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** How the House Reconciliation Bill Affects Medicaid

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In addition to extending the 2017 tax cuts, the House-passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act cuts federal spending. One source of those cuts is Medicaid.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the bill would lead to 10.9 million more people being uninsured in 2034, with 7.8 million of those due to the bill’s Medicaid provisions. The bulk of the coverage losses under the bill would come from those who became eligible for Medicaid due to an expansion of the program under the Affordable Care Act — those enrollees would face new work requirements unless they qualified for an exemption.

Director Lori Robertson looked into ([link removed]) competing claims about the bill's Medicaid provisions. Republicans have said that able-bodied adults who don’t work would lose their coverage, while Democrats have said the legislation would hurt vulnerable groups. Lori found that while the bill’s main target is those able-bodied adults, health policy experts say other groups would lose coverage due to paperwork burdens and other provisions in the bill.

“The challenge here is that these work requirements also become sort of a paperwork requirement,” Jennifer Tolbert, deputy director of the Program on Medicaid and the Uninsured at the health policy research group KFF, told Lori. In order to keep their Medicaid coverage, people have to document that they’re working the required number of hours or meet the criteria for an exemption. It’s not yet known what kind of documents will be required, Tolbert said, but it’s “quite likely that there will be people … who have reported disabilities, who have other chronic conditions, and … who are caring for children or elderly parents, who may also lose coverage” because they aren’t able to provide the correct documents.

KFF estimated that overall, the bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $793 billion over 10 years, based on CBO’s analysis.

Michael Karpman, a principal research associate in the health policy division at the Urban Institute, said the think tank has found that at least 90% of the adults in the expansion population are either working, looking for work, in poor health or caregivers. So, the “vast majority” are already meeting the bill’s requirements to work or qualify for an exemption.

But, again, he said that “a lot” who should get an exemption won’t due to reporting requirements.

Democrats, meanwhile, have emphasized the financial impact of the bill on health care providers. For instance, Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado said the House bill would drive “a lot” of health care providers “out of business.”

Lori wrote that the bill has financial implications for some providers, such as community health centers and hospitals, some of which are already facing financial difficulty. But it’s unknown how many would close their doors as a result.

Tolbert said that “it will be hard to say that any hospital closures or other providers going out of business … is directly related to these Medicaid changes.”

The Senate is considering the bill now.

For more, read the full story: “Assessing Medicaid Coverage Losses Under House Reconciliation Bill ([link removed])
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HOW WE KNOW
The FBI’s crime statistics are considered the gold standard for crime statistics. But to check a claim like the one President Donald Trump made this week -- that the nation’s murder rate has “plummeted by 28%” since he took office -- we need more recent data than the latest FBI reports provide. We cited several groups that aggregate crime data from a sampling of law enforcement agencies to approximate homicide trends. One of them was AH Datalytics’ Real-Time Crime Index ([link removed]) . We also look to data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association ([link removed]) and the Council on Criminal Justice ([link removed]) . Read more: "Trump Now Citing Murder Stats He Used to Dismiss as ‘Fake News ([link removed]) .’"
FEATURED FACTS
About 42 million people receive Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, according to the latest preliminary monthly figures. The SNAP program was formerly known as food stamps. The House reconciliation bill would reduce federal SNAP funding by about $286 billion over a 10-year period, according to the CBO. The bill expands work requirements and shifts some costs to the states. We wrote about the bill's changes to SNAP when fact-checking claims made by House Speaker Mike Johnson and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
Read more: "Walz and Johnson Make Misleading Claims About Bill’s Impact on SNAP ([link removed]) ."
REPLY ALL

Reader: Is there an ad in Craigslist to hire people to riot in L.A.?

Assignment Editor Alan Jaffe responds: No, there isn't. We wrote ([link removed]) about this claim this week.

Some social media posts spread an unfounded claim that people protesting immigration raids in Southern California and elsewhere are being paid for their participation. The posts shared screenshots of a phony Craigslist ad that appeared for a few days in Los Angeles and Austin as evidence.

“Looking for the toughest badasses in the city (los angeles),” the ad said. “SEEKING EXTREMELY TOUGH, BRAVE MEN FOR NEW CREW IM BUILDING,” it read, but never mentioned participation in protests — or any specific activity at all.

The bogus ad was a prank placed by a pair of podcasters, Joey LaFleur and Logan Quiroz, the Associated Press reported ([link removed]) on June 10. The ad was intended as part of their show and had nothing to do with the protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement.


** Wrapping Up
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Here's what else we've got for you this week:
* Viral Graphic Makes False, Questionable Claims About House Reconciliation Bill ([link removed])
A viral graphic warns that if the House-passed reconciliation bill becomes law, “we won’t have another election.” But there is no evidence to support that or some of the graphic’s underlying claims about “what’s coming” if the Senate also approves the legislation without any changes. For other claims, it’s unclear what they are based on.

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