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AEI's weekly digest of top commentary and scholarship on the issues that matter most

Responding to Growing Threats

Prioritizing the Nation’s Defense

June 7, 2025

Although President Donald Trump has announced a $1 trillion topline for his defense budget, so far the administration is not addressing the chronic underfunding of the military’s long-term needs. In a new working paper, defense experts Elaine McCusker, Todd Harrison, and John G. Ferrari assess Congress’s and the Pentagon’s approaches to the 2026 defense budget and explain what both need to do to properly respond to growing threats from Iran, Russia, and China.

 

 

America’s vulnerability to China is not just military; major US industries, especially in electronics, remain dependent on Chinese manufacturing. In a new AEI report, Chris Miller and Vishnu Venugopalan analyze Apple’s supply chain as a case study in the limits and consequences of US attempts to decouple strategic industries.

 

Right now, defense policy is taking a back seat to negotiations over the reconciliation bill between the House, Senate, and White House. James C. Capretta compares various expert estimates of the House bill’s cost to reveal its full impact on the debt and deficit.

 

Among its provisions, the bill continues to provide tax incentives for long-term investment in economically disadvantaged communities, known as opportunity zones. Writing in The New York Times, Center on Opportunity and Social Mobility Deputy Director Kevin Corinth and Naomi E. Feldman explain why, if Congress wants to properly target communities in need, it cannot simply renew this provision as is. 

 

The bill also increases the taxation of charitable foundations’ endowments from its current 1.39 percent to up to 10 percent for the largest foundations. Daniel Stid highlights the dangers, for civil society, philanthropy, and supporters of this bill, of pursuing tax policy nakedly designed to punish political opponents.


Why Emerging Markets Weathered Federal Reserve Tightening So Well

The steep rise in US interest rates that started in 2022 led many observers to anticipate severe difficulties for emerging market economies similar to disruptions in the 1980s and 1990s, but most weathered the increase relatively well. In a new AEI Economic Policy working paper, Steven B. Kamin and Aatman Vakil investigate their financial resilience by quantifying the effects of US economic conditions on emerging market economies. They do so by estimating monthly regressions of dollar credit spreads, which are an indicator of financial distress, over the period 2006–24 on measures of US monetary policy as well as US financial conditions. Ultimately, they find that US monetary policy is no longer linked to these spreads as it was in the 1980s and 1990s, in part due to improved economic policies in these countries.

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QUOTE OF THE WEEK

The United States can ill afford to raise its foreign creditors’ concerns. Foreigners not only hold $9 trillion of the $29 trillion of US Treasury bonds outstanding. They also are called upon to finance a sizable part of the government’s budget deficit. That is presently running at around $1.9 trillion or 6.25 percent of GDP, and it is on a rising trajectory. This makes it all the more concerning that the Trump administration seems to be going out of its way to undermine foreign investor confidence.

Desmond Lachman