Strike Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months

A preliminary classified U.S. report says the American bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings, according to officials familiar with the findings. The early findings conclude that the strikes over the weekend set back Iran’s nuclear program by only a few months, as the NYT reports.

Dive Deeper:

“What Operation Midnight Hammer Means for the Future of Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions” by CSIS’s Joseph Rodgers.

“The Fallout Factor in Targeting Iran’s Nuclear Program” by CSIS’s Doreen Horschig and Bailey Shiff.

Shaky Ceasefire Appears to Hold

Israel and Iran entered Tuesday morning into a shaky ceasefire, which faltered and then appeared to hold, bringing an apparent end to 12 days of fighting, as The Washington Post reports.

Dive Deeper: “Is the Islamic Republic Starting to Crack? The Signs to Watch” by the Washington Institute’s Holly Dagres.

Powell Reaffirms Wait-and-See Posture on Rate Cuts

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Tuesday that recent economic data would have likely justified continuing to lower interest rates if not for concerns that higher tariffs might derail the central bank’s years-long fight to defeat inflation, as the WSJ reports.

Executive Education

Looking for the tools to navigate times of uncertainty and significant change with minimum disruption? The CSIS Global Strategy Lab combines virtual and in-person experiences to deliver the strategic insight, global perspective, and communication tools required to drive success in times of change. Register by August 29 to join a community of seasoned leaders from across the private sector, government, and nonprofits.

Audio Briefs

CSIS now offers audio versions of our latest analysis. Listen to the latest Commentary by CSIS's Doreen Horschig and Bailey Schiff, "The Fallout Factor in Targeting Iran’s Nuclear Program."

In That Number

1.5 Million

Iran, which is subject to a harsh international sanctions regime, relies on China to buy its oil— Chinese imports are estimated to reach 1.5 million barrels in June—nearly all of which transits through the Strait of Hormuz, making it unlikely that Iran would fully block the crucial waterway.
Source: The Washington Post

Critical Quote

“These guys got to calm down. Ridiculous.”

—President Donald Trump

iDeas Lab

A new CSIS Chart shows recent ethane export controls could hurt U.S. producers, fail to pressure China, and cast doubt about U.S. reliability as a trade partner. Read the full analysis here.

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and multimedia.

Optics

(Photo credit: Mostafa Alkharouf/Getty Images.) First response teams conduct search and rescue operations at a building that was heavily damaged and partially collapsed by a missile fired from Iran in Beersheba, Israel, on June 24, 2025.

This Town Upcoming

On Thursday at 9:00 a.m., the CSIS Aerospace Security Project hosts a conversation on how allied innovation, battlefield learning, and frontline resilience are shaping the future of defense.

On Friday at 11:00 a.m., the CSIS Defense and Security Department welcomes General Ronald Clark, Commanding General, U.S. Army Pacific, to explore the role of landpower in the Indo-Pacific.

Later, on Friday at 1:30 p.m., the CSIS Defense and Security Department discusses the Israel-Iran war, Operation Midnight Hammer, and the future of Iran's nuclear program.

Video

Yesterday, the CSIS Aerospace Security Project held a fireside chat with Air Marshal Paul Godfrey, Assistant Chief of Space Operations for Future Concepts and Partnerships, as he unveils the U.S. Space Force International Partnership Strategy. Watch the full video here.

Podcasts

CSIS’s Mona Yacoubian joins the podcast to discuss Iran's strike on Al Udeid Air Base, the largest American military installation in the Middle East, and the broader strategic implications of the Israel-Iran conflict.

Listen on Spotify & Apple Podcasts.

Smiles

No matter how many times I watch The Brothers’ performance at Madison Square Garden last April, I still can’t stop smiling. Derek Trucks is the best guitarist in the world—full stop. But the overall musicianship of the band isn’t far behind. I have questions: 1) When will they release a live album from the two-night stint at MSG? and 2) When will The Brothers tour?

It looks like there are no plans on either account, so we will have to smile at clips like this one.

I invite you to email me at [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz

The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed by Lauren Adler, Ava Rose, and the External Relations team.