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The Daybreak Insider
Friday, June 20, 2025
1.
Trump Faces the Biggest Decision of His Life

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Thursday: President Donald Trump will make a decision on the U.S. becoming involved in Israel’s conflict with Iran within the next two weeks (Fox News). Hugh Hewitt: It is the decision of whether or not to order the United States military to assist Israel in destroying what remains of Iran’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. The U.S. has the capabilities to do so. Does President Trump have the will to order it be done? If he does, he will almost certainly bring this war to an end and open the road to a vast expansion of the Abraham Accords…. if President Trump orders our military to destroy the most hardened targets in Iran’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, he will be ending a war that has been underway since first Ayatollah Khomeini and now Ayatollah Khamenei began waging against the U.S. in 1979, a war that has befuddled and defeated the best hopes and most complicated plans of every president since Jimmy Carter, who was shocked by the medieval fanaticism of the “true believers” behind the coup of the 1978-1979 revolution which toppled the Shah and then eliminated all other aspirants for government in Iran…. The appeasement caucus within the United States is loud. It’s “sunk costs,” especially for those with fingerprints on President Obama’s disastrous “JCPOA” agreement …. President Trump can join the first rank of presidents with this decision. Pray he makes the right one (Fox News).

2.
Iran’s Command and Control Structures Collapsing
Reza Pahlavi on Thursday evening: Sources inside Iran say that the regime’s command and control structures are collapsing at a rapid pace. Meanwhile, the international community is beginning to realize that the Islamic Republic has no future. Our discussions about a post-Islamic Republic Iran have begun (Pahlavi). Pahlavi is the son of the late Shah of Iran. Jerusalem Post: In a Tuesday video statement in Farsi, Pahlavi sought to reassure Iranians that opposition forces have a plan for the country’s future. “Iran will not descend into civil war or instability,” he said. “We are prepared for the first 100 days of the transitional period after the fall, and for the establishment of a national and democratic government by the Iranian people and for the Iranian people” (Jerusalem Post).

3.
Israel Is Looking to End the War Iran Started
“Israel is doing the west an extraordinary service.” Melanie Phillips, writing from Israel: No-one here doubts for a moment that Israel will win this war, even though it may be protracted and the price may be very steep. Israel hasn’t started a war with Iran: it has started the end of Iran’s war against Israel and the west because the Jewish state believes it has no choice. Many have never understood that the past 20 months of events in Gaza, since the atrocities of October 7 2023, are part of a multi-front war of extermination waged against Israel by Iran through its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and the disputed territories of the “West Bank” … In fact, if Israel now smashes the Iran-based Shia axis this will reshape the Middle East for the better, transform the global political order and remove an unconscionable threat not just to Israel but to the west too — including the clowns in the House of Commons.“When you chant ‘Death to America!’ it is not just a slogan – it is a policy,” said Iran’s supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, in 2023. In Britain, the security service has warned of an “extraordinary threat” of Iranian terrorist attacks. Israel is doing the west an extraordinary service — for which the Jewish state is paying in blood — that much of the west still obdurately refuses to realise (Substack).

4.
The National Guard Can Stay: Ninth Circuit Rules in Favor of Trump
Susie Moore of Red State: The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has issued its ruling on the Trump administration’s motion for a stay pending appeal. The court granted the motion, meaning the National Guard may remain under federal control for the time being. Shortly after President Trump issued orders federalizing the Guard in response to riots that broke out in and around Los Angeles, ostensibly following protests of immigration raids in the area, Newsom filed suit in federal court to block the move. Of note, he filed the suit in the Northern District of California rather than in the Central District, which serves Los Angeles. Judge Charles Breyer then issued a temporary restraining order (TRO) ordering the return of control of the Guard to the state. Within hours of that ruling, however, a three-judge panel at the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals issued an administrative (temporary) stay in response to the administration’s appeal. Oral argument was heard before the 9th Circuit on Tuesday afternoon. Now, they’ve permanently stayed the district court’s TRO pending the appeal of the case (Red State). From the ruling: we are persuaded that, under longstanding precedent interpreting the statutory predecessor to 12406, our review of that decision must be highly deferential. Affording the President that deference, we conclude that it is likely that the President lawfully exercised his statutory authority … which authorizes federalization of the National Guard when “the President is unable with the regular forces to execute the laws of the United States” (US Courts).

5.
New Student Visa Applicants to Include Screening of Social Media
Free Press: State Department employees who review applications from foreign citizens for student and exchange visas will be told to review their social media posts and search for signs that they “bear hostile attitudes toward our citizens, culture, government, institutions, or founding principles,” according to a document obtained exclusively by The Free Press. The instructions are being announced today and will be sent to consular offices in a cable, the State Department’s official channel of communication. Toughened social media reviews “will ensure we are properly screening every single person attempting to visit our country,” the official added…. “Removing foreign nationals from the United States, even when they have clearly violated our laws, is a lengthy, expensive, and difficult process,” the instructions said. “Therefore, we must be vigilant during the visa issuance process” (Free Press).

6.
J.D. Vance Weighs in On Supreme Court Transgender Youth Decision, Gets Immediately Banned on Bluesky
Bluesky is the aspiring competitor to X. New York Post:  Vice President JD Vance was suspended from the left-leaning social media platform Bluesky on Wednesday, just minutes after joining and sharing his first post. “Hello Bluesky, I’ve been told this app has become the place to go for common sense political discussion and analysis,” Vance wrote in his first post on the X competitor. “So I’m thrilled to be here to engage with all of you.”  The vice president went on to weigh in on the Supreme Court’s ruling that upheld Tennessee’s restrictions on transgender medical treatments for minors. “To that end, I found Justice [Clarence] Thomas’s concurrence on medical care for transgender youth quite illuminating,” Vance wrote, including a screenshot of the conservative justice’s statement agreeing with the 6-3 ruling (New York Post). Bluesky did restore Vance’s account. John Sexton of Hot Air: Despite the clear signs of a progressive immunity reaction, Bluesky claimed the account had not been taken down because it was reported but because of some automated system. In a statement to Newsweek Wednesday evening, a spokesperson for the platform said Vance’s account was removed because Bluesky’s system flagged it as a potential impostor…. After having his account disabled and then restored, he quickly became the most blocked person on the platform…. I don’t think his joining the site was a failure at all. It demonstrated, once again, that Bluesky is a hateful, intolerant bubble made up of angry progressives who can’t stand to hear any opinion they disagree with (Hot Air).

7.
While Los Angeles Rioted, Governor Newsom Sipped Wine at “Swanky” Napa Valley Winery
If the nation needed yet another illustration of how politically tone-deaf Newsom is: As riots engulfed Los Angeles and mobs vandalized public buildings, incinerated vehicles, and assaulted law enforcement officers, California governor Gavin Newsom was enjoying a swanky wine-tasting party in Napa Valley. The wine-tasting was held on the afternoon of June 7, 2025, at the Odette Estate Winery, which Newsom co-founded in 2011. Dubbed “Vineyard Vibes,” the event was a fundraiser for the PlumpJack Foundation, founded by Newsom’s sister, and featured “contemporary yet sophisticated” wines, live jazz music, and locally made pizza and smash burgers. “It’s the perfect kick-off to summer fun,” read promotional language. “The fete will take place on the Winery Crushpad, where we’ll gather for music, food, conversation, and delicious wine!” (City Journal). Many readers will remember: During Covid—as Californians were masked and social-distanced and the governor was faithfully instilling fear into the proletariat, he was dining at another “swanky” outlet—the French Landry, also in Napa. Even the New York Times was upset: Photos that surfaced this week of a dinner at the French Laundry, a temple of haute cuisine in Napa Valley where some prix fixe meals go for $450 per person, have sparked outrage in a state where Democratic leaders have repeatedly admonished residents to be extra vigilant amid the biggest spike in infections since the pandemic began. The revelations come as Mr. Newsom and other officials have asked Californians to make sacrifices to stop the spread of the virus, most recently beseeching them to stay home and avoid visiting extended family over Thanksgiving (New York Times).

8.
Border Patrol Finds Half-Mile Drug-Smuggling Tunnel From Tijuana to San Diego
Los Angeles Times: At a depth of about 50 feet, a roughly half-mile-long tunnel connecting a home inside the Nueva Tijuana neighborhood with a commercial warehouse across the border in San Diego County has been uncovered by federal authorities. U.S. and Mexican authorities say they believe the passage was dug to transport large-scale contraband. The tunnel measured 42 inches in height, 28 inches in width and was equipped with electrical wiring, lighting, ventilation systems and a track system, according to authorities. Whatever safe passage the tunnel offered ended Monday when Border Patrol agents shut down the construction site with the aid of Department of Homeland Security officials and Mexican authorities. “As we continue to strengthen the nation’s air, and maritime border security, it’s not surprising that foreign terrorist organizations would resort to underground routes,” Jeffrey D. Stalnaker, acting chief patrol agent of the San Diego Sector, said in a statement. “Disruption of narcotics smuggling tunnels is critical to protecting American lives” (Los Angeles Times). Governor Newsom ought to be thanking the good men and women serving with Border Patrol.

9.
Israel-Iran Is Not Iraq 2.0
Brendan O’Neill of Spiked: The debate about Israel/Iran is at risk of being derailed by disinformation. Gaslighting swirls all around it. This is a crazed stab at ‘regime change’, cry Israel’s critics, and we all know what hellish things spring from ‘regime change’. It is an ‘illegal war’ and a ‘war of aggression’, insists the left. And the trump card: it’s Iraq all over again. Both the digital right and digital left are ‘invoking the spectre of Iraq’, in the words of the New York Times. ‘Welcome to Iraq 2.0’, says the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Only worse – Israel’s ‘unprovoked attack’ on Iran has the potential to be ‘far, far more catastrophic’, apparently. The moral evasion on display here is off the charts. To compare Israel’s fight against its fanatical tormentors in Tehran with America and Britain’s vain and ruinous war on Iraq is to be wilfully blind to both historical truth and moral principle. First, there’s the fact that Saddam’s regime did not attack us. This was a shattered nation, broken by the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s and the West’s sanctions and bombing raids of the 1990s. In 2003, Iraq barely posed a threat to its neighbours, far less to mighty America or Britain. Washington and London’s depiction of this shell of a regime as a threat to the world was the blackest of black propaganda. It was the lie that unleashed untold horrors. The Israel-Iran clash is wholly the reverse of this. Iran has attacked Israel ceaselessly and ferociously. Its neo-fascist proxies in Hamas sent a 6,000-strong army into Israel in October 2023 where they raped and murdered hundreds. Its most important proxy – Hezbollah – followed up this pogrom with barrages of missiles into northern Israel. Between Hamas’s pogrom and June of last year, Hezbollah fired 5,000 rockets and other projectiles at Israel. This caused the evacuation of 60,000 people and the deaths of scores of civilians, including 12 Druze kids. Iran itself has directly fired missiles at Israel: 120 ballistic missiles in April 2024; 200 in October 2024 (Spiked).

10.
The Long War Against the Jews
Commentary: As we consider Israel’s iron determination to rid itself and the world of the Iranian nuclear threat, we must stop to wonder at the seriousness of national purpose demonstrated by the Jewish state over the course of the past two decades. According to the analyst Amit Segal, the first elements of the plan to take out Iran’s nukes were put in motion 19 years ago, in 2006, when trucks used in June 2025 to hide and then launch surface-to-surface missiles were first driven into Iran by Israeli intelligence agents and hidden there…. Preventing Iran from going nuclear is not only the reason Benjamin Netanyahu believes he was elevated to power. It is the very reason Israel exists. Now the war is on—the war against the war against the Jews, as never before. It is the war that could not be waged four score and seven years ago because there was no strong and determined Jewish state in existence. Israel has spent 78 years of fighting and growing and failing and succeeding and learning and sacrificing to get to this moment. God bless and Godspeed (Commentary).

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