It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.
WE’RE MOVING INTO A LEGISLATIVE RED ZONE
By Lisa Desjardins
“This is miserable,” Texas Rep. Chip Roy told me. He is one of a few dozen Republicans who will determine if and when congressional Republicans move what could be the biggest bill — in terms of dollars — in American history.
Congress is now in a legislative red zone. Multiple deadlines and priorities are overlapping and applying pressure on all lawmakers right now.
So let’s do a quick update on where things stand with the big bill, or as President Donald Trump calls it, the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
The Senate parliamentarian says no
A good deal of the bill’s fate rests with the ultimate non-partisan: the Senate
parliamentarian. It is Elizabeth MacDonough’s job to rule on which provisions meet the specific requirements of the budget process that Republicans are using to get around Senate filibuster rules. She must judge, among other things, if each idea has a real budget effect.
And one that would require states either pay more or provide fewer benefits in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly known as food stamps). That idea would have meant more than $125 billion in cuts over several years.
These are largely wins for Democrats, but as I write, Republicans are trying to rework these proposals to get them back in the bill. (Earlier Tuesday, the parliamentarian approved a tweaked version of Republicans’ SNAP proposal, I’ve confirmed.)
What about Medicaid cuts and reform? We are waiting for her rulings on that, which could come in the next day.
Overall state of play
House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks during his weekly press conference at the U.S. Capitol. Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images
Republicans are still going to try to get this through by July 4, despite increasing consternation. The rough plan is for the Senate to try to pass the bill this weekend and then dare the House to vote it down.
This plan is fraught with potential peril. Or, should it succeed, glory.
While Senate leadership felt upbeat this morning, senators emerged from a conference lunch with more serious faces, telling me of a “robust” “family discussion” that speaks to the real fault lines still apparent.
The problems
Here’s my shortlist of the largest vote problems at hand:
Rural Republicans. Red-state Republicans are worried about Medicaid and rural hospitals. A proposal to add a new fund — billions of dollars — for rural hospitals may help, but it is a hasty Band-Aid.
Expansion state Republicans. Republicans whose states have seen real health care gains thanks to Medicaid expansion are concerned about cuts in the Senate draft. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., on Monday gave out sheets to fellow senators showing the states most affected, including a steep hit to his home state.
Fiscal conservatives. This group is irate over the tsunami of red ink and believe the Senate draft so far has made it worse. They want tighter cuts to green energy credits.
Green energy Republicans. A group of at least four Republican senators want the bill to go the other way — and allow tax credits for solar and wind to remain for a longer window of time.
Salty over SALT. In general, Republican senators despise the tax deduction given to states with high state and local taxes (SALT). But the House SALT caucus, members largely from New York state, are digging in over their demand that the deduction be at least $40,000. And they have enough votes to kill the bill. This is a chamber fight and a key disagreement for the bill moving forward.
Robots. The provision to ban states from regulating artificial intelligence is also exposing a rift. Some “states’ rights” Republicans say this is a federal taking of power. But others, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, defend it as a practical and necessary approach to an emerging technology.
The four big deadlines
And this is not the only hot spot.
Congress has four major deadlines approaching.
The big “Big, Beautiful Bill” target date. A self-imposed deadline of July 4. Will Republicans make it? It would take a legislative miracle but the chances are greater than zero. Johnson pulls rabbits out of hats routinely, but it would be historic if both chambers make this.
Rescissions package. A Trump-triggered deadline of July 18. This is the package of $9.4 billion in immediate cuts in spending, largely to foreign aid but also to funding for public broadcasting. This too will be a push to make this deadline, but it’s likely Congress passes an amended bill by that date.
Debt ceiling. Forecasted deadline is August. This is the most certain of the four deadlines. Both parties know the economic stakes of crashing into the debt ceiling. An extension is currently in the big bill, or OBBBA.
Funding government. By law, the deadline is Sept. 30. Will they make it? Likely. But this looks like it will be messy and they are heading for more temporary funding bills. That said, I predict we will utter the phrase “possible government shutdown” in September.
Democratic lawmakers repeatedly questioned Robert F. Kennedy’s leadership today while the Health and Human Services secretary was on Capitol Hill to testify about his agency’s budget request.
In the hourslong hearing before a House panel, Democrats lambasted the secretary over his changes to U.S. vaccine policy.
A major sticking point: Kennedy’s decision to replace a key panel of vaccine experts.
Kennedy fired all 17 members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices earlier this month. The committee, which makes recommendations on vaccines to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was replaced with eight new members.
The move was swiftly met with heavy criticism from major physicians and public health groups. (So much so, that there’s a parallel effort to form systems of recommending vaccines to the public that don’t rely on the federal government’s guidance, the Washington Post reported.)
Kennedy told Democrats in the hearing that ACIP was “rife with conflicts of interests” with pharmaceutical companies and had committed “multiple acts of malpractice.” (Dr. Tom Frieden, a former director of the CDC, told PBS News that the former claim is “simply wrong” and what HHS and CDC did was “post all reported possible conflicts of interest over the last 20 or so years on the internet.”)
Republicans in Tuesday’s hearing saw actions under Kennedy’s leadership as largely copacetic.
But a notable dissenting voice emerged from the other chamber: Sen. Bill Cassidy, a physician who was a crucial but reluctant GOP “yes” vote on Kennedy’s confirmation.
Cassidy aired his concerns on social media the night before the hearing. He noted the new advisory committee members’ scientific credentials, but wrote that “some lack experience” studying new technologies, such as mRNA vaccines, and may have a “preconceived bias” against them.
The senator called for the vaccine panel to postpone its next session that was set to begin Wednesday, until the panel is “fully staffed with more robust and balanced representation — as required by law.”
Here are three notable moments from Tuesday’s hearing.
‘You lied to Sen. Cassidy’
Watch the clip in the player above.
During Kennedy’s confirmation hearings, Cassidy said he received an assurance that the would-be secretary wouldn’t make changes to ACIP.
On Tuesday, Rep. Kim Schrier, D-Wash., a pediatrician, accused Kennedy of lying to Cassidy in order to secure the senator’s confirmation vote.
Schrier emphasized that Kennedy didn’t have experience treating patients, including babies, who had vaccine-preventable diseases.
“I will lay all responsibility for every death from a vaccine- preventable illness at your feet,” she told Kennedy.
Kennedy denied that he made such an agreement with the senator during the confirmation process.
“If [Cassidy] said that I agreed to it, it would be inaccurate,” he said.
‘Science is not on your side’
Watch the clip in the player above.
Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., told Kennedy he has promoted “unfounded and unscientific” therapies and conspiracy theories without providing data and evidence.
“Science is not on your side,” Pallone said, adding that people are “going to die as a result of your actions and congressional Republicans’ actions.”
In his opening remarks, Kennedy pledged a “new era of transparency.” Pallone said he hasn’t seen any evidence of that, with many major decisions being done “behind closed doors without any public engagement.”
A failing grade for the errors in a ‘MAHA’ report
Watch the clip in the player above.
Rep. Raul Ruiz, D-Calif., gave Kennedy a failing grade for an assessment of childhood chronic disease released by the Department of Health and Human Services in May.
The Democrat said the wide-ranging “Make America Healthy Again” report was “riddled with mistakes, misconstruing, and intentionally or not, misstating key references, data and evidence that either do not exist or not accurately reflected in the report.”
A sticky note with a handwritten “F” could be seen on the report Ruiz held up.
Kennedy said the errors were corrected within 24 hours. Ruiz said some of the citations in the report were to papers that didn’t exist.
THIS WEEK’S TRIVIA QUESTION
Watch the segment in the player above.
By Joshua Barajas
Senior Editor, Digital
It’s primary day in New York.
The New York City mayoral race is grabbing the most headlines. Tuesday’s vote will determine which Democrat in the crowded field of 11 candidates will face incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who’s running as an independent, in November.
The race has also drawn more attention to New York City’s ranked choice voting system. New York City is one of the most prominent jurisdictions that use this system, joining 46 other cities.
Only two U.S. states use ranked choice voting, including one that recently weighed a referendum to undo the system.
Our question: Which U.S. state sought to repeal its ranked choice system last year?
Send your answers to [email protected] or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.
Last week, we asked: How many states, including Virginia, hold off-year elections?
The answer: Five. Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia. For the Old Dominion in particular, one expert told NPR that it’s conventional wisdom that “Virginia does not want to moor its ship to the federal man-of-war," or that its off-year elections helps keep the state inoculated against national moods.
Congratulations to our winners: Barry Weinstein and Edward Stering!
Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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