June 10, 2025 Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border have fallen to lows not seen since the 1960s. But can this trend continue? A new Migration Policy Institute (MPI) short read examines the dramatic decline in border encounters and the policies, by the Biden and Trump administrations, that led to this reversal. Border encounters plummeted from an all-time monthly record of nearly 250,000 in December 2023 to fewer than 8,400 in April 2025. “With these near-historic lows, the Trump administration can rightfully claim that it has secured the border at this time, building on declines that began in early 2024 and accelerated in the second half of the year,” analyst Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh writes. “The longer-term test, however, is whether this success can be sustained through the administration’s new show of force alone, without the less visible migration management ingredients that led to the quieting border the administration inherited.” The short read explores the role of stepped-up Mexican immigration enforcement that began in January 2024, the Biden administration’s mid-year implementation of a carrot-and-sticks approach to disincentivize irregular crossings and incentivize arriving a port of entry, and the Trump administration’s new actions at the border and in the U.S. interior. It also looks to the experience of the first Trump term, when actions such as family separation and the "Remain in Mexico" program led to brief decreases in encounters but not long-lasting impacts, as border encounter data show. “Though encounter levels at the U.S.-Mexico border are near historic lows, history shows that migration never fully stops,” Putzel-Kavanaugh writes. “Rather, it adjusts to changing environments.” Read the analysis here: www.migrationpolicy.org/news/low-migrant-encounters-border-trump. | 
