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Weekend Reads
In a world of diplomatic doublespeak, hypocrisy, and strategic ambiguity, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu simply said what they meant.
In The Free Press, Michael Doran explains how Israel achieved strategic surprise to dismantle Iran’s military leadership and nuclear ambitions.
Key Insights
1. Trump gave Iran a 60-day deadline for negotiations, but the Iranians didn’t believe he meant it.
Beginning around April 12, Trump gave Iran a 60-day deadline, which ended near June 11. The Israeli strike came on June 13—just after the deadline expired. In that interval, Trump repeatedly warned Iran to dismantle its nuclear weapons infrastructure or face violent consequences. In May, the American president offered Iran’s leaders two stark options for dealing with their nuclear facilities: “blow them up nicely”—meaning under international supervision—or “blow them up viciously.” The Iranians didn’t believe he meant it.
2. The Iranians thought that Netanyahu could not act alone.
Experience had taught the Iranian regime that Israel’s missile defense system, though formidable, could be overwhelmed. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei believed he could saturate Israeli defenses with a barrage of ballistic missiles. To blunt such an attack, Israel would need not only American-supplied equipment, but also the direct operational support of United States Central Command’s regional missile shield—its advanced sensors and interceptors deployed in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf states. That network was fragile. Only the US, with its regional presence and deterrent power, could prevent such a multifront escalation. The Iranians, therefore, had threatened to attack American bases directly if Israel acted. The goal was simple: Force the United States into a regional war, or at least to fear one. In doing so, Tehran hoped to turn Trump’s core strategic instinct—pulling US troops out of the Middle East—into a political liability.
3. Netanyahu read Trump better than the Iranians.
The Iranian analysis was, in nearly every respect, correct. They saw the gap between Trump and Netanyahu. They understood that Trump wanted a deal and was restraining Israel. They were right about all of it. Except for one thing: Trump meant what he said. Netanyahu took everything the Iranians understood—everything that was true—and used it to hide the two truths that mattered: Trump will not let Iran get the bomb; and Netanyahu was prepared to act boldly on that knowledge. The heart of the deception was not a lie and not even a misdirection—it was the absence of deception entirely.
Go Deeper
Rather than kinetically destroying Tehran’s defensive infrastructure, Israel cognitively bypassed it. Zineb Riboua explains how Operation Rising Lion leveraged the art of deception in a new Hudson policy memo.
The core of Trump’s Middle East policy is a willingness to leverage American power while avoiding entanglement. He moves between shows of force and diplomacy, writes Michael Doran in Tablet.
Israel possesses a clear escalation advantage, but Iran could pursue a prolonged war of attrition. In a special edition of the MENA Defense Intelligence Digest, Can Kasapoğlu analyzed Operation Rising Lion and the Israel-Iran conflict. Click here to subscribe to the newsletter.
