The clearest place to begin is with the polling. In recent months, a string of shocking voter intention surveys has suggested that Reform UK would be Britain’s largest political party if there was an immediate election.
Sure, some polls – like a recent Ipsos one putting Reform at 34%, nine points ahead of Labour – might seem like outliers. And they should be treated cautiously.
That’s why I’ve used aggregated polling data from the UK Election Data Vault, which averages all public voter intention surveys with weights based on accuracy and reliability. The chart below shows the trend from February to June 2025.
As of June, Reform UK averages just over 30%, comfortably ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives. In a fragmented field like this one, that could plausibly be enough to win under FPTP.
Also worth noting: the light-blue line seems to be stabilising around that 30% mark. Reform is unlikely to ever to win a true majority of votes, but they’re also not a flash in the pan. Rather than an outlier, Reform is looking like a serious contender in a starkly divided political field.