Unsanitized: The COVID-19 Report for June 22, 2020

Why deaths may not spike despite rising coronavirus cases.
Plus, why rich people aren't spending

 

Governors like Florida's Ron DeSantis are seeing a spike in new cases,
but not yet a spike in coronavirus deaths. (Wilfredo Lee/AP Photo)

First Response

The weekend produced the same out-of-control case counts

in the South and Southwest. The case increases cannot be explained by
increased testing alone; on Friday one-quarter of Arizona tests
were found
positive, up from around 8 percent on Memorial Day, when the rise began.
Florida had a record single-day case count

on Friday, and about a quarter of Alabama's total cases

have come in the last week. Nationwide, on Saturday the U.S. registered
the highest case numbers since May 1
.

Take a look at the death counts
, however, which have
definitively slowed. Sunday we saw only 297 deaths, very low even when
accounting for a slow reporting day. The seven-day rolling average is
under 600
and headed down

in a fairly linear fashion.

All the caveats about how positive tests are incomplete, how deaths are
probably incomplete, etc., apply. But the trends are clear enough: case
counts are rising, rapidly in some spots, and deaths are dropping.
Deaths aren't even rising all that much in states where cases are
flying.

Now, this is perfectly consistent. Deaths are a lagging indicator: you
catch the coronavirus, you get sick, for some that sickness
progressively worsens, and then you die. But cases started to rise in
these states as much as four weeks ago. The lag should have caught up to
the extent that we'd at least see some rise in deaths. Yet we have
not. And though I'm uncomfortable making any kind of prediction when
it comes to this virus, falling deaths could or even should continue
even as cases go up. Here's why.

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There is some indication that positive tests are clustering around
younger people
.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said the median age for new cases was 37,
and in Texas, Greg Abbott said a majority of new cases were from people
under 30. Trust but verify, but it's somewhat logical to believe that
younger people are more restless and careless with social distancing
measures.

We know that the COVID-19 mortality rate rises so much for older people
and those who are immunocompromised. People at most risk certainly
recognize those risks more than they did in, say, March, and are more
likely to isolate and act accordingly. Even a small shift to younger
carriers will translate into a lower overall mortality rate.

While I don't have much trust in Southern governors to respond to
rising cases by mandating mask use or locking down parts of their
states, they do have the ability to learn from the most egregious
mistakes. Andrew Cuomo put sick people who tested positive back in
nursing homes. I doubt we will see that replicated.

And we know a lot more about this disease from a medical standpoint than
we did in March. There are more treatments that seem to work.
Dexamethasone appears to reduce death

in seriously ill patients. An osteoporosis drug is showing some promise
.
We know that intubation is not necessary in all patients

with low oxygen levels. Doctors have been wrestling with this thing for
three months and they've found a couple things that work, not well,
but let's say better. That could be pushing down mortality rates
slightly as well.

None of this is to say that coronavirus is a benign disease. There's
clear evidence that its symptoms can linger in people

for months, that it can cause severe lung scarring
,
and that even young people can die

from it. But we're talking about rates of death here. Tom Frieden,
former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
agrees that those death rates are likely to be lower
.

The parallel threat of rising cases has always been that the hospital
system gets overwhelmed. Hospitalizations are rising in several states,
and without lockdowns, it's hard to see how the spread will be
diminished enough to prevent that from spiraling. DeSantis says he has
enough beds
,
but exponential increases could change that calculation.Experts abroad
should be alarmed

at the blitheness of U.S. officials as the virus spreads. We're kind
of witnessing a version of the herd immunity approach that other
countries considered and then rapidly aborted. If the virus mutates into
something deadlier, all bets are off. But for now, I'd expect deaths
to plateau rather than spike.

Support Independent, Fact-Checked Journalism

I Have A Book

As I've mentioned, my new book, Monopolized: Life in the Age of
Corporate Power
, comes
out next month. I was happy to go on Hill.TV's Rising
with Krystal Ball and
Saagar Enjeti to have my first interview about the book.

Consider it a sneak preview. Here's the interview
.

You can also read reviews from Kirkus
,
BookPage
,
and Publishers Weekly
. And you can
pre-order here
.  Speaking
of monopoly, I point out today

at the main site that this growing bipartisan movement to take away Big
Tech's legal immunity for what they publish is tempered by the fact
that Big Tech managed to get the same immunity installed into the update
to NAFTA, which will make it very hard to get rid of it.

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**Where the Money's At**

The New York Times published something last week that I think is getting
misinterpreted. It's based on a study

from Raj Chetty and others, noting that the largest declines in spending
during the pandemic come from upper-income earners, which is harming the
poorer people who rely on that spending. In isolation it seemed like a
reinforcement of trickle-down economics. But nowhere in the piece does
it mention that the pandemic has created this reality.

The types of events most likely to be closed due to social distancing
are leisure activities frequented disproportionately by wealthier
people: sporting events, concerts, clubs, large gatherings. If the bulk
of spending is going to necessities, then of course wealthier people
aren't spending as much. That's a coronavirus effect, not a
recession effect. Even the fact that richer people, generally, can work
from home impacts this, because the restaurants and retail that caters
to commuters and business people have taken a huge hit. And this lower
spending translates into cash-hoarding; the richest people in America
have gotten a lot richer

in 2020.

On the flip side, a Times piece today

notes that federal aid has stalled any rise in poverty, because the
simple fact of giving people money makes them less poor. This is not
particularly revelatory, but it does highlight the temporary nature of
that relief. The one-time checks are gone and boosted unemployment ends
in five weeks. And talks on any extension have been moved to the end of
July
,
right when the unemployment boost runs out. The CARES Act's temporary
nature has created a cliff for the poor, and a money cannon for the
wealthy
that has protected them from any pain.Anyone who says we should pause on
extending this aid
is a moral
monster. But the aid should have been tied to economic conditions from
the start. Congress shouldn't turn the fate of the poor into a
hostage-taking situation.

Donations Are Tax Deductible

Days Without a Bailout Oversight Chair

87
.

We Can't Do This Without You

Today I Learned

* American Airlines going back to the bond markets for another $3.5
billion

for unspecified "general corporate purposes." (CNBC)

* The Hawaii success story

owes much to contact tracing. (Politico)

* Contact tracing is not going so well

in New York City. (New York Times)

* Numerous transfers of coronavirus patients between off-book
immigration prisons
.
(The Intercept)

* We need to discuss wholesale changes to our food production system

after this is over. (Lawyers Guns and Money)

* Golf

and tennis pros

tested positive in recent days. I expect sports to be the last thing to
come back. (Hartford Courant; Washington Post)

* The summer without rodeos
. (New
York Times)

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