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** While Defunding California High-Speed Rail, Don’t Forget Its Costly Northern Extension
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Dear John,
Now that the Trump administration has decided to defund California high-speed rail, it should take a hard look at a related project in San Francisco that promises to wastefully absorb taxpayer funds. The project, known as the Portal, is intended to extend passenger rail service underground from the edge of San Francisco’s downtown to its gleaming but seriously underutilized Salesforce Transit Center. The tunnel adds 1.3 miles of passenger rail at a cost of $8.25 billion, making it the costliest rail project on a per-mile basis ever.
The project’s sponsor, the Transbay Joint Powers Authority (TJPA), estimates ([link removed]) that 48,000 daily riders will use the extension by 2045. But that is a fantasy given current ridership numbers. Before Covid-19 slashed transit utilization, only 15,000 riders ([link removed]) were using the current San Francisco train terminal each weekday. Although Caltrain, the commuter rail service that terminates in San Francisco, has been enjoying a spike in ridership following its $2.4 billion electrification program, the station was still only used by about 7,500 paying riders ([link removed]) on weekdays in April 2025.
And many of these riders would not avail themselves of the extension because they are not necessarily headed to the San Francisco downtown core. For example, Caltrain passengers ride the rails to attend baseball and basketball games as well as concerts at venues close to the current rail terminus. Others work at biotech firms whose offices are nearer to the current Caltrain terminal than to Salesforce Transit Center.
Although the existing rail terminal is not in the heart of San Francisco’s downtown, it is served by two light rail lines and three bus lines that reach core areas closer to the Salesforce Transit Center. Commuters can also complete their downtown trips by walking, biking, or scootering, given the short distances involved. They can even take a Waymo robotaxi, availing themselves of a new transportation option that has become popular in San Francisco. So it is unlikely that anyone now driving north into San Francisco for work will switch to transit if and when this extension becomes available.
For the Portal to reach its ambitious ridership projection, San Francisco’s subdued downtown would have to spring back to life, companies would have to unwind their pandemic-era work-from-home policies fully, and California’s High-Speed Rail project would have to be completed so that passengers from central and Southern California could reach the new terminal.
But the Trump administration has correctly concluded that the California bullet train is going nowhere. Even with the expected infusion of an additional $15 billion of state cap-and-trade revenue between 2031 and 2045, the project remains tens of billions of dollars short of what would be needed to connect San Francisco to Los Angeles via California’s Central Valley (under the cap-and-trade program companies buy pollution allowances from the state).
Under the Biden administration, the Federal Transit Administration (the Transportation Department unit that provides transit grants) had been prioritizing the Portal project and targeting ([link removed]) Summer 2027 as the date for a Full Funding Grant Agreement (FFGA), at which time the project would be awarded $3.4 billion in federal dollars. Once the new Federal Transit Administrator is in place, FTA should critically review the prior administration’s work on the Portal’s Capital Investment Grant.
Besides being a very poor value, the project is also burdened by the fact that TJPA has yet to raise sufficient state and local funds to complete the tunnel, regardless of whether it receives federal funds. The terms of an FFGA typically require the recipient to secure its portion of the project cost; however, a recent TJPA funding analysis ([link removed]) revealed that a significant portion of the Portal’s anticipated state and local funds had yet to be committed.
Ideally, the Federal Transit Administration would eliminate the FTA’s Capital Investment Grants program entirely, and leave the funding of major transit infrastructure to state and local governments. This idea was recommended ([link removed]) by the Republican Study Committee last year. But the program is fully funded in the Trump administration’s FY 2026 budget request.
Perhaps Congress will trim the administration’s request over the summer. Senator Joni Ernst (R., Iowa) previously flagged ([link removed]) California High-Speed Rail, the Portal, and the San Jose BART extension ([link removed]) as “Golden State Gravy Trains Taking Taxpayers for a Ride.” Congressional Republicans could strip these programs from future appropriations, saving taxpayers money while still allowing more deserving transit projects to be funded in other states.
Ending the Portal project could also be helpful to Bay Area transit agencies, which are struggling with operating deficits. State and local planners could redirect the $910 million currently committed to the Portal to support transit operations in and around San Francisco.
The Portal is illustrative of a broken federal grant process in which funds are committed without a thorough, unbiased cost-benefit analysis that is regularly updated as conditions change. As with California High-Speed Rail, the Portal’s costs rose, and reasonable ridership expectations declined over time. Even if these projects made sense when first conceived, they no longer do. The federal government needs a more reliable method for turning off the financial spigot to projects that cease to make sense.
— This article by California Policy Center Visiting Fellow Marc Joffe was originally published by National Review. ([link removed])
New Podcast ()
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** Radio Free California #394: Newsom Leaps Bravely Halfway Across the Political Divide
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On this week's podcast, CPC president Will Swaim is joined by former Newport Beach Mayor Will O'Neill, chairman of the Republican Party of Orange County. Bonuses! CPC VP Lance Christensen explores the state budget crisis, and CPC attorney Julie Hamill tears into Newsom’s latest anti-Trump lawsuit. Listen now. ([link removed])
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** The Public-Sector Union Behind L.A.’s Immigration Agitation
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The recent arrest of SEIU California president David Huerta highlights how the union has built its brand — and its business — by obliterating the line between legal and illegal immigration. CPC president Will Swaim explains how the union is operating as an open-borders lobby shop that also organizes workers in his latest op-ed in the The Wall Street Journal ([link removed]) .
** Valley Transportation Authority: A Textbook Case Of Special Interests Prevailing Over Public Good
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In Silicon Valley, where innovation is supposed to reign supreme, the Valley Transportation Authority has become a textbook example of government waste, mismanagement, and the creep of crony politics that prioritize insiders over the public good. Read the article ([link removed]) by CPC visiting research assistant Athan Joshi.
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