Forbes: Gold Goes Full Reserve Asset As Basel III Elevates It To Tier 1 Status

With the implementation of President Donald Trump's tariffs, continued global uncertainty and rising central bank gold demand, I now believe gold could go as high as $6,000 an ounce over the medium- to long-term.

As of July 1, 2025, gold will officially be classified as a Tier 1, high-quality liquid asset (HQLA) under the Basel III banking regulations. That means U.S. banks can count physical gold, at 100% of its market value, toward their core capital reserves. No longer will it be marked down by 50% as a "Tier 3" asset, as it was under the old rules.

This is a huge shift in how regulators perceive gold, and it's a long-overdue recognition of what many of us have known for decades: Gold is money. And it's the kind of money you want to own when the world is on fire.

Central Banks Know That Gold Is Real Money. Shouldn't You?

Central banks have been leading the charge for 15 years. In the first quarter of this year, central banks added 244 metric tons of gold to their official reserves, according to the World Gold Council. That's 24% above the five-year quarterly average.

This isn't a one-off anomaly. It's part of a longer-term trend that began in earnest after the 2008 financial crisis and accelerated after gold's reclassification under Basel III in 2019. According to the WGC, about 30% of central banks say they plan to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months — the highest level ever recorded in their survey.

Why are central banks buying gold? The same reason you or I would: to protect against currency debasement, geopolitical turmoil and runaway debt. As global fiat currencies get printed with increasing abandon, I believe the yellow metal remains one of the few truly finite, unprintable stores of value.

So, if the world's central banks are moving into gold, shouldn't retail investors be doing the same?

The Retail Reawakening

The answer, thankfully, is yes. According to Gallup's latest polling data, nearly a quarter of U.S. adults now say gold is the best long-term investment — a sharp increase from last year, and well above the 16% who say stocks. Only real estate ranked higher.

This could be significant. For the first time in over a decade, Americans say they're prioritizing gold over equities. Investors appear to be increasingly skeptical of the stock market's near-term trajectory, and they're returning to what has historically worked in times of uncertainty.

I've said for years that gold belongs in every diversified portfolio. Back in 2020, I told CNBC that I believed gold could hit $4,000 an ounce on looser monetary policy and central bank balance sheet expansion. Fast forward to today, and the metal is trading at $3,340.

Today I'd like to adjust my forecast.

With the implementation of President Donald Trump's tariffs, continued global uncertainty and rising central bank gold demand, I now believe gold could go as high as $6,000 an ounce over the medium- to long-term.

Be The Bank

Basel III is more than a regulatory change. I believe it's a validation. It affirms what many of us have long believed about gold's status as a monetary asset and a hedge against chaos.

If the world's most powerful financial institutions are increasing their gold exposure, and regulatory bodies are reclassifying it as a top-tier liquid asset, what's holding the average investor back?

** Information contained within this email should not be construed as Legal, Accounting, Tax or Investment advice. Patriot Gold Group is a Gold & Silver Dealer, representatives are NOT Licensed Financial Planners and do NOT give investing or tax advice.

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Here's How Much Higher Gold Prices Can Still Go — Even After Doubling The Past Two Years

Tariff-driven "sell America" trade leaves gold buyers with just one question: How much?

I interpret this as an indication that gold's bull-run has several years to go before it reaches a final top. It's hard to estimate a precise time frame for the $7,000 upside potential for gold, as point-and-figure charts don't have time as a component. The best guess is three-to-five years.

June 2, 2025

Technical charts for gold point to a multiyear rally reaching almost $7,000 an ounce.

I am reiterating my bullish view on gold. Gold staged an upside breakout through a cup-and-handle pattern at $2,100 in early 2024 and hasn't looked back. Moreover, it has staged upside relative breakouts against both the S&P 500 and a 60%-stock/40%-bond portfolio, and it has stayed above the relative breakout levels even after its recent pullback.

The technical pattern of multi-year bases and subsequent absolute and relative breakouts is highly reminiscent of the pattern experienced by gold at the start of the century, which took the yellow metal from its breakout at $500 in 2004 to significantly higher prices.

For a longer-term perspective of the upside potential in gold, a point-and-figure chart of monthly gold prices, using a 5% box size and 3-box reversal, shows a measured objective of almost $7,000.

I interpret this as an indication that gold's bull-run has several years to go before it reaches a final top. It's hard to estimate a precise time frame for the $7,000 upside potential for gold, as point-and-figure charts don't have time as a component. The best guess is three-to-five years.

Credit agency Moody's recent downgrade of U.S. debt to Aa1 from triple-A underlines a number of stress points that are rattling the bond and currency markets, as well as the loss of the dollar's "exorbitant privilege".

• Deficits are projected to grow as entitlement spending rises and revenue stays flat.
• Ongoing fiscal deficits are exacerbating a supply-demanding in Treasuries.
• The inflationary effects of the trade war could see a hawkish Fed against a dovish backdrop by other major central banks, which will reduce the relative growth potential of the U.S. economy against the rest of the world.
• Possible U.S. policy changes will see investors demand a higher premium for U.S. Treasury debt in the face of increasingly unfriendly tax treatment and rising uncertainty.

What's bearish for dollar-based assets is bullish for gold. To the sell-America trade, add rising U.S. deficits, shaky bond markets, an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve and policy uncertainty.

Gold's bull run will not end until investor psychology changes and the mom-and-pop investor piles in. Current retail demand is mainly driven by Asian investors, while U.S. and European investors are nowhere to be seen.

As well, global family office allocations to gold and precious metals is just 2%.

Market tops don't look like this.

** Information contained within this email should not be construed as Legal, Accounting, Tax or Investment advice. Patriot Gold Group is a Gold & Silver Dealer, representatives are NOT Licensed Financial Planners and do NOT give investing or tax advice.

About Patriot Gold Group CEO Jack Hanney

** Information contained within this email should not be construed as Legal, Accounting, Tax or Investment advice. Patriot Gold Group is a Gold & Silver Dealer, representatives are NOT Licensed Financial Planners and do NOT give investing or tax advice.