Integrated failures: coalition, Gaza, Iran

Q. What is the most obvious factor linking Netanyahu’s failures on all three fronts: the coalition, the Gaza war, and Iran’s nuclear ambitions?

A. The most obvious factor is war.

The ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties that support Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition also support the ongoing Gaza war effort--but refuse to participate in it as soldiers. The right-messianic-settler parties support the war and covet the Gaza territory; if the war ends, they will leave the coalition.

In other words, if the war in Gaza ends, Netanyahu’s coalition loses its right-messianic support and the government falls. On the other hand, as long as the war continues, the issues of conscription of the Haredi sector and the financial penalties that collective draft-dodging incurs for the Haredi community remain volatile and unsolvable. This virtually guarantees that the war will eventually catalyze Haredi departure from the coalition, bring it down, and usher in new elections.

1. Bills & Resolutions

Responding to & Exploiting Heinous Boulder Attack

(USING BOULDER ATTACK TO TARGET VISA OVERSTAYS) S. 1937 [bill text]: Introduced 6/3/25 by Banks (R-IN), “A bill to amend section 275 of the Immigration and Nationality Act to expand penalties for illegal entry and unlawful presence.” Referred to the Committee on the Judiciary. Also see: press release – Senator Banks Introduces Bill to Make Visa Overstays a Crime, Increase Penalties [“The Boulder terrorist and 9/11 hijackers didn’t sneak in, they overstayed visas. That’s just as serious and just as dangerous. My bill cracks down on visa overstays with criminal penalties to stop threats before they happen.”]

(TARGETING THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD) S. XXXX: Introduced 6/X/XX by Cruz (R-TX) and X Republican cosponsors, “A bill to require the Secretary of State to submit a report to Congress on the designation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a foreign terrorist organization, and for other purposes” aka the “Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist Designation Act.” Referred to the Committee on Foreign Relations. Cruz previously pursued this same effort in 2020 (S. 4939), 2017 (S. 68) and in 2015 (S. 2230). Also see:

Cruz (R-TX) X-post 6/3/25: “In the coming days, I will be circulating and re-introducing a modernized version of the Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist Designation Act, which I have been pushing for my entire Senate career. As I told the Free Beacon, the Muslim Brotherhood used the Biden administration to consolidate and deepen their influence, but the Trump administration and Republican Congress can no longer afford to avoid the threat they pose to Americans and American national security.”
Media: Congress Nears Move To Designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization (Free Beacon 6/3/25); House GOP unveils resolution to condemn Boulder terror attack, call for mass deportation of overstayed visas – The resolution says there is an ‘alarming rise’ in antisemitism in the US (Fox News 6/4/25); Lawmakers push to designate Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group after Boulder attack — Sen. Ted Cruz is planning to reintroduce an updated version of legislation that he first sponsored nearly a decade ago (Jewish Insider 6/4/25); Cruz to reintroduce bill labeling Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist group after Boulder attack (The Hill 6/4/25); US Congress Pushes to Designate Muslim Brotherhood as a Terrorist Organization (Algemeiner 6/4/25); Pushes in both houses of Congress to designate Muslim Brotherhood as terror group [“The Hamas-linked group ‘used the Biden administration to consolidate and deepen their influence,’ wrote Sen. Ted Cruz.“] (Jewish News Syndicate 6/4/25)

(TARGETING ANTISEMITISM, PRETTY CLEARLY DEFINED TO INCLUDE PROTEST OF ISRAEL/ZIONISM) HR 3691: Introduced 6/3/25 by Miller-Meeks (R-IA) and 2 cosponsors (bipartisan), “To establish the Commission to Study Acts of Antisemitism in the United States.” Referred to the House Committee on the Judiciary. Also see: press release (with quotes conflating antisemitism with protest of Israel’s actions in Gaza) – Miller-Meeks, Colleagues Launch Bill to Fight Antisemitic Hate Across the U.S. [includes link to bill text but that link is broken]; EXCLUSIVE: Iowa Lawmaker Set to Offer Bill to Establish Antisemitism Study Commission (Daily Signal 6/2/25)

(CONDEMNING BOULDER ATTACK) S. Res. 263: Introduced 6/4/25 by Bennett (R-CO) and Hickenlooper (D-CO), “A resolution condemning the violent antisemitic attack in Boulder, Colorado, and expressing support for the survivors and their families.” Referred to the Committee on the Judiciary. Also see: press release – On Senate Floor, Bennet Condemns Antisemitic Attack in Boulder, Colorado [“…If there was any doubt that this was an antisemitic hate crime and an act of terror, the attacker has told investigators that–and let me quote–‘he wanted to kill all Zionist people and wished they were all dead…He did not have some intellectual point that he was trying to make about Israel’s policies. He was not trying to improve the lives of Palestinians. He simply wanted to kill Jews [note: this framing takes as a given that the term “Zionists” has nothing to do with the political ideology of Zionism and support for Israel, but rather can only mean “Jews”]…these antisemites use events in the Middle East as an excuse to express their latent antisemitism, their medieval hatred of Jews–who they blame for some swath of society’s ills.”

(CONDEMNING ANTISEMITIC VIOLENCE) H. Res. 481: Introduced 6/5/25 by Van Drew (R-NJ) and 53 bipartisan cosponsors, “Condemning the rise in ideologically motivated attacks on Jewish individuals in the United States, including the recent violent assault in Boulder, Colorado, and reaffirming the House of Representatives commitment to combating antisemitism and politically motivated violence.” Referred to the House Committee on the Judiciary.

(HONOR LIFE OF SARAH MILGRIM) S. Res. xxx [resolution text]: Not in political record yet; also see press release 6/5/25 – Sens. Moran, Marshall Introduce Resolution to Honor the Life of Sarah Milgrim