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NOTE FROM CLIFF: Sorry we’re getting this one out a bit late. We had some technical issues today. Thanks for understanding!
by Brett Di Resta
After five long months of navel-gazing, Democrats are finally looking up and realizing that they need to expand the playing field in order to retake the U.S. Senate. Believe it or not, some guy named John Thune is currently the Majority Leader (He’s the South Dakota Republican who hasn’t murdered a dog).
Democrats need to win 4 seats, while holding all of their own, to return Thune to the back benches. Or before Republicans in the chamber decide to give Moscow Mitch McConnell one last chance by hooking him up Evil-Emperor-style to a machine that gives him a transfusion. Not of blood, but additional Exxon donations.
To rid themselves of McConnell (retiring) and Thune, there are a few obvious places to start for Democrats. First and foremost, they need to finally send Susan “I’m sure Trump learned his lesson this time” Collins packing.
Democrats will also be targeting the North Carolina seat that Senator Thom Tillis holds. For both races, the hope is that former popular Democratic Governors in each state will challenge the two (That’s Janet Mills in Maine and Roy Cooper in North Carolina).
Beyond those two races, the general consensus is that the pickings are slim for Democrats in upcoming Senate races. Not that the general consensus isn’t sometimes worth what you can find in barns across Iowa farms, but it’s a good barometer.
And, recent events, combined with the electoral history of Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, should be enough to change that conventional wisdom. And see Democrats make winning this seat as a priority.
Ernst rocketed into the public consciousness with an ad in which she bragged about her ability to castrate hogs. Yes, I’m not kidding. While I didn’t see the appeal, many Iowans did, and she defeated Democratic Congressman Bruce Braley in 2014.
That year was catastrophic for Democrats, as Republicans won 9 Senate seats to retake the Senate, and a lot more than that in various races across the country. In this big Republican year, Ernst defeated Braley 52-43, a comfortable win but not an overwhelming defeat considering the tidal wave Republicans rode.
You could call her win a bit truncated. Compared to the victories of other Republicans.
Flash forward 6 years, and Ernst was up for re-election against a relatively unknown opponent, Theresa Greenfield. Ernst won the seat 51.8% to 45.2%. At the same time, Trump [ [link removed] ] carried Iowa by a wider margin during his unsuccessful reelection campaign, 53-45.
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Again, Ernst won by a decent margin, but some of her margin was lopped off, and she wont by less than she had in 2014—and with a relatively low percentage. Despite running in a red wave in 2014 and with Trump on the ticket in 2020, Ernst could never top 52% of the vote. The sign of a strong candidate this is not.
While it is too early to predict the make-up of the electorate in 26, it will almost certainly be bluer than in 2014, and better with Trump not on the ballot. That should have already put the seat on the radar of Democrats trying to win back the Senate by carving out new territory.
But what should really motivate Democrats is the absolute slicing of Ernt’s image the last year has been [ [link removed] ]. In December, Ernst took considerable flak from the Right for her initial reluctance to support Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth.
Yet, Ernst quickly folded, neutered by talk of a GOP primary. Just as undoubtedly, some MAGA mouth-breathers won’t forgive her initial reluctance to support the keg-stand in human form who wanted to run the Pentagon, while her eventual capitulation angered women and veterans, among many others.
Then, in March, Ernst faced scrutiny for an alleged romance with a General who lobbied her office. The General saw his ranking diced, as he was ended up being demoted for his actions.
Despite the reports, Ernst denied the affair, and the issue faded quickly (and, surely, the General must have been demoted because there was nothing there, right?).
If those incidents created the snippet of a challenge, Ernst’s recent statement caused a full shearing. During a town hall with constituents, a member of the audience shouted that GOP Medicaid cuts would cause people to die [ [link removed] ], Ernst callously responded, “We all are going to die.”
In true MAGA fashion, Ernst sought to double down on Her Stupid rather than apologize. She released a bizarre, sarcastic video defending the morbid comments she’d made. Some might call it a bit freaky (can someone ask Madison Cawthorn if there was blotter acid those parties he talked about?).
She even filmed it in a graveyard! (All testes of the buried remained intact, as far as we know). Her handling of the issue, which shouldn’t be surprising, has been widely criticized, and it has only emboldened a challenger.
Make no mistake, any Democrat taking on this challenge will be a underdog to win this seat. Ernst is an incumbent, and the GOP will put up a massive fight with a whole lotta spending to hold onto it.
But any dream of Democrats retaking the Senate requires Ernst to take an electoral whacking, if you will. And a well-funded Democrat running an aggressive, smart campaign with, um…balls, will have a solid chance.
If all goes right, ole Joni may just end up on the chopping block and Democrats may have the majority we need to enable another key institution to defend democracy.
Brett Di Resta is President of The Maccabee Group, a political research and communications firm, and an adjunct professor at George Washington University School of Political Management, as well as the University of San Francisco.
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