Policy Currents | The newsletter for policy people
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** June 12, 2025
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U.S.-China Trade Relations: Beijing’s Self-Reliance Strategy
The United States and China reportedly reached a framework agreement on trade this week. The exact contours are unclear, and the overall trajectory of U.S.-China trade relations remains shrouded in uncertainty. That said, the U.S.-China trade war has revealed several lessons about China's vulnerabilities and power, say RAND's Gerard DiPippo and Benjamin Lenain.
The trade war has been "as much a test of China's economic resilience as it is of U.S. pressure." Although Washington retains meaningful leverage over Beijing, its influence is diminishing. That's because China is reducing dependence on U.S. markets and technology: It is focusing on manufacturing goods for China's internal market and deepening its control over critical global supply chains, including those for smartphones and batteries.
If tensions re-escalate, then China could endure the shock, but it would be doing so at a fragile moment, according to DiPippo and Lenain. This highlights "the limits of U.S. leverage and the stakes of Beijing's self-reliance strategy." Whatever happens with future negotiations, China's approach is unlikely to change.
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Preventing and Treating Alcohol Use Disorder Among Veterans
Veterans have an increased risk of adverse alcohol use, and excessive drinking is a leading factor in preventable deaths among veterans. A new RAND paper explores this issue, providing an overview of veterans' alcohol use, its consequences, and recommendations for addressing the problem. The authors highlight important actions, such as focusing on prevention efforts, providing treatment for PTSD and other co-occurring mental health disorders, and improving access to alcohol use disorder medication.
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Preparing for the Quantum Threat to Cryptography
Quantum computers can perform certain calculations far more quickly than even the best supercomputers. These include the complex math problems underlying encrypted information online. According to RAND's Edward Parker, "it's hard to overstate the consequences that might occur if a bad actor acquired the ability to use a quantum computer to break today's cryptography." Even though quantum computers are not yet capable of such a feat, the United States and its allies should act "as soon as possible" to secure their communications systems, Parker says.
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** RAND Recommends
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- In the Los Angeles Times, RAND's Lisa Abraham discusses burnout among people working in the homeless response sector.
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- RAND's William Courtney considers Poland's nuclear future. Might Poland seek its own nuclear weapons? Could it become a host for NATO weapons? Or will it turn to France and the United Kingdom for protection?
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- The Kurdistan Workers' Party, known as the PKK, announced that it would disarm and disband. According to RAND Europe's Rebecca Lucas, the PKK's dissolution could be a key step toward sustainable peace in Turkey, offering "important lessons for any country facing a seemingly intractable insurgency."
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** Events
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Policies to Support Veterans' Needs at the State and Local Level
Wednesday June 18, 2025 (Online)
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** Policy Minded, RAND's Flagship Podcast
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On Policy Minded, we pick the brains of the world's top policy experts. In each episode, RAND researchers join us for conversations that go beyond the headlines--bringing you insights you can't find anywhere else.
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