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Daily News Brief

May 30, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, as well as...

  • A U.S. court’s preservation of sweeping tariffs
  • Portugal’s prime minister rebounds
  • U.S. participation in a Syria energy deal
 
 

Top of the Agenda

Russian forces have accelerated their territorial advances in Ukraine in recent weeks, even in the midst of U.S.-brokered peace negotiations. Russia has captured an average of 5.5 square miles per day this month—more than double the rate in April, according to a Ukrainian war monitor with links to the country’s military. Ahead of potential talks on Monday, the acting U.S. envoy to the UN Security Council said that Moscow should accept a proposal for a thirty-day ceasefire and that “the deal on offer now is Russia’s best possible outcome.”

 

The latest on the battlefield.

 

  • In addition to ground advances, Russia in recent days has been carrying out aerial bombardments on a scale not seen since the start of the war. Russia substantially increased its drone production through a deal with Iran to produce Iranian-designed drones within Russia, according to a new report by Washington-based research group C4ADS.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this week that Russia was amassing some fifty thousand troops near the northeastern region of Sumy in apparent preparation for an offensive.
  • Germany pledged new military support this week that will enable Ukraine to produce more long-range missiles in its own territory.

 

The latest on negotiations.

 

  • Russia suggested Monday’s prospective talks in Istanbul. Ukraine agreed but said it wanted to see Russia share a position paper ahead of time. A Kremlin spokesperson said today that such a document could not be made public.
  • Three unnamed Russian sources told Reuters that Russian President Vladimir Putin sought a written pledge that NATO would not expand eastward, as well as sanctions removal, as part of conditions for ending the war. The Kremlin did not comment.
 
 

“Trump should also keep in mind that abandoning Ukraine would not bring peace...Russia would most likely view U.S. separation from Ukraine as an opportunity to press or even escalate militarily itself. Far from bringing peace, a U.S. military cutoff of Ukraine could actually exacerbate the fighting.”

—CFR President Emeritus Richard Haass on Substack

 

How to Gauge the Challenge to Trump’s Tariffs

A worker carries curtains at a textile company in Shaoxing, China, May 9, 2025.

Greg Baker/AFP/Getty Images

A court ruling this week could pose a major threat to President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. While this may derail some of his trade plans, it doesn’t mean the end of U.S. trade wars, CFR fellow Inu Manak writes in this Expert Brief.

 
 

Across the Globe

Tariff ruling stayed. A U.S. federal appeals court paused Wednesday’s trade court ruling against many of Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Trump administration is pursuing a formal appeal, saying in a legal filing that blocking the tariffs would hurt efforts to address the country’s trade deficit. Separately, an additional federal court ruled yesterday that Trump’s use of the IEEPA for tariffs was improper.

 

Energy deal in Syria. Syria’s interim government signed a roughly $7 billion preliminary deal with a group of U.S., Turkish, and Qatari companies to build three gas-fired power plants and a solar plant. The firms aim to complete construction within three years for the gas plants and less than two years for the solar plant. The projects are expected to cover more than 50 percent of Syria’s electricity needs once finished.

 

Media crackdown in Kyrgyzstan. Authorities arrested eight current and former workers at media outlet Kloop on Wednesday and Thursday, their lawyers said. The independent outlet is known for anti-corruption reporting. Those detained face charges of calling for mass unrest and disobeying government officials, which can carry prison sentences of up to ten years. Kloop’s co-founder called the accusations fabricated. Some of the detainees were released after questioning. 

 

Portugal’s PM. Center-right politician Luís Montenegro will serve a second term as prime minister following a recent snap election, Portugal’s president said. Montenegro’s parliamentary coalition expanded after the vote, but it failed to win an absolute majority. The far-right Chega party also grew to become the largest opposition party, surpassing the Socialists. This was Portugal’s third early election in three years.

 

Energy Department supercomputer. The U.S. Department of Energy will buy components for its next supercomputer from Nvidia and Dell that have artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. The supercomputer is slated for delivery in 2026 and will use Nvidia chips designed for AI calculations to run simulations for energy and scientific research. Energy Secretary Chris Wright called the new machine essential for winning the global AI race.

 

China skips security forum. China’s defense minister is not attending this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, skipping a potential meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Despite a recent trade deescalation between the two countries, Washington has also moved forward with new tech export restrictions and announced plans to revoke Chinese student visas. Yesterday U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that trade talks between the countries are “a bit stalled.”

 

Gaza ceasefire proposal. Israel endorsed a new U.S. plan for a truce with Hamas, the White House press secretary said yesterday. Hamas said it would study the plan before giving an official response. Unnamed Egyptian and Hamas officials told the Associated Press that the deal includes a sixty-day pause in fighting, a pull-back of Israeli forces from recent advances, assurances of long-term truce negotiations, daily access for hundreds of aid trucks, and the release of ten living hostages and more than 1,100 Palestinian prisoners.


Nigeria’s oil incentives. Nigeria will offer tax breaks to oil companies that demonstrate they are cutting costs, President Bola Tinubu mandated in an executive order yesterday. It is the latest in a series of regulatory changes designed to attract more investment in the country’s energy sector. Incentives that Tinubu announced last year did not immediately lead to investments in new oil fields, but some companies increased their activities in existing fields.

 
 

Does Trump’s New Syria Approach Affect Refugees?

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh

Saudi Press Agency/Handout/Reuters

Trump’s recent decision to lift sanctions on Syria and meet with its new president is a major shift, but it may not mean that Syrian refugees should return home any time soon, CFR’s Christina Bouri writes in this In Brief.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, the UN Security Council discusses Sudan and South Sudan.
  • Tomorrow, OPEC and allied producers hold a virtual call to determine oil output levels.
  • On Sunday, Poland holds a presidential runoff vote and Mexico holds a vote to elect judges.
 
 

The Tariff Costs Are Worse Than You Think

U.S. President Donald Trump holds a chart next to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick as Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C.,

Carlos Barria/Reuters

Despite recent trade deals with China and the United Kingdom, U.S. companies and consumers will face significant tariffs, compliance costs, and uncertainty without a more significant pivot from the Trump administration, the National Foreign Trade Council’s Jake Colvin writes for RealEcon.

 
 

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