Facing Facts: Bergen County’s GOP Has Work to Do

Glaring Registration Gaps, Vote-by-Mail & Voter Turnout. What It Means for 2025

Bergen County,

I'd like to provide a very "frank" assessment of where things currently stand for the GOP in Bergen County as we look ahead to November. While Jack Ciattarelli’s decisive win over Mikie Sherrill in last week’s primary appears encouraging, and a likely precursor a statewide victory, the broader numbers however tell a different story in Bergen. For clarity, Election Day in November will not pit the people who voted for Jack against those who voted for Mikie Sherrill. It will be the GOP vs. the Democrat electorate!

As such, there are at least three relevant datapoints to consider:

TURNOUT: Democrat voter turnout in Bergen far exceeded Republican turnout: nearly 81k vs. less than 40k - a margin of more than two-to-one. This isn’t a fluke; it's a Bergen County trend that has extended every year, surpassing the baseline registration differential.

REGISTRATION: Overall Democrat registration outpaces Republicans by a 1.5 to 1 margin (244k to 158k). However, with 40% of all Bergen voters registered as unaffiliated, this margin alone doesn't tell the full story. But when considering an 8-point advantage in Democrat turnout, the math become harder to ignore.

VOTE BY MAIL: The most concerning metric however is the current vote-by-mail differential. Democrats cast more than 22,000 VBM ballots last week, compared to barely 6,000 for Republicans. That’s a staggering 3.6 to 1 differential - one of the widest, registration-adjusted gaps in the state. The Bergen GOP is one of the few relevant counties in New Jersey losing the "VBM war”. And absent a coordinated “chase initiative”, that spread is likely to grow.

To sum things up, Republicans lost at the County level in Bergen by: 2 to 1 in early voting, 1.7 to 1 on Election Day, and 3.6 to 1 in VBM. And even with an increase in November turnout, the trend is "5th-grade math" clear that Democrats are again likely to outpace Republicans in Bergen in 2025.

Now let’s get specific: If for example, we optimistically project general election turnout at 46% for Democrats, Republicans, and Unaffiliated voters, Ciattarelli will need to take 69.3% of the unaffiliated voters just to win Bergen County. And with VBM ballots set to arrive in 90 days, there’s virtually no chance of significantly altering the registration differentials.

What this ally means, is that it's becoming harder to see a path to a GOP victory for our "county" candidates in 2025 - which should come as no surprise given the current 13-year drought.

In 2021, Jack Ciattarelli fell short in Bergen by 50,000 votes, out of a statewide deficit of over 84,000. However, while the 2025 Bergen County election results may look similar to 2021, Jack's tireless campaign style, President Trump's support, and far better Republican state-wide voter registration numbers compared to 2021, his overall chances for victory appear far stronger this time around. He may be well-positioned to win New Jersey this year - not because of Bergen, but in spite of it.

The bottom line is this: There’s still a long way to go, and Bergen County remains an uphill battle for Republicans. However, Jack Ciattarelli is running for Governor of New Jersey, not the Governor of Bergen County. So, every vote received (even in a Democrat dominated county) is extremely relevant in a state-wide race. The focus in Bergen must be to maximize GOP turnout and winning the unaffiliated voters.

Let’s keep pushing, with eyes wide open.

Respectfully,

Frank Pallotta