|
 |
The question is pretty simple… So, does it matter?
Newsom’s Trump Bump Exposes California’s Backwards Priorities
New UCI Poll Released Today Shows Governor’s Immigration Fight Boosts Ratings While State Ignores Fundamental Problems
|
| |||||||||||||||
 |
🕒 3 1/2-minute read
The Trump Effect: Short-Term Politics, Long-Term Problems
The latest UCI-OC Poll, released today, reveals a troubling truth about California politics: voters reward theatrical confrontation over actual governance. Governor Gavin Newsom’s favorability ratings surged to 56% following his immigration standoff with President Trump, a dramatic reversal from the 59% disapproval he faced just weeks earlier. Meanwhile, by a 2:1 margin, Californians believe their state is on the wrong track, suggesting a disconnect between political theater and policy results.
Jon Gould, dean of UCI’s School of Social Ecology, confirms, “There is no mistaking that Newsom’s battle with Trump has been good for his standing in the state, certainly among Democrats and also with independents.” This mirrors a familiar pattern in California politics: confronting conservative bogeymen brings more political capital than solving chronic failures.
The Approval Paradox: Popular Governor, Failing State
The contradiction is apparent. Republicans believe the state is on the wrong track by a 4:1 margin, independents by nearly 3:1, and even Democrats are evenly split. Yet Newsom’s Trump-fighting has improved his standing, revealing how messaging can override performance.
Consider the fundamentals: California struggles with a massive deficit, rising crime, persistent homelessness, and regulatory burdens that strangle small businesses. Among racial groups, only African Americans narrowly believe the state is headed in the right direction. Among age groups, only Californians over 80 are optimistic. These figures point to dissatisfaction that crosses partisan lines.
Walk through downtown San Francisco or Los Angeles, and you see it. Businesses struggle with theft and vandalism. Parents worry about safety. Homeless individuals suffer without adequate mental health or addiction care. These are not statistics—they are human tragedies demanding real solutions.
Partisan Priorities Reveal Deeper Divisions
The poll highlights California’s fractures. Republicans prioritize law enforcement and regulation relief; Democrats focus on housing, healthcare, and education. These reflect opposing visions—one favoring freedom and safety, the other expanded services and oversight.
But both sides ignore the fiscal math. California cannot expand every program while maintaining the nation’s highest taxes and most complex rules. Hard choices are overdue.
Behind these numbers are families making real sacrifices. Teachers leave because they cannot afford to live nearby. Officers retire early feeling unsupported. Entrepreneurs move out because launching a business here is too costly.
The Presidential Ambition Tax
Newsom’s Trump-centric strategy serves national ambitions more than state needs. The poll suggests voters see this but reward him anyway. As Gould notes, “Newsom has an upside, which may help him if he chooses to run for president,” confirming the governor’s gaze is set on Washington.
That comes at a cost. Every hour spent on lawsuits and interviews is time not spent solving California’s real problems. As the issues pile up, so do the consequences.
Californians need a governor focused on their lives—not on the White House.
The Harris Factor: Another Distraction Looms
The poll reveals another potential detour. Kamala Harris leads the hypothetical gubernatorial field with 24%. In a head-to-head, she beats a generic Republican 41% to 29%. California may again see its governorship used as a launchpad.
This is the deeper concern. Voters sense that too many leaders view the state as a résumé line, not a responsibility. Californians deserve better.
The Real Test Ahead
“We’re in a period of disappointment and distrust,” Gould says. “No one seems happy with anything.” That brings both risk and opportunity. Voters want action, not slogans. The question is whether leaders will rise to meet that demand.
Newsom’s Trump bump shows how shallow support can be. When the standoff ends, will approval survive contact with reality? The poll suggests voters know the difference between theater and leadership—they just need to demand the latter.
California has the talent and resources to fix its problems. What it needs is leadership committed to putting families first—not climbing the next political ladder.
Poll Methodology
The UCI-OC Poll is based on two statewide online surveys conducted with Truedot from May 27 to June 4, 2025, with samples of 2,143 and 2,000 California adults. A third survey of 509 adults was conducted June 24–26 to assess the favorability of Donald Trump and Gavin Newsom after their Los Angeles standoff. All surveys used non-probability online panels administered by Dynata and were weighted to match California Census demographics.
So, Does It Matter? - with Jon Fleischman is free today. But if you enjoyed this post, you can tell Jon that his writing is valuable by pledging a future subscription. You won't be charged unless he enables payments.
| ||||||||||
