Trying to understand Donald Trump’s ever-shifting approach to foreign policy is like nailing jello to a wall.
But with the president in the Middle East this week, we might be seeing the solidification of a second-term ‘Trump Doctrine’ – or at least the closest thing to one that we might ever get.
If the trend holds, it has massive implications for Israelis and Palestinians, and for the future of politics and foreign policy here in the United States as well.
As always, there is the grift: Middle Eastern leaders seem to be laundering potentially billions in bribes through Trump family crypto schemes and property deals. Qatar delivering a $400 million ‘Palace in the Sky’ 747 for Donald Trump to keep is just the tip of a corruption iceberg.
But there’s something else happening as well: A focus on deals, transactionalism, political wins and MAGA isolationism that is reshaping America’s approach to the Middle East in some unpredictable ways – and much of it actually showing daylight with Netanyahu’s policies.
There was the direct negotiation with Hamas for the long-overdue release of Edan Alexander, which completely sidestepped Netanyahu, and would not have happened if it had gone through him.
There’s Trump’s willingness to explore a nuclear deal with Iran that would be much more effective in setting back the program than reckless military action.
There’s the deal to end strikes on the Houthis in exchange for the end of attacks on international shipping, which cut Israel and Netanyahu out, meaning that Israeli civilians will continue to deal with attacks on Ben Gurion airport and sirens and sprints to bomb shelters as long as the war continues. There’s the end of sanctions against Syria and a high-profile meeting with its leader, despite Israeli concerns.
We agree with many of these policy steps Trump has taken, while in other instances we disagree. But either way, it is clear that the man sitting in the Oval is much less interested in consulting with Prime Minister Netanyahu and with Israel than he used to be.
For Netanyahu, who used to have his settler allies drive policy in Trump’s first term, Trump 2.0 must present a shock. As for Trump, his friends in the Gulf are showering him with deals and wins – when he looks at Benjamin Netanyahu’s and Itamar Ben Gvir’s Israel he sees only headaches:
- An endless war in Gaza and unfathomable human suffering, which sapped his predecessor of political support;
- A Prime Minister bent on sabotaging Iran talks while pressing for another war;
- No ability to integrate Israel into the regional deals that Trump so values as long as the Gaza war continues.
It does not have to be this way. Pursuing the policies that 70% of Israelis are now calling for, and that J Street has long advocated, is not only the right thing to do and the best outcome for both Israelis and Palestinians, but it will get Israel on the same page with the United States and the rest of the region.
- Get a deal to free the hostages, get humanitarian aid in and end the war in Gaza;
- Pursue the 23 state solution by rallying the Arab States for a post-war plan that lays the groundwork for rebuilding Gaza, normalizing ties with Israel, isolating Hamas and recognizing a Palestinian state;
- Lock in a nuclear deal with Iran that cuts off their path to a nuclear weapon and avoids another war in the Middle East.
Whether it’s tomorrow, or after elections and the formation of a new Israeli government, when this pivot comes Trump will see wins and opportunity. That is what will make Israel strategically relevant to him again.
We can never compromise our Jewish, democratic values, and we must stand proudly for the rights and freedoms of Americans, Israelis and Palestinians alike. We cannot agree with or condone so many of the inexcusable and horrific actions that Trump has taken both abroad and especially here at home.
However, it is possible that his new approach to the Middle East creates an opportunity. An opportunity to push for a new policy approach in Israel, one consistent with Israeli, Palestinian and American values and interests. We must continue to work towards a world that can deliver lasting peace, freedom and safety to Israelis and Palestinians alike.
As we continue to navigate this unfathomably dark and difficult moment, I want to thank you, sincerely, for being with us.
Yours,
Ilan Goldenberg
Senior Vice President of Policy, J Street
