Critical State: The Last Gasp of Neoconservatism

President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda faces a critical test as Israel’s recent strikes on Iran threaten to entangle the US in another Middle East conflict, wrote Freddie Hayward in The New Republic.

Trump, who campaigned on ending foreign wars, a platform that appealed to anti-neoconservative policy, or those opposed to an interventionist foreign policy that historically influenced US foreign policy, particularly during the administration of former President George W. Bush.

Trump initially urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stand down but later praised the attack.

His MAGA base is deeply divided. Prominent MAGA figures, including Tucker Carlson and Steve Bannon, have criticized intervention, while others, such as Sean Hannity and Mark Levin, advocate for stronger US support for Israel.

Trump’s balancing act between these factions underscores the broader ideological struggle within his movement. Concurrently, Iran’s potential retaliation against US assets could escalate tensions further, making Trump’s decision even more consequential. His handling of the crisis may shape his foreign policy legacy and influence his political future as he navigates the competing demands of his base.

Trump’s response could define his presidency, forcing him to choose between supporting Israel or maintaining his isolationist, MAGA stance.

If You Read One More Thing: Egypt’s Crackdown on Gaza March

At Dropsite, Ahmed Dahaby reported on Egyptian authorities’ crackdown on the Global March to Gaza, organized to protest Israel’s blockade and deliver humanitarian aid. Egyptian authorities have detained and deported activists attempting to reach Egypt’s border with Rafah.

• The planned march drew thousands from around the world. Security forces reportedly confiscated passports, blocked roads, and used force against demonstrators. Some activists, including politicians and diplomats, were arrested upon arrival in Cairo.

• Protesters have urged embassies to intervene as tensions rise over humanitarian access to the besieged Gaza Strip and regional stability.

• Organizers insist the march will proceed. The crackdown underscores broader concerns about Egypt’s suppression of dissent and its geopolitical balancing act. The march remains a focal point for international solidarity with Palestinians.

Spouses Not Safe from ICE

At Mother Jones, Sonner Kehrt reported on US Army Sergeant Ayssac Correa and his wife, Shirly Guardado. ICE agents detained Guardado outside her Houston workplace in March, citing a prior removal order from 2014.

• Guardado had entered the US as a teenager and later married Correa. The couple hoped for protection under a military parole program as Guardado sought permanent residency.

• Despite their efforts, she was deported to Honduras on May 30 — her 28th birthday — leaving behind their young son. Correa, devastated, has requested a transfer to Soto Cano Air Base in Honduras to reunite his family.

• The case highlights the precarious status of undocumented military spouses, as legal pathways remain uncertain despite service members’ contributions to the country.

Deep Dive: Global Nuclear Arms Race Heats Up

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its annual Yearbook for 2025, detailing global military expenditure, arms transfers, nuclear developments, and emerging security concerns. The report paints a picture of rising geopolitical tensions, increased military investments, and fading prospects for nuclear disarmament.

The report underscores a concerning reversal in nuclear arms trends. SIPRI confirmed that Russia, the US, and China are actively expanding their nuclear arsenals, a departure from decades of disarmament efforts. “Overall,” the report said, “the number of nuclear warheads in the world continues to decline, due to the USA and Russia dismantling retired warheads.” But the report warned the deployment of new warheads may soon outpace the dismantling of old.

Russia has suspended participation in key arms-control treaties, while China has ramped up its production of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The US maintains approximately 5,177 nuclear warheads, with a significant portion in high operational alert. the US and other nuclear-armed states shifting toward expansion and modernization rather than disarmament, the report said.

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Beyond nuclear stockpiles, worldwide military spending surpassed $2.7 trillion In 2024, marking the 10th consecutive year of growth. The United States, China, and Russia remain the top spenders, driving modernization efforts in conventional and strategic forces. The US continues funding advanced missile defense systems and next-generation military technology, while China expands its naval and space-based capabilities.

Europe has seen a sharp increase in defense budgets, largely in response to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. NATO allies have rushed to bolster their military readiness, with countries like Germany and Poland allocating record sums for equipment purchases.

Meanwhile, Middle Eastern nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel, continue heavy investments in air defense and cyber warfare capabilities. The report notes India and Pakistan also escalating military expenditures amid regional tensions.

Global arms transfers have remained high, with American, Russian, and Chinese defense contractors dominating the market. SIPRI’s analysis indicated a rise in transactions involving drones, cyber weapons, and autonomous military systems, marking a shift toward AI-driven warfare.

“Developments in 2024 again confirmed the high-profile role of missiles and armed uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs),” or drones, “in modern security and military strategies,” the report said. “Russia continued to use conventionally armed ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and one-way attack UAVs in large numbers against Ukrainian forces, critical infrastructure and civilians in 2024.”

Private tech firms, particularly Silicon Valley startups, are increasingly involved in military-industrial projects. Companies specializing in AI-guided missile systems and autonomous surveillance tools have secured multi-billion-dollar contracts from Western defense ministries.

The report warned that while these innovations enhance battlefield effectiveness, the lack of regulatory oversight on AI weapons systems could pose unforeseen risks.

Beyond conventional warfare, SIPRI highlighted SS cyber threats, AI-driven combat, and space militarization as growing concerns. Cyber operations targeting military infrastructure are becoming more frequent, with state-backed actors refining offensive capabilities.

“The trend has been particularly pronounced in high-technology sectors, including those covering uncrewed aerial vehicles, electronic warfare and cyber capabilities powered by artificial intelligence. This reflects the Western arms industry’s shift towards advanced technologies in response to the requirements of modern warfare and military priorities,” the report said.

The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 warned that global security is at a crossroads, with military spending, nuclear expansion, and emerging warfare technologies shifting the balance of power. While diplomatic efforts persist, the report suggests the world is entering an era of strategic competition rather than cooperation.

Show Us the Receipts

At Inkstick, Marc Martorell Junyent covered German Chancellor Friedrich Merz deploying 14,000 police officers and turning away asylum seekers, except for children and vulnerable individuals, in a renewed immigration crackdown. A Berlin court recently ruled that rejecting asylum seekers at the border is unlawful, challenging Merz’s policy. The decision complicates Germany’s approach to migration, as neighboring countries voice concerns over increased border checks and traffic disruptions. Despite legal setbacks, officials insist on continuing strict enforcement.

The latest edition of the Adults in a Room series at Inkstick discussed Trump’s tariff obsession. Trump’s tariff policies have reshaped global trade, targeting both allies and adversaries. His administration argues that tariffs force foreign companies to pay more for access to US markets. But the policy has escalated tensions with China and disrupted supply chains. Analysts warn that the tariffs could have long-term consequences for US competitiveness and global economic stability

At The World, Levi Bridges reported on a growing number of Moscow residents that are resisting the Russian Orthodox Church’s rapid expansion, particularly in city parks. The church has built hundreds of new places of worship across Russia, but some Muscovites argue that green spaces should remain untouched. Afghan Square, a park named after Soviet veterans, became a flashpoint when locals halted bulldozers set to construct a new church. Critics say the church’s influence has surged. Church officials insist the projects serve communities.

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Inkstick is calling on reporters and writers who may have ideas that align with our editorial mandate to submit pitches. Our nonprofit newsroom focuses on the human impact of global security, the defense industry, and war. We’re especially interested in reported features out of the United States. Email editors Patrick Strickland and Allyn Gaestel at pstrickland (at) inkstickmedia (dot) com and agaestel (at) inkstickmedia (dot) com.

Critical State is written by Inkstick Media in collaboration with The World.

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Critical State is made possible in part by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.