How much does it cost to remove unauthorized immigrants? Lawmakers in the United States are contemplating $140 billion for U.S. immigration enforcement in part to finance President Donald Trump’s promise of mass deportation, which the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimates costs $17,121 per individual. Beyond this record level of immigration funding sought (by comparison, the U.S. government spent $187 billion on federal immigration enforcement between 1986 and 2012), the administration has proposed a complement: Pay people to leave on their own. DHS has said it will give $1,000 to unauthorized immigrants who declare they have “self-deported” through the government’s former CBP One app, now rebranded CBP Home. The “pay-to-go” concept is not a new one, though often it is focused on lawfully present migrants. But if prior experiences in Europe and elsewhere offer any indication, the United States might need to open its checkbook wider and manage its expectations. Historically, these programs have been tapped by only small numbers of immigrants. Sweden currently offers “repatriation assistance” of 10,000 kronor (about $1,000) per adult who returns to their origin country, with a cap of 40,000 kronor (a little over $4,000) for families. Only about 70 applications for repatriation assistance were approved in 2023, primarily to refugees and their families. As the government seeks to increase departures, the payment will rise dramatically to 350,000 kronor (about $36,000) per adult next year, with a cap of 600,000 ($62,000) per family. This payment hike is going ahead despite a government inquiry concluding that doing so would increase voluntary returns by only about 700 people and would be a net drain on government coffers for 15 years (though it would yield savings afterwards). Sweden’s system is based on a model in Denmark, which offers money to people whose asylum applications have been refused or who retract their protection requests. Denmark offers up to 40,000 kroner (about $6,000) in total support; in the past, it had offered Syrians as much as 175,000 kroner (about $26,000). The United Kingdom, meanwhile, offers up to 3,000 pounds (nearly $4,000) to unsuccessful asylum seekers and other migrants who leave. Among the recipients are a handful of individuals who relocated to Rwanda, after London canceled its controversial proposal to force even successful asylum seekers to move to the East African country. The pay-to-go history extends back decades. These programs were popular in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, when countries including Czechia, Japan, and Spain offered money to encourage the return of unemployed, legally present immigrants in order to reduce pressures on their recession-afflicted labor markets. The number of returns under these recession-era pay-to-go programs was likewise minimal. Spain, which offered returnees their full unemployment benefits delivered in a lump sum, predicted in 2008 that as many as 87,000 immigrants would take the government up on its offer; only 17,000 had done so by 2011. The problem, in many cases, was that economic conditions in returnees’ origin countries were even more dire. Still, the approach’s alluring simplicity is one reason it has remained popular as a policy option. It remains to be seen whether the U.S. experience will turn out differently and significant numbers will agree to be paid to leave. All the best, Julian Hattem
Editor, Migration Information Source
[email protected] |
