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Daily News Brief

May 19, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering the results of weekend elections in Europe, as well as...

  • Israel’s new aid permission and military operations in Gaza

  • Trump’s calls with Russia’s and Ukraine’s leaders

  • Reported Chinese support for Pakistan’s military

 
 

Top of the Agenda

In a surprise result, a centrist defeated a far-right candidate in Romania’s presidential runoff yesterday by an around eight-point margin. Voter participation surged since the first round of the election, in which the far-right candidate ranked first. Meanwhile, Portugal and Poland saw moderate forces narrowly beat out the far right in elections yesterday—although a runoff in Poland could flip the result. 

 

Roller coaster in Romania. Romania’s presidential vote was a do-over after a court annulled its previous iteration in November following accusations of Russian meddling. Pro-Russia candidate Călin Georgescu won that now-cancelled vote. Although he was barred from participating in the redo election, his close ally George Simion ran and led the first round of voting. Voter participation in yesterday’s runoff surged to its highest level in around twenty-five years. Pro-European centrist Nicușor Dan, mayor of Bucharest, earned around 54 percent of votes compared to Simion’s 46 percent. 

 

Portugal’s parliamentary math. In Portugal’s legislative election yesterday, the ruling center-right Democratic Alliance (DA) party won the most seats, while the center-left Socialists and the far-right Chega party roughly tied for second. The DA said it would not govern with Chega. Final vote counts were still trickling in today, but it appears that Chega’s congressional representation jumped from one seat in 2019 to at least fifty-eight seats this year.


Round one of two in Poland.
Poland held a first-round presidential vote that saw liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski come in a close first with around 31 percent to populist right candidate Karol Nawrocki’s roughly 30 percent. There will be a runoff on June 1. Poland’s president is less powerful than the prime minister but still has the power to shape foreign policy. Current nationalist President Andrzej Duda has limited some of the agenda of the country’s pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

 
 

“After the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, Europe’s right-wing populists anticipated a wave of support for movements embracing [U.S. President Donald] Trump’s antiestablishment, anti-immigrant rhetoric and policies. Despite initial enthusiasm, Trump’s exceptional unpopularity among the European public has put Europe’s right-wing populists—who usually adopt a nationalistic, U.S.- and NATO-critical view—in a complicated position.”

—CFR Fellow Liana Fix and CFR’s Jack Silverman write in this Expert Brief

 

The Trump Effect on Foreign Elections

U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 6, 2025.

Leah Millis/Reuters

President Trump has become the main factor in a wide range of elections held around the globe this year—and probably next as well, CFR Senior Fellow Joshua Kurlantzick writes for Asia Unbound.

 
 

Across the Globe

Aid and ground operations in Gaza. Israel will allow a “basic amount of food” into Gaza in order to prevent a starvation crisis, the prime minister’s office said yesterday. The move ends a nearly three-month blockade on aid. Hours earlier, Israel’s military said it began “extensive ground operations” in the territory. More than one hundred people were killed from Saturday night to Sunday morning, hospitals and medics said. 

 

Trump’s calls on war settlement. President Trump said he would make separate phone calls to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today in an effort to advance a peace deal. Ukraine yesterday said Russia launched its largest overnight drone attack on the country since the start of the war. Zelenskyy met with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio over the weekend. 

 

U.S. credit downgrade. On Friday, Moody’s became the third and final major credit rating agency to lower the United States from its top tier. Fitch Ratings did so in 2023 and so did S&P Global in 2011. Moody’s cited a more than decade-long increase in public debt. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the move “a lagging indicator,” while the White House said it was “focused on fixing [Joe] Biden’s mess.” 

 

China’s satellite support to Pakistan. China helped Pakistan organize its air defense systems and adjust satellite coverage over India during recent cross-border hostilities, the head of a research group under India’s defense ministry told Bloomberg. Indian and Pakistani government bodies did not respond to Bloomberg’s requests for comment; when asked about the report at a press briefing, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson did not comment directly.

 

Bird flu in Brazil. China, the European Union (EU), and South Korea banned the import of Brazilian poultry for sixty days after avian flu was discovered on a commercial bird farm for the first time on Friday. Brazilian authorities said they were isolating the farm in the country’s south and surveilling farms in a six-mile radius. In recent months, bird flu spurred an egg shortage in the United States, while Brazil’s egg exports there increased.

 

EU-UK reset. The EU and the United Kingdom (UK) committed to new security and trade agreements today in what has been described as the biggest reset in relations since Brexit in 2016. They will jointly procure military equipment, ease permissions for UK travelers and some goods to reach the EU, and extend permission for EU boats to use UK fishing grounds. 

 

El Salvador journalists flee. Three members of the top independent investigative news site in El Salvador fled the country this month amid reports the government might be preparing to arrest them. Their outlet, El Faro, reported on alleged deals between President Nayib Bukele and the country’s gangs. A Salvadoran presidential commissioner for freedom of expression said he did not know if there were arrest warrants against the journalists and that reporters can “say whatever they want” as long as they do not commit crimes.


Conflict in northeastern Nigeria.
Militant attacks in northeastern Borno state have prompted at least twenty thousand people to flee the town of Marte, the state governor said. Local officials have observed an increase in suspected attacks by Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province militants in 2025; Nigeria’s military had been able to push back against Boko Haram in recent years.  

 
 

Washington Should Pay Attention to Moody’s Downgrade

Signage is seen outside the Moody's Corporation headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 12, 2021.

Andrew Kelly/Reuters

Moody’s decision to downgrade U.S. sovereign debt shows that the country’s current fiscal path has costs. Some investors in U.S. Treasuries may be more motivated to trim their bond holdings, CFR Senior Fellow Rebecca Patterson writes for the New York Times.

 
 

What’s Next

  • Today, the World Health Assembly begins in Geneva.

  • Tomorrow, the information technology fair COMPUTEX begins in Taiwan.

  • Tomorrow, the International Booker Prize winner is announced in London.

  • Tomorrow, the Qatar Economic Forum begins in Doha.

 
 

Unpacking India-Pakistan Hostilities

A member of Indian security personnel stands guard on a highway leading to South Kashmir's Pahalgam, following a suspected militant attack in Marhama village, on April 23, 2025.

Adnan Abidi/Reuters

The April 22 terrorist attack in Kashmir and subsequent hostilities carry implications for regional security, great-power competition, and U.S. foreign policy in South Asia. CFR Distinguished Fellow Kenneth I. Juster and the Stimson Center’s Daniel Markey discuss with CFR Adjunct Senior Fellow Alyssa Ayres in this CFR meeting.

 
 

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