Today's Brew analyzes the incumbent success rate in June’s state legislative primaries + highlights recent coronavirus news  
The Daily Brew
Welcome to the Monday, June 15, Brew. Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
  1. June 2 & 9 state legislative primary recaps
  2. St. Paul school board member dies of COVID-19, Utah gubernatorial candidate diagnosed
  3. Local roundup

June 2 and 9 state legislative primary recaps

Voters in 10 states cast ballots in a total of 436 state legislative primaries between June 2 and June 9. In those primaries, 41 incumbents were defeated—about 17% of all incumbents who ran. Due to delays in releasing final results, data for Nevada and Georgia are not included in this analysis.

The states holding legislative elections on those dates were:

  • Idaho 
  • Indiana 
  • Iowa 
  • Montana
  • New Mexico 
  • Pennsylvania 
  • South Dakota 
  • North Dakota 
  • South Carolina
  • West Virginia

Incumbents ran in 246 of those primaries, or roughly 56% of the total. Of the 41 incumbents defeated, 12 were Democrats and 29 were Republicans.

In all 10 states, there were 82 Democratic primaries compared to 164 for Republicans. 

  • Democratic primaries: The 12 defeated incumbents represent 15% of the Democrats who faced challengers in these elections. 

  • Republican primaries: The 29 defeated incumbents represent 18% of all Republican incumbents in contested primaries in these elections.

Prior to June 2, six state legislative incumbents were defeated in eight states. So far this cycle, 47 incumbents—or 12% of incumbents participating in contested primaries—lost.

In 2018, 63 incumbents—38 Republicans and 25 Democrats—were defeated in state legislative primary elections through June 12. This represented 13% of incumbents facing contested primaries through that date that year.

In March through May of this cycle, six incumbents—four Democrats and two Republicans lost in the primaries in eight states. This was 4% of the incumbents that faced contested primaries in those states.

success rates

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St. Paul school board member dies of COVID-19, Utah gubernatorial candidate diagnosed

We’re tracking the deaths, diagnoses, and quarantines of political incumbents, candidates, and government officials resulting from COVID-19, as well as individuals confirmed to have been tested and found not to carry COVID-19. Here are a couple of recent updates:

  • Marny Xiong, who was an at-large representative on the St. Paul Board of Education, died of COVID-19 on June 7. Her family released a statement on June 8 notifying the public of her death. Xiong is the second local politician that Ballotpedia has identified to have died as a result of COVID-19. The first was Jersey City Council representative Michael Yun, who died on April 6. Ballotpedia has identified six state or local politicians who have died due to coronavirus.

  • Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman (R) announced that he had tested positive for COVID-19 on June 10. Huntsman, who served as governor of the Beehive State between 2005 and 2009, is once again running for governor in Utah in 2020. Utah conducts elections entirely by mail. In April, Governor Gary Herbert (R) signed legislation canceling in-person early and Election Day voting for the primary due to the coronavirus pandemic and requiring that voters have their ballots postmarked by June 30.

Below is a selection of the states either reopening today or whose stay-at-home orders are expiring. A more complete listing can be found in Friday’s edition of our Documenting America's Path to Recovery newsletter, or you can click here to check out our page on state reopening plans. Want to receive a daily summary tracking and analyzing state and local plans for recovery? Click here to subscribe to our daily Documenting America's Path to Recovery newsletter.

  • Arkansas: The state is entering into Phase Two of its reopening plan. Phase Two will allow open businesses with a capacity limit to increase that limit, although they will not be allowed to operate at full capacity.

  • Delaware: The state is entering into Phase Two of its reopening plan. Restaurants, retail stores, and malls will increase in capacity from 30% to 60%. Personal care services and gyms will remain at 30% occupancy

  • Kentucky: Center-based child-care programs and day camps are allowed to reopen, subject to capacity restrictions.

  • New Hampshire: The state’s stay-at-home order expires today at 11:59 p.m. This will also end the 10-person gathering size limit. Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said he would not set a new limit on gathering sizes. Five states are still under stay-at-home orders. 

  • New Jersey: The state is entering into Phase Two of its reopening plan.

  • Vermont: Out-of-state travelers to Vermont will need to complete either a 14-day quarantine or a 7-day quarantine followed by a negative COVID-19 test result, effective today.

Local roundup

Here’s our weekly roundup of local election results and previews.

Atlanta, Georgia

Voters in Atlanta approved a measure June 9 reauthorizing the city to levy the 1% Municipal Option Sales Tax (MOST). Seventy-two (72%) percent of residents voted to approve the measure and 28% voted against.

Heading into the election, the city had levied a 1% sales tax that was set to expire on September 30, 2020. The ballot measure was designed to allow Atlanta to renew the 1% sales tax for four years in order to raise $750 million to fund water and sewer projects. It was put on the ballot by a vote of the Atlanta City Council.

The original sales tax was in place from October 1, 2004, through September 30, 2008, and was used to partially fund Atlanta water and sewer projects. Voters approved measures to renew the tax for additional four-year periods in 2008, 2012, and 2016.

Upcoming local elections

We’ll be bringing you coverage of municipal primary elections on June 23. In these seven jurisdictions, voters will decide primaries for two county council districts, 15 city council seats, nine civil court judges, and the borough president of Queens, New York: 

 

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The Lucy Burns Institute, publisher of Ballotpedia, is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. All donations are tax deductible to the extent of the law. Donations to the Lucy Burns Institute or Ballotpedia do not support any candidates or campaigns.
 


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