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It’s Tuesday, the traditional day for elections and for our pause-and-consider newsletter on politics and policy. We think of it as a mini-magazine in your inbox.

3 BIGGEST WAYS THE SENATE IS CHANGING TRUMP’S ‘BIG BILL’
By Lisa Desjardins, @LisaDNews ([link removed])
Correspondent

Some topics in Washington can be overwhelming to comprehend; some can be exhausting. President Donald Trump’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (let’s say “OBBBA”) could flirt with both.

But let’s risk the overload.

This is the president’s signature agenda item in Congress. Even more importantly, it will affect the daily lives of tens of millions of Americans. It is a massive project, with potentially the largest tax cuts, spending cuts and additions to the national debt in U.S. history.

Today we have a critical, new development to dive into – the Senate Finance Committee’s draft of how it wants to handle tax cuts and Medicaid cuts, the starting point for the chamber itself.

(For the most adventurous among us, all 549 pages can be found here. ([link removed]) )

The big picture
* Tax cuts. The Senate draft would add and lengthen some tax cuts, both for businesses and individuals.
* Green energy cuts. It would slightly delay the elimination of tax credits for solar and wind energy. The Senate draft would push back cuts for nuclear, geothermal and hydropower far more significantly.
* Medicaid cuts. It would cut Medicaid more than the House-passed bill. ([link removed])


OK, let’s go a little deeper.

[link removed]

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., looks on as Senate Republican leaders hold a news conference on Capitol Hill. Photo by Kent Nishimura/Reuters

Some tax specifics
* Individual tax rates. Senate and House Republicans are in sync on this. They would make current tax rates permanent. Without action, nearly all individuals will see a tax increase.
* Standard deductions. The Senate draft would give most adults a bigger tax deduction from the start. Without extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, the standard deduction that many individuals take to lower their tax burden is slated to decrease nearly in half at the end of the year. The Senate would not just keep but raise the deduction amounts — to $16,000 for individuals and $32,000 for married couples filing jointly.
* Child tax credit. The current tax credit of $2,000 per child is set to drop to $1,000 ([link removed].) at the end of the year. The Senate would raise the credit to $2,200 permanently. The House would raise the credit to $2,500, but only until 2028.


Green energy
* A slash to green energy funds. The House and Senate are both moving to eliminate major tax credits for wind and solar from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. ([link removed])
* But the Senate gives a slightly longer phase-out, allowing a partial tax credit for projects that start construction next year or in 2027. The House would end the credit almost as soon as the bill is enacted.

Medicaid
* Targeting the ‘provider’ tax. This is the notable cut that the Senate draft is adding. Currently, states use a loophole ([link removed]) to help them get more federal dollars for Medicaid. They tax hospitals and doctors (a “provider tax”) and spend that money back with the hospitals and doctors. Generally, the more states spend on Medicaid, the more the federal government will match.
* A cut on this tax. For states that expanded Medicaid, the Senate draft would gradually reduce the maximum amount of provider taxes, which is currently up to 6%, until it reaches a 3.5% threshold by 2031. Many Republicans like this reform, but others say it would significantly cut funds available for Medicaid. The House bill would block new provider taxes.
* Work requirements. Both the House and Senate would add an 80-hours-a-month work requirement for “able-bodied” adults, or those without disabilities, on Medicaid. The Senate makes one significant change: exempting parents of children under 14 years old from the requirement. (There currently is no federal work requirement for Medicaid. ([link removed]) )


What now?

As I type this, this Senate version is experiencing some Day 1 turbulence.

Four Republican senators have openly questioned the Medicaid cuts in the House bill — Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Jerry Moran of Kansas, Susan Collins of Maine and Josh Hawley of Missouri.

And now, West Virginia Sen. Jim Justice has told a Semafor reporter ([link removed]) that he wants the Medicaid section to return to the House version, which would ban new or increased provider taxes.

Hawley told me that the cut to the provider tax was a total surprise to him and others. Trump, too, was surprised when alerted about the change and its ramifications for rural hospitals, Hawley said.

This is not unusual. Big bills often have big problems when they are released.

But. Republicans are trying to get this historic legislation through Congress — not just the Senate — in the next two weeks.

At this point in the process, similar large bills (think the Affordable Care Act) usually take months to get through the Senate and back through the House again.

Republicans are determined to pass a version of the bill, but increasingly my sources are saying the question is “not if, but when.”
More on politics from our coverage:
* Read: What to know about the shootings of 2 Minnesota lawmakers ([link removed]) and the arrest of suspect Vance Boelter.
* One Big Question: Has the uptick in political violence become a bipartisan concern? Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Leigh Ann Caldwell of Puck News discuss. ([link removed])
* A Closer Look: How Israel’s strikes have damaged Iran’s nuclear capabilities. ([link removed])
* Perspectives: Sen. Alex Padilla’s recounts his removal ([link removed]) from Noem’s Los Angeles briefing last week in an emotional speech on the Senate floor.

THIS WEEK’S TRIVIA QUESTION
By Joshua Barajas
Senior Editor, Digital

There’s a closely watched primary in Virginia today. ([link removed])

Democrats in the Old Dominion will pick their party’s candidates for lieutenant governor and attorney general, as well as weigh in on a handful of downballot races ([link removed]) in the House of Delegates.

The primary winners will join other names already expected to appear on the statewide ballot this fall, including Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. (These two gubernatorial candidates mean Virginia is poised to elect its first woman governor come November. ([link removed]) )

Virginia joins a small number of U.S. states that hold statewide elections in a year during which there are no regularly scheduled presidential or congressional elections.

Our question: How many states, including Virginia, hold off-year elections?

Send your answers to [email protected] (mailto:[email protected]) or tweet using #PoliticsTrivia. The first correct answers will earn a shout-out next week.

Last week, we asked: Who was the last American president to deploy National Guard troops without the cooperation of state officials?

The answer: Lyndon B. Johnson. ([link removed]) In 1965, the president deployed the National Guard to protect civil rights demonstrators in Alabama against violent backlash. Johnson wrote in a proclamation ([link removed]) that he made the move after then-Gov. George Wallace, a prominent segregationist, said his state was “unable and refuses to provide safety and welfare” of the marchers.

Congratulations to our winners: Carol Rutz and Mark A. Potts!

Thank you all for reading and watching. We’ll drop into your inbox next week.
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