Q. How do you ‘distill’ the meaning of Israel’s ‘Rising Lion’ war with Iran at a time when it is still ongoing and metamorphosing almost by the hour? A. First, we must recognize that Israel’s June 13 preemptive attack was a resounding military maneuver that will apparently have a profound effect on the Middle East and beyond. Whatever happens from here, this achievement cannot be erased. Israel’s demonstration of aerial and intelligence domination of Iran is unprecedented. So is Syrian and Iraqi passivity or neutrality when confronted with Israel’s massive overflights. Even the historic US B2 attack on Fordow could only take place after the Israel Air Force had cleared the skies over Iran. A lot of the Israel Defense Force’s audacity in attacking Iran reflects and responds to Israel’s trauma from October 7, 2023. That is a topic for separate analysis. Here we attempt to ‘distill’ the meaning of the war by focusing on strategic underpinnings that continue to underlie and inform events. And by focusing on the dangers of overreach by Israel and/or the United States. Q. Start with the strategic underpinnings... A. There are aspects of this war that fit classic definitions. This is a ‘war by choice’ for both Israel and the US. They are not responding to direct attack. They set the timing and took the initiative. Further, this is not a ground war: none of the belligerents has a common border with another, and none has landed troops on enemy territory. As this is an air war, it is hard to conceive of a direct military victory. By and large (and despite the boasts of air force commanders), wars are not ‘won’ from the air, but on the ground. On the other hand, Iran has been stripped of its air defenses and is today helpless against attack from the air. While the US--unless attacked directly by Iran-- can cease its own war with Iran at any time, and may already have, Israel needs an exit strategy if it is going to wind down Iran’s missile and UAV attacks against its territory. While Prime Minister Netanyahu gets near-universal credit for daring and initiative in taking the war directly to Iran, he is also being criticized for starting a war with Iran, precisely without having an exit strategy. | 
