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Daily News Brief

June 20, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering a draft peace deal between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, as well as...

  • Diplomacy efforts with Iran
  • Canada’s steel and aluminum tariffs
  • Reported Chinese hacking of Russia
 
 

Top of the Agenda

The DRC and Rwanda reached a draft peace deal through U.S. and Qatari mediation and plan to sign it next week, the two parties and the United States said. The countries initialed the draft Wednesday after three days of talks in Washington. The announcement comes after a surge in the eastern Congo conflict since late last year has resulted in thousands of people killed and millions more displaced. Previous mediation attempts by Angola had failed to end the conflict. 

 

The agreement.

 

  • The agreement covers territorial integrity, a ban on hostilities, disarmament and “conditional integration” of armed groups, facilitation of refugee returns, humanitarian access, and a regional economic framework, the countries said in their joint statement. They also said a security coordination mechanism would be established that incorporates principles reached under Angolan mediation last year.
  • The minerals sector was not directly mentioned in this week’s joint statement, though the Donald Trump administration stepped up its mediation after DRC President Felix Tshisekedi offered to facilitate U.S. investment in the country’s mineral resources earlier this year. U.S.-DRC talks are underway for a separate minerals deal, the Financial Times reported.

 

Remaining challenges. Multiple ceasefires in the eastern Congo have fallen through since the M23 rebel group began their territorial push in late 2021. If the agreement moves forward, officials from Congo and the DRC are set to sign it with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio next Friday, June 27.

 

Kigali has continuously denied backing the M23 rebels, despite Kinshasa, the UN, and Western countries all maintaining that it is a basic fact of the conflict. M23 was not described as a direct party to the agreement initiated in Washington, though Qatar has been holding separate negotiations between the rebel group and the Congolese government.

 
 

“Rwanda’s aggression and the DRC’s own corruption and broken governance have been co-conspirators in fueling the current crisis. Even a deal that satisfies the leadership of those countries but lacks transparency and viable means for translating economic gains into social goods for the population may be regarded with skepticism by the Congolese people; prominent civil society leaders have warned against selling off the country’s resources for the benefit of foreign powers, a dynamic with a long and tragic history in the country.”

—CFR Senior Fellow Michelle Gavin, Africa in Transition

 

Does Trump Have the Authority to Strike Iran?

Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke from an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot rise, following Israeli strikes in Tehran on June 15, 2025.

Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters

As Trump weighs whether to join Israel’s bombing campaign of Iran, some have questioned if the president has the authority to involve the U.S. military in this conflict, Adjunct Senior Fellow John B. Bellinger III writes in this Expert Brief.

 
 

Across the Globe

Efforts at Iran diplomacy. Foreign ministers from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (UK) are holding talks with their Iranian counterpart in Geneva today after U.S. President Donald Trump said yesterday he would decide whether to take military action against Iran “within the next two weeks.” UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington yesterday, posting on social media afterward that “a window now exists” for a diplomatic solution to concerns over Iran’s nuclear activities.

 

Canada’s steel and aluminum tariffs. Ottawa announced yesterday that countries without bilateral trade agreements will face new tariffs on steel imports if they exceed 2024 levels. It also said it may adjust its 25 percent counter-tariffs to U.S. levies based on how talks with Washington have progressed by July 21. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Trump Monday and said afterward that the pair agreed to work toward a deal within thirty days. Since June 4, Washington has applied a 50 percent tariff on worldwide steel and aluminum imports except for those from the United Kingdom.

 

Chinese hacking of Russia. Chinese hacking groups accelerated attacks targeting information about Russian military operations shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, cybersecurity analysts told the New York Times. A classified Russian counterintelligence document obtained by the Times says China is trying to learn about Russia’s defense know-how; the document referred to China as the “enemy.” The Kremlin and the Chinese embassy in Moscow did not immediately respond to the newspaper’s requests for comment.

 

Thailand leak scandal. A major Thai political party exited the governing coalition yesterday over a leaked phone call between Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Sen. The pair discussed a border dispute in the call, during which Paetongtarn appeared to signal disagreements between her government and the Thai military. Hun Sen said he shared the call with dozens of officials and later posted it in its entirety. The withdrawal means Shinawatra’s party may have difficulty retaining power.

 

Spain rejects spending target. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a prospective goal for NATO members to spend 5 percent of their GDP on defense “unreasonable” in a letter sent yesterday to the alliance’s secretary-general. Sánchez described the target as “incompatible with our welfare state and our world vision.” NATO plans to discuss the target at next week’s summit; adopting it would require the consensus of all members. 

 

Warning on Russia’s economy. Russia’s economy is “on the verge” of a recession, the economy minister said yesterday at an international forum. He asked the central bank for a “little love”; interest rates stand at 20 percent. As the war with Ukraine grinds on, Putin told reporters Wednesday night that he would meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy if it were the final stage of negotiations. 

 

New Zealand cuts aid over China ties. New Zealand said yesterday it is suspending millions of dollars of aid to the Cook Islands pending further clarity on agreements the self-governing territory recently made with China. A 2001 joint New Zealand-Cook Islands declaration pledged the governments would consult each other on defense matters; they share passports and a military. The Cook Islands foreign ministry said “constructive dialogue” was underway about addressing Wellington’s concerns.


Finland landmine treaty exit. The country’s legislature voted 157–18 to advance a government proposal to leave the Ottawa Convention aimed at eliminating antipersonnel landmines. Finland shares a more than eight-hundred-mile border with Russia and officials have argued that landmines could be used to defend the country in the case of a Russian attack. Legislators in Latvia and Lithuania voted to leave the treaty earlier this year. 

 
 

The China-Russia Relationship and U.S. Foreign Policy

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, on February 4, 2022.

Sputnik/Aleksey Druzhinin/Kremlin via Reuters

How the United States should operate in a world with two great-power antagonists is the central question in U.S. foreign policy. CFR Senior Fellow Robert D. Blackwill and the Center for a New American Security’s Richard Fontaine lay out recommendations in this CFR Special Report. 

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, Nigeria begins hosting the West Africa Economic Summit.
  • Today, the Northern Hemisphere experiences the summer solstice.
  • On Sunday, Tokyo holds a metropolitan assembly election.
 
 

Potential Peace After Africa’s Forever War

M23 rebel fighters in Goma, Congo, May 2025

Arlette Bashizi/Reuters

Washington is on the right track as it works toward an end to the conflict in eastern Congo. But it should take a more multilateral approach to consolidate its gains, Reagan Miviri, Jason K. Stearns, and Joshua Z. Walker write for Foreign Affairs.

 
 

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