A fragile truce, a missed opportunity, and a regime still standing. Plus: Pride Month ends with a stark truth.

No images? Click here [link removed]

It’s Great To Have You Back

This week’s Unbelief Brief takes a hard look at the fallout from the recent ceasefire between Iran and Israel. While war has been narrowly avoided, the path forward for the Islamic Republic remains murky. With regime change chatter fading and American force on full display, Iran’s leaders face a choice: escalate further or turn inward. Meanwhile, as Pride Month concludes, our EXMNA Insights examines the Islamic roots of anti-LGBTQ+ persecution—and reaffirms our commitment to those forced to live in fear for simply being themselves.

Unbelief Brief

The picture of how events will unfold remains uncertain, but the recent ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel may give the Islamic Republic an off-ramp to safety, if they choose to take it. Chatter about possible futures for a post-theocratic Iran was buzzing [[link removed]] mere days ago, as President Trump himself appeared to threaten regime change online. Although it remains unclear [[link removed]] how extensively [[link removed]] the American airstrikes damaged [[link removed]] Iran’s nuclear program, the US has demonstrated its willingness to act with force against it. The possibility of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon seems dead.

What does this mean for the Islamists still running the place? The answer to that question probably depends [[link removed]] on whether Iran persists in its antagonistic posture or decides to retreat inward. Secretary of State Rubio has expressed publicly [[link removed]] that regime change would become likely if Iran stayed its current course, but he has also said he does not see it as the US’s responsibility to “set up governments” around the world. If this represents America’s genuine position, the mullahs can probably expect to be left alone if they choose isolation. And the Iranian people would continue to be governed by an exceedingly unpopular and repressive regime.

But of course, so much of the logic of the Islamic Revolution was international. Imagining an isolationist Islamic Republic is difficult when a central purpose of the regime is—and has been—“death to Israel.” Political authorities with a sense of self-preservation will have to look behind them at the ideological hardliners, whose support is a large reason for the theocracy’s continued existence. Should the regime lose legitimacy in the eyes of that militant minority, we will truly be in uncharted waters. Regardless, Iranian authorities will have to contend with their own restive populace no matter what, following what can only be described as an international humiliation.

With all the caveats about how quickly things can change, the one clear thing at the moment is that—for the time being—Iran’s theocracy has survived one of its greatest hours of peril.

EXMNA Insights

As Pride Month comes to a close, it’s worth confronting a harsh truth: in many Muslim-majority countries, homosexuality is not just taboo—it’s criminalized, with punishments ranging from imprisonment to flogging to death. These severe penalties aren’t simply cultural hangovers—they’re rooted directly in hadith and Islamic jurisprudence. In fact, all four major Sunni schools of Islamic law prescribe punishment for same-sex acts, most often the death penalty.

One common justification for this stance is that same-sex relationships don’t lead to reproduction. But this reasoning doesn’t hold up since Islamic doctrine permits non-procreative sex between spouses and even allows sexual relations with female slaves—who, as property, have no legal right to consent. Clearly, the objection is not about procreation, but about enforcing a selective moral code. At its core, the doctrine reveals more about patriarchal control and power than it does about any consistent ethical logic.

At EXMNA, we reject this rigid, punitive mindset and stand firmly with those in the LGBTQ+ community—especially those who face religiously justified hatred and persecution. No one should have to choose between being true to themselves and staying safe. We will continue to advocate for the freedom, dignity, and human rights of all people—regardless of whom they love.

Until next week,

The Team at Ex-Muslims of North America

P.S. We’d love to hear from you! Share your feedback at [email protected].

make a contribution [[link removed]]

Whether it’s giving $5 or $500, help us fight for a future where all are free to follow their conscience.

get to know more about our mission [[link removed]]

[[link removed]] Share [link removed] Tweet [link removed] Share [[link removed]] Forward [link removed]

© 2024 Ex-Muslims of North America. All rights reserved.

Read EXMNA's Privacy Policy [[link removed]] here

You're receiving this because you've subscribed to EXMNA for regular updates and insights. If you no longer wish to receive our emails, you can unsubscribe below.

Preferences [link removed] | Unsubscribe [link removed]