John,

Britain’s post-war era of two-party stability appears to be coming to an end. For most of the UK’s modern history, power has swung between Labour and the Conservatives. But record levels of distrust and disillusionment are pushing that system to the edge. For better or worse, change is coming.

Right now, it looks like that change may come waving the light-blue banner of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Reform has become the lightning rod for Britain’s political anger, gaining momentum as the Conservatives and Labour bleed support. It’s part of a global trend: far-right parties cannibalising the old centre-right across Europe, and Donald Trump’s hostile takeover of the GOP in the United States.

Despite Reform UK’s significant gains in the May local elections, many still dismiss the idea of Farage ever becoming Prime Minister.

They shouldn’t. Nothing is inevitable – but I’m going to show you why it’s a real possibility.

1. Voter Intention Polls

The clearest place to begin is with the polling. In recent months, a string of shocking voter intention surveys has suggested that Reform UK would be Britain’s largest political party if there was an immediate election.

Sure, some polls – like a recent Ipsos one putting Reform at 34%, nine points ahead of Labour – might seem like outliers. And they should be treated cautiously.

That’s why I’ve used aggregated polling data from the UK Election Data Vault, which averages all public voter intention surveys with weights based on accuracy and reliability. The chart below shows the trend from February to June 2025.

As of June, Reform UK averages just over 30%, comfortably ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives. In a fragmented field like this one, that could plausibly be enough to win under FPTP.

Also worth noting: the light-blue line seems to be stabilising around that 30% mark. Reform is unlikely to ever to win a true majority of votes, but they’re also not a flash in the pan. Rather than an outlier, Reform is looking like a serious contender in a starkly divided political field.

2. Access To The FPTP “Springboard”

Recent data gives us an indication of what these poll numbers mean. YouGov recently released their first MRP of a new Parliament based on constituency level polling. Basically, they’ve drawn a picture of what an electoral map would look like today.

The results are staggering. Their data showed support for Reform UK at 26%. Because of the mind-boggling distortion powers of First-Past-The-Post, this would give the party 271 seats in Parliament making them by far the largest party.

It points to a hung Parliament. But given that the polling averages we looked at above have Reform four points higher at 30%, the result could likely be even more insanely disproportionate than the graph you see below.

Factor in as well that the Tories are increasingly desperate, and with Reform-friendly figures like Bobby Jenrick waiting in the wings, coalition scenarios can’t be ruled out.

The chart below illustrates how disproportionate the projections are between parties’ share of the vote and how many seats they’re projected to win under FPTP.

3. Media Domination

Only five TikTok videos posted by an MP have received over a million likes. All five were posted by Nigel Farage.

Farage also averages nearly 14x more engagement per post than other UK politicians on the platform. He has more followers on TikTok than every other MP combined.

It’s a similar story elsewhere: Farage has more followers than the Prime Minister on X. During the 2024 general election, Reform UK’s Facebook content – mostly featuring Farage – generated six times more reactions and shares than Labour or the Conservatives.

Reform’s content is slick, direct, and sensationalist, a perfect match for the platforms driving today’s political attention economy. And platforms like Elon Musk’s X, which have a track record of boosting far-right content, are doing them favours algorithmically too.

That level of media domination means Farage can set the agenda on policy more often than either Labour or the Conservatives - and build the coalition of support he’d need to form a government.

4. A Broken Social Contract

But perhaps the single most significant indicator hinting at a Farage victory is that Keir Starmer has so far failed to resolve the crisis of confidence which the far-right feeds on.

As we’ve recently discussed, the latest British Social Attitudes survey from 2025 indicates that just 12% of Britons trust politicians to act in the national interest. A new all time low. For Keir Starmer’s part,  60% of the country now say they find the Prime Minister ‘untrustworthy.’

It’s no coincidence that these dire figures indicating low trust in politics coincide with Farage’s rise. He’s feeding off a broken social contract, benefitting from a broken media environment, and taking advantage of a deeply unfair First-Past-The-Post political system.

The decline in our two-party political system I brought up at the beginning of this newsletter may be non-negotiable. As the economist Herbert Stein once said: “anything that cannot go on forever eventually stops.”

But there’s no reason that Nigel Farage should capture the next phase of our politics. We’ve seen what his brand of politics brings: chaos, division, and worse material outcomes for everyone who isn’t a billionaire.

It’s up to us to build a system that not only forces Farage to fight fair, but addresses the deep feelings of disillusionment and discontent that are pushing our current political system to the brink.

Where We Go From Here

We have a choice. Let Nigel Farage exploit the weaknesses in our democracy to dictate the terms of this new political era – or build something better that forces him to fight fair. That’s why Open Britain is fighting to turn this tide:

• We campaign to replace First Past the Post with a fair voting system where a party with a minority support isn’t handed absolute power.

  
  

• We call out authoritarian populists, especially Farage, when they are making unrealistic and disingenuous promises

  
  

• We challenge disinformation and expose manipulative political narratives.

  
  

• We push for transparency, ending the influence of dark money in our elections.

  
  

• We equip ordinary people with the tools to act, helping them understand and use their democratic rights.

If that sounds like a mission worth backing, we need your help. A regular monthly donation makes our work stronger, more consistent, and more effective.

This fight won’t be won overnight, but it can be won with your support.

Best wishes,

Matt Gallagher

Communications Officer

Open Britain