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Edited by: James Desio and Lexi Baker

Happy Thursday! In today’s newsletter, we examine MAGA voters’ views on isolationism, student loan policies in the reconciliation bill, and manufacturing employment decline in America. 

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1. Iran, Isolationism, and MAGA

Topline: Of self-identified MAGA Republicans, 90 percent say that “preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is important to U.S. security.” AEI’s Marc Thiessen contends that MAGA voters are not splintering over debates of isolationism, contrary to speculation from some commenters after the US strikes on Iran.

The Numbers: In the same poll, conducted before the US strikes, 74 percent of MAGA Republicans said that preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons mattered a great deal to US security, while only 64 percent of non-MAGA Republicans said the same.

A Vocal Minority: A small number of loud right-wing isolationists have skewed the perception of Trump’s base, Thiessen asserts. In reality, MAGA Republicans are highly unified behind President Donald Trump and Israel.

“On virtually every metric measured—from support for Taiwan and NATO to concerns about democracy, human rights, China and U.S. leadership—self-identified MAGA Republicans are more supportive of strong, principled American leadership on the world stage than their non-MAGA GOP brethren.”—Marc Thiessen

2. Higher Ed in Reconciliation

Topline: Senate Republicans released a new proposal aiming to ensure college graduates earn enough to repay their debt—otherwise, their college programs will lose federal student loan eligibility. AEI’s Preston Cooper finds that the vast majority of degree and certificate programs would maintain eligibility under the new rule.

The Calculation: Benchmarks are calculated by comparing the earnings of alumni to high school graduates in the same state, both several years postgraduation. The proposal is part of the Senate reconciliation bill.

Who Passes the Test:

• Over 90 percent of bachelor’s and master’s programs at public institutions meet the earning requirements.
• Less than 45 percent of associate degree programs at private and public institutions meet the earnings requirements.
• All undergraduate certificates and doctoral degrees meet the requirement.

The Shortcomings: For many degree programs, former students will make slightly above the benchmark but still face huge levels of debt. Cooper argues that adding incentives for colleges to reduce debt further for low-earning programs and introducing lower borrowing limits would strengthen the proposal.

“Overall, the Senate’s “do no harm” proposal would strengthen the higher education system. But the current political environment presents a once-in-a-generation chance to fix the broken federal role in higher education. Lawmakers shouldn’t miss the opportunity to go further.”—Preston Cooper

3. Age of Protectionism

Topline: Manufacturing as a share of total nonfarm employment has been declining since the end of World War II, and tariffs are unlikely to reverse this trend. AEI’s Michael Strain illustrates that the declining manufacturing employment rate is not justification for protectionism and is a misunderstanding of underlying job dynamics.

Driver of Decline: The manufacturing employment level has been falling since well before China entered the World Trade Organization in 2001 or NAFTA was created in 1994. This dynamic, coupled with productivity increases over the same time period, indicates that technological progress, not trade, drove this decline.

Fair Compensation: Already more dangerous and less pleasant, manufacturing jobs also have a lower average wage than service sector jobs. If the Trump administration is successful in moving more jobs to the US, the average manufacturing wage will decrease further.

“Supporters of protectionism seem to think that because manufacturing employment has been declining for decades, the US’s ability to produce has also been declining. Indeed, the assertion that ‘the United States doesn’t make things anymore’ is as common as it is incorrect. The US does not need to adopt protectionist policies—to say nothing of starting a severe global trade war—to create the capacity to produce goods; it already has that capacity.”—Michael Strain

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