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The Big Beautiful Bill: A Tax Cut Triumph or a Looming Disaster?
On May 18, 2025, the House Budget Committee finally approved President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” a sweeping tax reform package aimed at extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and introducing new tax breaks. This victory marks a pivotal moment for Trump’s agenda. The bill promises significant tax relief for millions, but failure to pass it could unleash the largest tax hike in history, hitting American families and businesses hard.
The bill permanently extends TCJA’s core provisions, including lower income tax rates across all brackets, a doubled standard deduction (rising to $30,000 for joint filers in 2025), and a higher estate tax exemption of $15 million. It also introduces Trump’s campaign promises: no taxes on tips, overtime pay, or Social Security benefits, plus a new deduction for auto loan interest on American-made cars. Small businesses benefit from a permanent 23% pass-through deduction, projected to create over 1 million jobs annually, while manufacturers gain from 100% expensing for new factories. The Tax Foundation estimates these measures will boost long-run GDP by 1.1%, adding 847,000 full-time jobs, and increase after-tax incomes by 2.9% in 2026. The top 5%—households earning over $461,000—stand to gain the most, securing over 45% of the benefits, with the top 0.1% potentially gaining $389,000 annually. Middle-class families also see relief, with a family of four earning the median $80,610 saving $1,695—equivalent to nine weeks of groceries—through lower rates and an expanded Child Tax Credit of $2,500 per child.
Hardline Republicans on the House Budget Committee initially blocked it, demanding deeper spending cuts, and relented during a rare Sunday night session on May 18.
Speaker Mike Johnson and the bill’s proponents made good, strategic adjustments. The original bill scheduled Medicaid work requirements to begin in 2029, giving states time to adjust systems and enforce safeguards. To win their support, the timeline was accelerated—potentially to as early as 2027, though exact details remain undisclosed. Additionally, the bill’s provisions for green energy tax credits, enacted under Biden’s administration, were revised for a faster phase-out, addressing conservative demands to reduce subsidies they labeled the “green new scam.” These changes were critical, as the four dissenters shifted from “no” votes to “present” during the Sunday night vote, allowing the bill to pass 17-16.
If the bill fails, the TCJA’s expiration after 2025 will trigger a $4 trillion tax hike over a decade, the largest in U.S. history. The average taxpayer would face a 22% tax increase, with a family of four losing $1,700 annually. The Child Tax Credit would halve for 40 million families, dropping to $1,000 per child, and 91% of taxpayers would see their standard deduction slashed to $16,525 for joint filers. Small businesses would be crushed by a 43.4% top tax rate without the pass-through deduction, impacting 26 million entrepreneurs. The bottom 60%—households earning under $96,000—would lose the most relative to their income, gaining just $400 annually if the bill passes but facing disproportionate cuts if it fails.
Supporters praise the projected economic growth—$284 billion from manufacturing alone—which will offset 16% of revenue losses, securing 6 million jobs.
The stakes are high as the bill moves to the House floor. Act for America is rallying support, urging citizens to pressure lawmakers to pass this legislation. If it fails, the tax hike could derail Trump’s economic vision, leaving Americans to bear the burden of a broken system. The choice is clear: secure these tax cuts for a prosperous future, or face a fiscal storm that could reshape the nation’s economy for decades.
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