removed]) missile production, including systems exported to Russia. Strategically, Russia may also benefit ([link removed]) from the diversion of Western attention to the Middle
East, away from its ongoing war in Ukraine, where it is gradually making territorial advances.

China, meanwhile, has played a critical role in sustaining Iran’s economy, acting as the only major buyer ([link removed]) of Iranian crude oil and condensates, and establishing a Renminbi-based payment system to circumvent U.S. sanctions. There has been no acknowledged Chinese material support for Iran’s defense during the 12 days of Israeli and U.S. strikes. However, attention has turned to a series of unexplained cargo flights ([link removed]) from China to Iran that listed false destinations ([link removed]) in public flight records. More notably, recent reports suggest that China delivered HHQ-9B long-range air defense missiles ([link removed]) to Iran
following the end of hostilities. If confirmed, some analysts may interpret this as a quid pro quo: Chinese arms in exchange for Iranian oil.


** Chinese spies target Russian warfighting knowledge, as North Korea targets Chinese dronemakers
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Following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there has been a surge in Chinese hacking ([link removed]) activity targeting Russian government and corporate systems containing military secrets, cybersecurity analysts told the New York Times. This uptick comes despite China’s cooperation with Russia in supporting its war effort and its public commitment to a “no limits” partnership with Moscow. While China has a much larger economy than Russia and manufactures advanced weapons systems, its military lacks recent combat experience. Chinese personnel ([link removed]) have met with Russian counterparts near the front lines in Ukraine to study battlefield lessons, and Russia has promised to offer training seminars ([link removed]) .

However, the Chinese military apparently seeks more detailed information than Russia is willing to share—particularly regarding the performance of American and European weapons systems in Ukraine. A recently leaked Russian counterintelligence report ([link removed]) outlines what Russia knows about the broad scope of Chinese cyber-espionage efforts to obtain this information. China, for its part, has also been a target of cyberespionage. It recently arrested ([link removed]) a North Korean IT specialist, accusing him of illicitly acquiring drone technologies. The fact that this incident was publicly reported in Chinese media, rather than handled discreetly, suggests that Beijing views the matter as serious—especially amid an already strained bilateral relationship with North Korea.


** Russian advisor touts Power of Siberia project as alternative to reliance on Persian Gulf
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June saw an uptick in press coverage of the stalled Russian-Chinese negotiations over the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project, which has received renewed interest ([link removed]) amid recent military clashes between Iran, Israel, and the United States. These tensions have highlighted the potential for instability in the Persian Gulf to disrupt hydrocarbon supplies. Kirill Babayev, head of the China and Contemporary Asia Institute in Moscow, stated that renewed Gulf tensions ([link removed]) are likely to revive negotiations with China and predicted that a deal will be finalized before the end of the year. Sources close to Chinese leadership also confirmed ([link removed]) to the Wall Street Journal that Beijing’s
interest in securing additional Russian gas has increased, given the potential threats to infrastructure in Qatar—the primary exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Gulf—which was targeted in Iran’s June 23 token retaliation for U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities two days earlier. Russia has thus far been unwilling to offer prices low enough to close a deal with China, which remains wary of over-concentrating its energy imports from any single supplier.


** North Korea rises relative to Iran as partner for Russia
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At a time when Iran’s capabilities have been diminished, North Korea has steadily increased in importance as a security partner for Russia. A recent agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang will see up to 25,000 North Korean workers ([link removed]) deployed to the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Tatarstan, where they will help produce Shahed-136 drones—originally of Iranian design—at a new Russian drone factory. This effort is reportedly aimed at increasing drone production ([link removed]) from 2,000 to 5,000 units per month, compensating for what is expected to be a halt or reduction ([link removed]) in Iranian drone deliveries. According to South Korean intelligence reports, North Korea is also preparing to send additional troops
([link removed]) to Russia in the near future. In addition to these forces, the North Korean military ([link removed]) has agreed to dispatch 6,000 support personnel ([link removed]) to assist with de-mining operations and the reconstruction ([link removed]) of military facilities in the Kursk region. In return, Russia is reportedly providing technical assistance ([link removed]) to North Korea in areas including air defense, air-to-air missiles, and ballistic missile development, including submarine-launched missiles.


** Links
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Russia has eclipsed Ukraine’s previous lead in drone technology with assistance from China. (Politico.eu ([link removed]) )

Russian Security Council head Sergei Shoigu visited Pyongyang for talks with leader Kim Jong Un, during which Kim pledged “unconditional support” for Russia in its war with Ukraine. (Moscow Times ([link removed]) , AP ([link removed]) )

President Vladimir Putin warned President Donald Trump that Russia will retaliate against Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian bomber bases. (BBC ([link removed]) )

Russia and North Korea have agreed to resume direct passenger rail service between Moscow and Pyongyang—at over 10,000 kilometers, the longest passenger rail route in the world. (Reuters ([link removed]) )

Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers held phone consultations following the onset of Israeli strikes. (Global Times ([link removed]) , China Ministry of Foreign Affairs ([link removed]) )

Iran has placed orders for additional ballistic missile fuel and components. (Wall Street Journal ([link removed]) )

Transport planes have flown from China to Iran while listing false destinations in public flight data. (The Telegraph ([link removed]) )

North Korea has denounced the Israeli strikes on Iran. (North Korea Ministry of Foreign Affairs ([link removed]) , Reuters ([link removed]) )

North Korean analysts have assessed the damage to Iranian underground facilities they helped design. (Newsweek ([link removed]) )


** Recent Analysis
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What’s at Stake for China in the Iran War? ([link removed]) (Adam Gallagher, U.S. Institute of Peace)

The Iran-China-Russia Axis Crumbles When It Matters ([link removed]) (Leon Aron, The Atlantic)


** CRANK Perspectives
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China Condemns U.S. Attacks on Three Nuclear Sites in Iran ([link removed]) (Global Times)


** CRANK Call
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Editor-in-Chief, Paul Saunders
Editor, Greg Priddy ([email protected])

Image:Shutterstock

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