HYR Weekly

A NEWSLETTER FROM THE HOUSTON YOUNG REPUBLICANS

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MAY. 12

Welcome to this week’s newsletter, !

We hope you all had a wonderful Mother’s Day; a friendly reminder that spoiling or calling your mom to tell her you love her doesn’t require a holiday or special occasion.

History was made last week as Pope Leo XIV became the first American to ascend to the papacy.

In Washington, the Trump Administration continued its efforts to instill both order into chaos abroad, and sanity into public policy back home. In Congress, lawmakers continued to negotiate and fine tune the details of the “big, beautiful bill.”

In Texas, the State Legislature advanced proposals to protect the Lone Star State from both federal overreach and hostile foreign nations.

We break it down below.

Matt Murphy

Political Director

Brits Bargain, China Concedes, and Trade Talks Transpire

Last week the Trump Administration revealed a newly established framework for revamped trade relationship with the United Kingdom. Details and formal ratification will take some time to iron out, but key components of the deal include:

A universal 10% tariff on all imports from the UK
An easement of tariffs on British automobiles; 100,000 UK produced cars will be subject to the aforementioned 10% tariff, as opposed to the existing 25% rate
No tariffs on British steel or aluminum
The UK dropping tariffs on American beef, ethanol, sports equipment, and a litany of other products
The UK purchasing $10B of Boeing airplanes
Tax breaks for American tech businesses operating in the UK,
Cheaper access to UK automotive and agricultural markets

The Trump Administration is reportedly close to securing similar trade victories with India, Japan, and Israel; negotiations are ongoing with Vietnam and South Korea.

But the week’s biggest geopolitical development came on Mother’s Day. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer met with the top economic official of the Chinese Communist Party on Sunday in Switzerland. Expectations were that this sit-down meeting would simply reopen a formal dialogue to de-escalate tensions over the trade stalemate.

Instead, President Trump’s Cabinet delivered a trade arrangement.

The importance of and speed which with this agreement transpired is shocking. After decades of economic brinksmanship and not-so-covert financial warfare, the dynamic of our international fiscal relationship with China may have been completely reset over the course of a single meeting.

Technicalities and framework of the trade deal are expected to be released in due time, but here’s what we know so far: the punitive tariffs on China will be rolled back from 145% to 30% for the next three months. China, in exchange, will roll their tariffs on us back from 125% to 10%--also for the next three months. Talks and negotiations will be ongoing over that time span, but the deal is already seemingly acting as jet fuel for the American economy; at time of writing the Dow is already up over 1000 points, and the Nasdaq appears to be on track to exit the bear market (i.e. markets are no longer slumping). Update: Big banks have begun to formally walk back recent predictions that a recession is on the way–and are raising their forecasts for economic growth in wake of the China deal.

It was a crazy week on the foreign affairs front; for the sake of brevity we won’t delve into anything else too deeply, but there were several other significant developments we’re tracking:

President Trump is visiting Saudi Arabia this week, and is floating another Gulf-name-change to regional leaders.
VP Vance softened his rhetoric on Iran, stating he would not be opposed to the maverick nation having a nuclear program for civic energy, just (reasonably) weapons.
Both Trump and Vance conversely hardened their rhetoric on Russia in wake of Ukraine’s formal ratification of our mineral rights deal this past week. Trump said he believes Putin is “stringing him along,” and floated the idea of additional sanctions on Russia. Vance said Putin is requesting far too much from Ukraine in terms of concessions; the White House wants parameters for a diplomatic ceasefire to end the war, and soon. Update: Over the weekend, Putin proposed restarting talks with Ukraine on the 15th; Zelensky called it a “positive sign,“ but is reluctant to engage in diplomatic talks without at least a temporary ceasefire in place. President Trump indicated he’s considering joining the two leaders in person, provided the meeting in Istanbul actually materializes–we’ll see.
India and Pakistan, two nations with nukes and a long history of conflict with each other, escalated military exchanges across their shared border this past week. Thankfully, Secretary Rubio and VP Vance helped broker a ceasefire between the two countries, which was announced on Saturday before things went further off the rails. Let’s hope the uneasy peace holds.

Shots Fired: Soldiers and Virology

Last week, the Supreme Court ruled the Trump Administration can move forward with plans to remove transgender troops from the ranks of our military. The decision is not a final SCOTUS decision, but nonetheless greenlights the Pentagon initiative while further legal action plays out. There are ~4,240 “active” (at least as active as one can be while receiving taxpayer funded gender transition treatment) duty troops on the chopping block; they (respecting their pronouns) have until June 6th to comply with the voluntary self-separation order.

Update: Speaking of the military, the Pentagon issued a new memo ordering the purge of books related to DEI and gender ideology in military libraries.

President Trump issued an EO ending funding for and activities related to gain-of-function research–the virology practice which berthed Covid-19. RFK provided some thought provoking insight and historical context at the signing ceremony of the executive order.

Reconcilable Differences?

Last week (and this coming week too), Congress deliberated over the “big, beautiful bill” the Trump Administration has spearheaded to fundamentally reshape the federal budget. So far, it hasn’t been easy sledding for Speaker Johnson and Congressional Republicans–which is to be expected with legislation of this magnitude.

There are many points of debate at hand, but we’ll highlight a few important ones:

Medicaid: This healthcare safety net for the financially vulnerable has sparked explosive debates in Congress for years. GOP House members have proposed a few creative monetary solutions: implementing work/employment requirements, more frequent programmatic eligibility checks, and removing illegal aliens/non-citizens from Medicaid.
Drug Pricing: The GOP budget would award several countries with “most favored nation” status, slashing the cost of procuring and importing medications produced abroad; the American pharmaceutical industry and their lobbyists are not happy about it.
Taxes: Speaker Johnson faces an uphill battle cutting $4T in government spending, while delivering a $2T tax cut and making the 2017 tax cuts permanent. Meanwhile, the White House’s proposed “populist” budget would create a new 39.6% tax bracket for Americans earning over $2.5M annually–an out of character move for an administration and political party perpetually accused of being in the pocket of big business and wealthy donors, no?

Another proposal would skyrocket taxes on the endowments of elitist institutions of higher education (the Ivies and their ilk)--which, like the vast majority of non-profit public and private universities, are tax-exempt. Harvard’s endowment is ~$52B; if that number were a GDP it’d make them the ~88th richest nation in the world–remind me again why they need federal funding?

Energy/Natural Resources: The drafted budget would bolster federal leasing for oil, natural gas, coal, and a variety of minerals–while reducing royalties (i.e. government fees) on companies securing them. This entails the government selling ~10,000 acres of public lands, primarily in Nevada and Utah; members of Congress in both parties (ex: Ryan Zinke [R-MT-1], former Interior Secretary during President Trump’s first administration) are livid the measure was snuck in at the last minute. Additionally, a number of green energy tax credits/subsidies, remnants of Joe Biden’s infamous “Inflation Reduction” Act, are on the chopping block/will be phased out.

We’ll see how it all shakes out in the coming weeks, but passing a budget reconciliation vehicle which satisfies both moderate and hardline conservatives with very little margin of error for votes on the House Floor is a high-stakes and heavy lift. Here’s hoping House leadership has the muscle for it.

Kemp-ing Ain’t Easy

Governor Brian Kemp [R-GA] announced he will not be running against incumbent Democrat Senator John Ossoff [D-GA] in 2026. Kemp was widely seen by pollsters and pundits as the most viable candidate to flip a Democratic Senate seat in a state which went red in 2024.

A handful of Republicans have been mulling a run for Ossoff’s seat in wake of Kemp’s decision, including: Mike Collins [R-GA-10], Rich McCormick [R-GA-7], Buddy Carter [R-GA-1], and Kelly Loeffler. Carter, at time of writing, is the only candidate who’s formally announced his intent to run. Loeffler, who currently serves as Administrator of the Small Business Administration, and briefly served as Senator for Georgia from 2020 to 2021--has a net worth of ~$800M, and should not be taken lightly.

Marjorie Taylor Greene [R-GA-14] had been mulling whether to run as well, but announced Friday evening she will not be seeking higher federal office–she didn’t rule out running for Governor however.

The GOP primary will surely be entertaining; here’s hoping whoever wins it has the means to kick the incumbent Senator’s Ossoff his seat in the general election.

In Other News

RIP former Supreme Court Justice David Souter.
Fox News correspondent Peter Doocy took a second loss in his recent battle with birds at the White House.
The Democrat Mayor of Newark was arrested for storming an ICE facility.
Rep. Maxine Waters [D-CA-35] attempted to grill Treasury Secretary Bessent at a Congressional hearing last week; Bessent admitted during the course of it that Waters is much better at dancing the electric slide than he.
New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has banned Twitter (aka X: The Everything App).
DOGE discovered over 100k then-active federal government employees illegally received unemployment benefits. Let’s hope they’re soon-to-be former government employees.
The Trump Administration fired the (former) sitting Librarian of Congress–the one who decided it was a good idea to lend the flute of founding father James Madison to Lizzo.
Sen. Bernie Sanders [Champagne Socialist Party-VT] has spent over $221K this year on his “Fight the Oligarchy” fundraising tour. Ironic to say the least.
Say what you will about President Trump’s bravado–he gifted us with two of the funniest bits ever uttered in the Oval Office this past week.
Happy 18th birthday to Kai Trump, competitive golfer and granddaughter of the President.
Freshman Congressman Brandon Gill [R-TX-26] and his wife welcomed their second child to the world on Friday.

Texas is Not for Sale

By Mark McCaig

The Texas Voice

Senate Bill 17, which would prohibit foreign adversaries from owning land in Texas, has been scheduled to be considered by the Texas House on Thursday.

The legislation is one of Lt. Governor Dan Patrick’s priority bills, and a companion bill – House Bill 17 – is a priority of Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows. Governor Greg Abbott has also publicly voiced support for the legislation.

While some leaders within the Republican Party of Texas initially raised concerns that the bill was not strong enough, a group of activists, including Republican Party of Texas Chairman Abraham George, released a statement last week endorsing the revised version of the bill.

Senate Bill 17 and House Bill 17 fulfill the Republican Party of Texas’ legislative priority entitled “Texas is Not for Sale.”

Texas Sovereignty Act

House Bill 796 by State Representative Cecil Bell, Jr., also known as the Texas Sovereignty Act, is headed to the Texas Senate after passing the Texas House on Wednesday.

The Texas Sovereignty Act establishes a framework in which acts by the federal government that are determined to be “unconstitutional federal actions” will have “no legal effect” in Texas. The legislation also mandates that all political subdivisions in Texas may not recognize an act deemed to be an “unconstitutional federal action” as having any legal effect.

The legislation creates a Joint Legislative Committee on Constitutional Enforcement composed of six members of the Texas House appointed by the Speaker and six members of the Texas Senate appointed by the Lieutenant Governor. The Committee would have the authority to review any action by the federal government to determine whether the action was constitutional.

Should the Committee determine that an action by the federal government was unconstitutional, that finding would be sent to the Texas House and the Texas Senate for a vote. If both chambers, by majority vote, agree that a federal action was unconstitutional, that determination would then be sent to the Governor for final approval.

Should it become law, the Texas Sovereignty Act would likely be the subject of a legal challenge. Under the bill, the Texas Attorney General “may defend the state to prevent the implementation and enforcement of a federal action declared to be an unconstitutional federal action.”