Big Beautiful HypocrisyYoung people understand that the Republican Congressional bill borrows against our future. That creates an opportunity for Democrats.
Congress is poised to pass Trump’s signature legislation—the One Big Beautiful Bill Act—at some point soon.¹ I won’t get into the nuance, because these sorts of budget bills are endlessly complex.² But here’s what I will say:
Context on the “Big Beautiful Bill”Before I get into anything related to how much it costs: the policies themselves are really bad. A few examples:
For a bill that’s set to extend tax cuts for many Americans, it’s remarkable how unpopular it is: 54% of Americans believe it’ll have a “mostly negative” impact on the country, and only 30% say its impact will be “mostly positive.”⁴ Context on how much our debt costs usI’m not an economist, and I don’t have any strong opinion on what the “right” levels of debt are for the country—lots of much smarter, much better educated people than I disagree on that question. But as a statement of fact: the more the national debt grows, the more taxpayers have to spend on interest payments. And we’re about to add $3,300,000,000,000 ($3.3 trillion) to our debt, if not more. In 2024—riding a wave of spending and borrowing coming out of the pandemic that hasn’t abated—the American taxpayer spends more to pay down our debt than we do on Medicare.⁵ This bill takes things even further: it’ll increase the federal government’s annual interest payments from $870 billion to $1.6 trillion by 2034. It’s almost impossible to contextualize how large that number is, so to give you some sense:
Those are both less than how much we’ll be paying in interest every year. People in Congress are constantly talking about the debt and the deficit, so it’s important to note that this isn’t normal. For a century, debt levels have never been at 0%—there are real benefits to the government borrowing money—but the more money that we borrow, the more money we have to spend paying off what we borrow. In that sense, it’s not much different than a mortgage. When borrowing is lower during more stable periods, it gives the country more flexibility to spend and borrow during moments of true crisis. It made some sense to borrow money when the world briefly shut down during the COVID-19 pandemic, because that helped keep people fed and housed. But right now, our debt-to-GDP ratio is higher than it was even during World War II, which is really concerning because we’re hardly in a moment of crisis:
What does this mean? When a true crisis comes again—and it will, sooner or later—we’re hamstringing our ability to spend money to curtail a deeper crisis, or to fund a war. Increasing the deficit for me, not for theeComplaining about the other party’s profligate, irresponsible spending is a time-tested Washington tradition. But for a party that (nominally) cares about responsible spending, Republicans are awfully silent when they’re in power. Here’s a side-by-side comparison of what Republicans were saying during debates around Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act vs. what they’re saying now when it comes to spending and/or the federal debt.⁷ This doesn’t get talked about enough: the Congressional Budget Office said that Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act reduced the deficit by $238 billion. Conservative think tanks later questioned this math, but you know what they weren’t saying? That it was increasing our debt by $3.3 trillion. Again, numbers that large are hard to contextualize (or at least they are for me),⁸ and—it’s a nuanced but important distinction—debt and deficit are not the same thing. But: the fact that we are taking on so much debt, and the fact that there’s seemingly no Republican consideration for the long-term costs of what we’re doing, is really bad. They’re not fooling the American public, by the way. In a recent poll, 3× more Americans believe that this will increase the budget deficit than believe it’ll reduce it. Democrats have an opportunity to win back young votersI’m not an especially cynical person, or at least I try not to be. But I’ve been paying into Social Security for as long as I’ve been working, and I’ve long assumed that I’ll never see any benefit.⁹ And I’m not alone in this: 39% of millennials (and 45% of Gen Z) believe that Social Security will have totally dried up by the time that we retire. Nearly half of people under 30 believe that they won’t be able to attain financial security. Anecdotally, I’ve felt—and I’m not alone in having noticed this—that Gen Z is an intensely cynical generation, in stark contrast to my more optimistic millennial peers. So it’s notable that of Trump’s signature ideas and policies, the one that voters under 30 support most is the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE): I’ve written before about how young men moved away from Democrats in the ’24 election. But a dynamic that I haven’t talked enough about: young women did too, albeit not by the same clip.¹⁰ Perhaps their support for a better, more efficient government helps explain part of that trend. DOGE has done extremely little to help Americans, but young people are right to believe that government doesn’t always spend taxpayer money efficiently. The monstrosity of a bill that’s likely to land on Trump’s desk soon creates an opportunity for Democrats to own the issue of government efficiency. Republicans are spending with no regard for the future, and young voters—both men and women—understand that they’re the ones who’ll have to pay for it. People want government to work better for them. But Republicans don’t seem to care. And while this isn’t the only way to win back young voters, demonstrating that Democrats actually care about our future—and that they’re not just borrowing against it—is a start. Feel free to share this post with someone who will find this interesting. If you’re reading this email because someone sent it to you, please consider subscribing. 1 This article went out this morning, but I scheduled it to go out last night. It’s possible that, by the time this gets sent, the House will have already passed the bill. Also, it needs to be said: what an embarrassingly stupid name for a pretty consequential piece of legislation. 2 There are also important differences between debt and deficit that I don’t really get into, because they’re complicated and don’t impact my broader point. With a little help from our friends at ChatGPT, here’s a quick (and oversimplified) explainer of the difference between the two. 3 I generally respect Lisa Murkowski, but this wasn’t her finest moment. She’s telling reporters that her vote was an “agonizing” choice, but a tortured yes vote is still a yes vote. 4 The Republican Party, in their own platform, talks about the need to “improve fiscal sanity” and “expand access to new Affordable Healthcare.” This bill, of course, does the opposite. (Another unimportant note: why are Republicans so damn bad at capitalization?) 5 Not for nothing: a quarter of that money ends up abroad, because a lot of our debt is held by foreign investors. 6 The S&P 500 is at all-time highs despite the threat of tariffs and war in the Middle East and an incredibly unstable U.S. President and increasing isolationism in the world and a million other things. I don’t get it. But this is why I don’t try to time markets. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. 7 8 As always, xkcd has some wonderful observations, in this case on how to properly contextualize large numbers. (Here’s another great, though less fun, xkcd on the same topic.) 9 This is especially true given our declining birth rates and Trump’s intense aversion to immigration. If our population isn’t growing, which it likely won’t if those trends continue, it’ll exacerbate these risks even more. |