Dear MoveOn member,
It's less than 20 weeks to Election Day, and the worst possible thing is
happening right now: Democrats are starting to think they have the
election in the bag.
Yes, Donald Trump's national poll numbers are slumping across the board
right now. Trump's devastating bungling of the coronavirus pandemic, the
depth of the economic crisis he exacerbated, and his violently racist
response to the Black Lives Matter protests have been epic disasters.
But seriously. Didn't we learn ANYTHING from 2016?
As bad as Trump's numbers are now, his base still loves him, and he still
has a massive advantage in the Electoral College.^1 He has way more money
than the Biden campaign.^2 His campaign is light-years ahead of Democrats
in harvesting voter data and targeting voters on social media—and Trump's
campaign is tapping into the destructive expertise of disinformation
tactics online.^3,4 And as the primaries have unfolded during the
pandemic, we've seen how far Republicans will go to suppress the
vote—especially of voters of color—in key states like Wisconsin, Florida,
and Georgia.^5
On top of all of that, the recent swing in the polls toward Joe Biden can
swing right back to Trump. It's only June.
MoveOn is developing a strategy based on an innovative approach called
"Vote Tripling," and, so far, testing data shows it could be five times
more effective than traditional strategies like phone calls and
canvassing. On average, MoveOn's monthly donors chip in about $10 a
month. Will you chip in $10 a month to
help us get this game-changing program off the ground and keep it running
in 10 of the most important swing states to defeat Trump in November?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Our innovative new "Vote Tripling" strategy is based on data showing that
the best way to increase voter turnout is through social influence and
accountability. You see, if you make sure that your close friends and
family are going to vote, and they know that YOU are going to vote, then
they're far less likely to blow it off.^6
Whether you voted or not is public information—not which candidates you
voted for but whether you cast a ballot or not. But most people don't
realize that. They figure that their vote won't matter, and no one will
know whether they voted anyway, so who cares?
That's the attitude that put Trump in the White House in the first place.
We've tested various forms of voter accountability and social influence in
the past, and this year we are recruiting hundreds of thousands of MoveOn
members in battleground states to sign "Vote Tripling Pledges," which are
commitments to reach out to three friends or family members, help them
create plans to vote, and then make sure they actually cast ballots this
fall.
Tests have found that this kind of social influence increased voter
turnout by more than 10% in voters under 30. That's five times more
effective than phone banking and canvassing.^7 Can you chip in
$10 a month to help MoveOn run this program in every one of
the top 10 battleground states? We need a consistent flow of resources to
run the program from now through Election Day. (The average gift from a MoveOn monthly donor is about $10
a month, but whatever you can afford will go a long
way.)
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Here's a reality check for people who think Trump will be easy to beat in
November. Only two incumbent presidents have been defeated for re-election
since World War II: Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush.
Trump's approval ratings are 5 points better than Bush's and 7 points
better than Carter's were at the same point in their re-election
campaigns.^8
And that's after what has to be the worst run of press coverage any
president has had in recent memory. Imagine what will happen when the
press coverage starts to turn. And you know it will. The media loves to
tear down front-runners, and Biden will make mistakes that the press will
pounce on.
The people who are still with Trump now will never leave him, and that
means he'll always have a chance of being re-elected. Yes, every poll
shows Biden ahead right now. But every poll showed Hillary Clinton ahead
of Trump four years ago. And then Trump's disgusting "Access Hollywood"
revelation happened. And Trump still won.
We cannot take this election for granted. If we do, we will lose. MoveOn's
got a great plan to beat Trump, but we need your help to fund it.
On average, MoveOn's monthly donors chip in about $10 a
month. Given the state of our economy, not everyone is in a
position to contribute, but if you can, will you chip in $10
a month to help launch and sustain our data-driven, innovative Vote
Tripling program from now through Election Day?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in monthly.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
Thanks for all you do.
–Kate, Kenia, Allison, Manny, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. "Why Biden Needs to Win Big," New York, June 12, 2020
[link removed]
2. "Trump Resumes Fundraising to Build Cash Lead Against Biden," The New
York Times, June 11, 2020
[link removed]
3. "Biden's campaign rushes to blunt Trump's digital advantage," CNN, May
9, 2020
[link removed]
4. "The Billion-Dollar Disinformation Campaign to Reelect the President,"
The Atlantic, February 10, 2020
[link removed]
5. "Coronavirus chaos in Georgia, Wisconsin a 'warning sign' for
Democrats," Politico, June 11, 2020
[link removed]
6. "Social Influence & Voter Turnout," VoteTripling.org, May 2019
[link removed]
7. "Wired to mobilize: The effect of social networking messages on voter
turnout," The Social Science Journal, June 2015
[link removed]
8. "How popular/unpopular is Donald Trump?" FiveThirtyEight, accessed June
19, 2020
[link removed]
Want to support our work? The MoveOn community will work every moment, day
by day and year by year, to resist Trump's agenda, contain the damage,
defeat hate with love, and begin the process of swinging the nation's
pendulum back toward sanity, decency, and the kind of future that we must
never give up on. And to do it we need your ongoing support, now more than
ever. Will you stand with us?
[ [link removed] ]Yes, I'll chip in $5 a month.
[ [link removed] ]No, I'm sorry, I can't make a monthly donation.
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