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Daily News Brief

June 3, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering the latest peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, as well as...

  • South Korea’s presidential election
  • Shifting policies on foreign troops in Syria
  • The resignation of Mongolia’s leader
 
 

Top of the Agenda

At brief peace talks in Istanbul yesterday, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a prisoner swap and exchanged memos that revealed a large gap in their demands for ending the war. Turkish officials mediated the low-level talks. The two parties each agreed to return heavily wounded and ill prisoners as well as those under the age of twenty-five. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said he planned to organize a summit that included the presidents of Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he and Erdoğan discussed a late June or early July date for the meeting.

 

The latest. 

 

Ukraine’s proposals included: 

  • A ceasefire on land, in the air, and at sea, an unnamed Ukrainian official told the New York Times 
  • Security guarantees that would block Russia from “repeating its aggression,” a continued path toward joining the European Union, future NATO membership if there is consensus in the alliance, and the return of abducted children and civilian captives held by Russia, according to a document seen by the Kyiv Independent
  • Reparations, no restriction on its military strength, and no international recognition of parts of its land taken by Russia, according to Reuters.

In its position paper, published by Russian media, Russia called for: 

  • International recognition of four Ukrainian regions it claims as its own, and a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from those areas
  • A reduction in the size of Ukraine’s military
  • A designation of Russian as the official language of Ukraine
  • A formal commitment to Ukrainian neutrality.

 

The context. Both sides have escalated military attacks as talks play out. Russia attacked Ukraine with a record 472 drones in one night over the weekend, Ukraine’s military said. Meanwhile Ukraine used low-cost drones hidden inside Russia to attack Russian airfields, damaging several bombers that Russia would have used in the event of nuclear war. Kyiv did not notify Washington about the operation ahead of time, an unnamed U.S. official told Axios. Following yesterday’s talks, Zelenskyy said Ukraine would continue its attacks unless Russia stops its own offensive. 

 
 

“[Ukraine’s weekend] drone strike, though raising the strategic stakes and no doubt provoking Russian retaliation, is exactly the kind of high-pressure tactic needed to persuade Putin to negotiate in earnest, just as the two sides are set to sit down again in Turkey. Through their actions, the Ukrainians are signaling they refuse to be defeated—and that they have the resources to keep fighting.”

—CFR expert Max Boot in the Washington Post

 

How Russia’s and Ukraine’s Militaries Stack Up

 Sergey Pivovarov/Reuters Russia would likely be able to reconstitute its forces at a more rapid pace than Ukraine. Russia’s aggressive recruitment efforts have enabled it to continue growing its forces despite heavy casualties, though recent analysis suggests the Kremlin is also increasingly concerned with retaining its forces during a ceasefire. That has led other experts to argue that with Russia’s current upper hand, a ceasefire would allow Moscow to maximize its current

Sergey Pivovarov/Reuters

Russia holds a sizable advantage over Ukraine on troop numbers and weaponry yet the two sides have fought to a standstill, CFR’s Molly Carlough and Benjamin Harris write in this In Brief.

 
 

Across the Globe

South Korea’s vote. South Korean opposition Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-Myung is leading the vote count after today’s presidential election, according to an exit poll. Turnout was high and may have surpassed a previous record, national broadcaster KBS reported. The vote followed six months of political crisis triggered by former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of marital law last December and his subsequent impeachment.  

 

Security forces shift in Syria. Hundreds of U.S. troops withdrew from Syria in recent weeks as part of a planned drawdown, an unnamed U.S. official told Al Arabiya. Separately, the U.S. special envoy to Syria said that the Trump administration now approved the integration of foreign fighters into the Syrian military, which Washington had opposed until at least early May. Syria’s interim government reportedly argued that integrating them into the army is less of a risk than leaving them to potentially join nonstate militant groups. Many of the foreign fighters in question are Uyghur Muslims from China or neighboring countries. 

 

Charges for Boulder attack. Federal authorities on Monday charged Mohamed Sabry Soliman, the suspect in Sunday’s Boulder, Colorado attack on a march for Israeli hostages, with a hate crime. He is facing sixteen counts of attempted murder and other charges, officials said. Soliman, an Egyptian national, had entered the United States on a tourist visa in 2022 and applied for asylum, the Department of Homeland Security said. 

 

Reported details of Iran talks. The U.S. proposal for a nuclear deal shared with Iran over the weekend would allow Iran to keep enriching uranium at limited amounts, two unnamed sources told Axios. The White House press secretary did not deny the details of the proposal described to Axios, although Trump posted on social media hours later that Washington would not allow enrichment. The reported proposal would require Iran to halt new research and development on centrifuges and temporarily make its underground enrichment facilities “non-operational”; U.S. sanctions relief would be contingent on Iran demonstrating “commitment.”

 

Dutch government collapse. Far-right politician Geert Wilders said he would withdraw his party from the Dutch ruling coalition over its lack of support for their proposal to restrict asylum, a move that could topple the current government and lead to new elections. The government has been in power for less than a year. A snap election could delay a decision on increasing military spending in line with new NATO targets.

 

UK defense overhaul. The United Kingdom (UK) will build up to twelve new attack submarines and at least six new munitions plants as part of a military strategy overhaul, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced yesterday. The government has already committed to upping military spending from 2.3 to 2.5 percent of national income by 2027. Separately, the European Commission approved a partnership yesterday between Italian, Japanese, and UK firms to produce a next-generation fighter jet.

 

Mongolian PM ousted. Prime Minister Oyun-Erdene Luvsannamsrai resigned today after losing a parliamentary confidence vote in the wake of anti-government protests. The demonstrations were sparked by social media posts showing the prime minister’s son displaying luxury goods. Protesters said the country’s mineral wealth had been pocketed by the elite while many Mongolians experienced a cost-of-living crisis. Oyun-Erdene said today that he had been “paying insufficient attention to social and internal political matters.”


EU restrictions on Chinese goods. European Union (EU) countries voted yesterday to limit Chinese medical device makers’ access to their government procurement contracts, unnamed sources told multiple news outlets. The measures follow a 2022 EU law that aims for reciprocity in public procurement contracts. Beijing has pushed local procurement in recent years in the sector. A European Commission spokesperson did not immediately comment.

 
 

South Korea’s Democracy Remains Vulnerable

People watch a live news report as they wait for the Constitutional Court ruling on President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment, near the Constitutional Court in Seoul

Kim Hong-ji/Reuters

The country’s recent presidential impeachment and removal saw democracy prevail, but also show three areas of fragility, the Center for a New American Security’s Duyeon Kim writes for Asia Unbound.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, Australia’s prime minister and deputy defense minister visits Sri Lanka.
  • Tomorrow, top UK and U.S. trade officials meet on the sidelines of a G7 ministerial meeting in Paris.
  • Tomorrow, higher U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum are due to take effect. 
 
 

The Risks of an Interim Deal With Iran

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian visits Iran’s nuclear achievements exhibition in Tehran.

Iranian Presidency/WANA/Reuters

The history of arms control agreements shows that those who enter—and celebrate—them do not want to call out cheating, CFR expert Elliott Abrams writes for Pressure Points.

 
 

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