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Weekend Reads
“Israel dismantled core elements of Iran’s command structure, eliminated key personnel tied to nuclear development, and exposed the gaps in Iran’s internal defenses,” wrote Zineb Riboua last week in a Hudson policy memo.
Now, with Tehran vulnerable, President Donald Trump faces several options to neutralize Iran’s nuclear ambition, including striking the Fordow nuclear facility. Michael Doran appeared on Timcast IRL to discuss whether Trump would pull the trigger.
Watch the full podcast here or read his and other Hudson experts’ analysis on what the United States can do to protect its interests in the Middle East below.
Key Insights
1. Iran can still challenge Israeli missile defenses, meaning time is on Tehran’s side.
“The Iranians were running a marathon, and the Israelis are sprinting, which is one of the reasons why I think Trump might actually bomb Iran. . . . [the Iranian regime] would like to demonstrate that they’re not going to be toppled and wait until they can see that Israel is having trouble . . . producing interceptors—and then start a serious negotiation with Trump. If they could hold out that long, that would give Trump leverage over Israel to shut the thing down if he were so inclined. [The regime’s] only way out is to have the United States protect them from Israel or to have Israel run through its [air defense] magazine.”
— Michael Doran on Timcast IRL
2. President Trump has made it clear that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
“[The Israelis] don’t have the kind of heavy munitions that only the B-2 can carry. So the question is, How does this play out over a long period of time? How long do we let this go? . . . We’re talking about enough highly enriched uranium [HEU] sitting at the bottom of that mountain to fabricate between 12 and 13 nuclear weapons within a matter of two months. So they went right up to the threshold of turning that HEU into the metal. They had a clandestine program that Israel struck, involving scientists and engineers, to complete the final elements of the weapons. . . . They were very, very close. I think the president is playing this exactly correctly at this stage. He’s made crystal clear that they have to, in effect, surrender their nuclear weapons program; that there can be zero enrichment. The mullahs and the ayatollah, it’s on the table for them: if they don’t take the deal, they have to pay the consequences.
3. Striking Fordow could demonstrate American military strength and resolve.
“The Iranian regime is a wounded animal. The United States has a direct strategic interest in seeing the collapse of Fordow. I think that we need to demonstrate that we have the political will to do this, and that we are a good ally to the Israelis. And we can demonstrate the overwhelming power of these B-2 bombers. . . . The Chinese should know that we would not leave anything inside mainland China a sanctuary, if, in fact, they decided to contest the United States. . . . So I think it sets a powerful message about the strength of the American military at a critical time in geopolitics.”
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
On NewsNation, Bryan Clark explained the Iranian missile technology that is challenging Israel’s missile defenses.
On What Really Matters, Walter Russell Mead emphasized that while Trump prefers to avoid military action, the president has demonstrated that he is willing to strike if necessary.
In The Free Press, Michael Doran explains how Israel achieved strategic surprise to dismantle Iran’s military leadership and nuclear ambitions.
