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Weekend Reads
Iran played three major roles in the anti-American axis among Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing. It destabilized the Middle East with its sprawling proxy network, acted as a diplomatic anchor for Russia and China to spread their influence in the region, and gave the axis geographic and logistical depth.
But all of that collapsed on June 13.
Zineb Riboua explains in Mosaic how Operation Rising Lion and Operation Midnight Hammer have dealt a blow to the anti-Western alliance and what this means for China, Russia, and the United States. Her key points are below.
Key Insights
1. Iran’s weakness harms China’s project of displacing the US on the world stage.
Iran is central to China’s Middle East strategy, not simply as a regional partner but as a strategic asset through which Beijing can challenge US dominance. By deepening ties with Tehran, China establishes a presence in one of the most conflict-ridden areas of the world while avoiding the risks and costs of military entanglement. This approach gives China access to energy resources, port infrastructure, and intelligence-sharing opportunities that would otherwise be extremely difficult to obtain. By striking deep within Iranian territory, targeting key military installations, dismantling hardened logistics networks, and even demonstrating that it could bomb oil fields, Israel demolished Iran’s image as a reliable partner for China and disrupted years of meticulous Chinese planning in its quest to challenge the United States and its allies.
2. Russia has lost a crucial partner in its war against Ukraine—and a significant part of its ability to project power in the Middle East and Africa.
Until this week, Russia’s alliance with Iran has been the cornerstone of Moscow’s strategic posture in the Middle East. The Kremlin’s main priority is its war in Ukraine, an effort in which it relies heavily on Iranian support across three related dimensions: battlefield logistics, the projection of regional power and influence, and ideologically coordinated anti-Western propaganda. But Iran’s deteriorating regional standing, worsened by sustained Israeli strikes and the loss of its Syrian foothold, has sharply curtailed Tehran’s ability to support Russian operations or project influence on Moscow’s behalf.
3. By supporting Israel, President Donald Trump strengthened the US position in the Middle East and protected America’s interests.
By supporting, leveraging, and ultimately joining in Israel’s campaign, President Trump has reasserted US leadership at a rare moment of strategic opportunity, reestablishing America’s influence as the region’s defining power. The US-Israel campaign has also opened the door to a new Middle East. By dismantling Tehran’s military and ideological foundations, this offensive has shattered the regional order that empowered anti-American proxies and emboldened America’s adversaries. With Iran weakened, the US has an opportunity to strengthen its alliances with the moderate Arab states, while cementing Washington and Jerusalem as the architects of a revitalized regional balance.
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
Representative Joe Wilson (R-SC) recently introduced legislation to sanction the Moroccan insurgent group Polisario Front. In a policy memo from April, Zineb Riboua explains why designating the group as a foreign terrorist organization would strengthen the US position in great power competition.
On the podcast The Other Superpower, Rebeccah Heinrichs and Mary Kissel discussed the “no-limits friendship” between Russia and China—and why freedom is one of America’s key advantages against its authoritarian adversaries.
On Fox News, Bryan Clark explained the state of Iran’s military following weeks of devastating strikes and the possibility of further retaliation.
